Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data for CPIP was released on Tuesday November 1st. On a rolling 3 months basis year over year total construction has declined every month since March when growth was 12.4 […]
General Motors announced on Wednesday that it will lay off more than 2000 employees at its Lansing Grand River and Lordstown assembly plants. GM said it will “align production with demand” as customers continue to shift from cars to crossovers and trucks. The third shift will be suspended indefinitely at both locations beginning in mid-January. […]
The Premium article below was originally produced for our Premium members on Wednesday afternoon. Over the last couple of days SMU has had conversations with a number of our members regarding our views on the construction markets. This is an analysis which was shared with our Premium level members yesterday and we have decided to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 17th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
On Wednesday of this week I participated in the monthly HARDI conference call (see article in tonight’s newsletter). During the call one of the executives from an east coast HVAC wholesaler told the group that he didn’t believe prices could or would move much higher from here. I disagreed with him. One of the justifications […]
Nonresidential construction planning took a jump in October, according to the latest survey by Dodge Data and Analytics. The Dodge Momentum Index grew 4.1 percent in October to 133.6, nearly reversing September’s loss. Commercial planning increased by 6.1 percent sequentially and by 20 percent year-over-year. “This suggests that despite being in a more mature phase […]
We are setting up this issue of Steel Market Update to be published at 11 PM Eastern Time. By then the polls will be closed in most, if not all, of the lower 48 states of the union. We may well know who will be the new President of the United States. Either way, whether […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through August 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for August 2016 increased 9.6 percent […]
Construction demand in the private sector is driving increases in construction employment and offsetting declines in public sector jobs, said the Associated General Contractors of America in their November press release. Residential construction employment grew 5.4 percent year-over-year in October while nonresidential construction jobs grew 1.4 percent. AGC notes that public construction needs the support […]
Two more days and we will all (I hope) be able to breathe once again. This is the last Sunday before the election here in the United States when we will decide who will be President and, just as important, who will control the House and Senate. The world is watching so I hope that […]
US auto sales were at their highest seasonally adjusted annual rate of the year. However, Ward Auto’s SAAR estimate of 17.9 million marked the third month that the SAAR declined year-over-year. The October 2015 rate was 18.1 million. The year-to-date SAAR was 17.3 million, unchanged from the 10 month total in 2015, according to Wards, […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 16th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
I have had a number of conversations with steel mills and steel buyers regarding when the next flat rolled steel price increase would be announced by the domestic mills? My opinion is the mills will use the new ferrous scrap settlement prices combined with stronger order books as the reasons for going out after perhaps […]
Gibraltar Industries, as a leading manufacturer and distributor of building products, has close ties to the steel industry. In the third quarter earnings call, Gibraltar Senior Vice President and CFO Ken Smith was asked about how the company is handling the recent steel price increase. Steel increases are monitored multiple times day across the Gibraltar […]
I want to spend a few moments to discuss an issue that I know is a sore point to the CEO’s at the steel mills. Lourenco Goncalves brought it up in a discussion we had this morning and that is why service centers (and others) do not sign or allow comments made to Steel Market […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is adjusting our Price Momentum Indicator to “Higher” from Neutral. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices in the United States and Canada will move higher over the next 30 to 60 days. There are a number of reasons why we have chosen to make this move now, here […]
Our next flat rolled steel market trends analysis will not begin until next Monday, November 7th. We will begin our November surveys on the 7th and the 21st of the month. If you would like to be added to our invitee list please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. We currently have about 575 people on […]
With all of the domestic steel mills announcing $30 per ton price increases either late last week or early this week, the industry is waiting to see if there was a surge of orders and how those orders have impacted lead times. Everyone knows if lead times begin to extend then buyers will have no […]
Home prices in August rose by 5.3 percent annually in August according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. The 20-city composite gained 5.1 percent annually. Portland, Seattle and Denver drove gains during the past seven months. On a month-over-month basis the National Index showed a 0.5 percent increase in August. […]
New home sales rose 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 in September, according to data from U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Compared to a year ago, sales of single-family houses increased 29.8 percent. The increase follows downward revisions to June, July and August. The median […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the 15th consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
We continue to watch flat rolled steel prices as anytime the mills announce a price increase it takes time to develop the “target” price. You have to remember that there is a range of prices – not everyone was paying $470 per ton for hot rolled coil before the price increase announcements were made. Some […]
Steel Market Update has been reporting flat rolled steel service centers had reached the point of “capitulation” earlier this month. History has shown that when the service centers reach the point of capitulation they tend to support flat rolled steel price increases being made by the domestic steel industry. Essentially, the steel distributors are attempting […]
Last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported September shipments and inventories for the U.S. flat rolled steel distributors. We have already produced a couple of articles for our Executive and Premium level members regarding the overall numbers. Today we are analyzing the MSCI data using our Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model and […]
We have an article about this in tonight’s newsletter as well but I want to make sure that everyone is aware that our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop is being held in Huntsville, Alabama on January 24 & 25, 2017. As part of this workshop we will tour the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) made two market adjustments on Friday afternoon (Friday, October 21st). We have adjusted the range on our hot rolled index to $440 per ton on the low end up to $500 per ton on the high side. Our average is now $470 per ton ($23.50.cwt). This is $10 per ton lower […]
Ford Motor Co. announced last week it will temporarily idle four plants including the Kansas City assembly plant that produces the F-150 pickup truck. The temporary shutdowns are a result of a slowdown in the market and will help Ford match production to demand as well as meet end-of-year inventory targets. In the U.S., the […]
On Friday I got a number of messages from people wanting to know how they can get information about a price increase announcement being made as soon as it comes out (or shortly thereafter). Right now what I try to do when announcements come out is to put it out on my Twitter account (@SMUSteel) […]
We saw a single data point “bounce” this week in both the Current and Future SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes. Does it mean anything significant? In our opinion it is too early to tell. Current Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in […]
Since Monday of this week Steel Market Update has been conducting a survey of the flat rolled steel market place. During the process SMU probes about a number of key topics of importance to buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel. One of the areas we deem to be very important is the status of […]