As steel prices ease week after week, the power position in price negotiations between steel mills and steel purchasers continues to rest with buyers, as it has since June. According to our latest check on the market, a high percentage of buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an […]
Steel mill lead times declined across the board this week for all products tracked by SMU. Our latest lead times analysis shows that production times on sheet products decreased by 0.2–0.5 weeks compared to our previous market check two weeks ago, while plate lead times dipped 0.1 weeks. On average, lead times retracted by 0.3 weeks compared to […]
Don’t look now but sheet price erosion continues, with tags across all flat-rolled products inching lower this week, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. For some time now we’ve been trying to gauge SMU survey respondents’ sentiment and their sense of market direction by asking when they think HRC prices will bottom out […]
The news about AD/CVD orders being removed from Brazil on Friday was notable in that it bucked, in a small way, the trend toward regionalism and protectionism that we’ve seen growing since at least 2014. I noted in my initial writeup – as did Lewis Leibowitz in his deeper dive – that the market impact […]
Nearly two-thirds of US states added construction jobs month-on-month (MoM) in September. Most also boosted construction employment during the past twelve months, according to Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) figures. AGC said the job gains were welcome news even if significant labor shortages probably prevented an even bigger upswing in employment. “While it is encouraging […]
Well, earnings season is now well underway. We’ve seen the early reporters like steel processor Worthington Steel (who announced it will be splitting off its steel segment and creating two separate, publicly traded businesses), as well as tube producer Webco, and steel and metal manufacturer Commercial Metals Co. all report strong results in their latest earnings. […]
Existing-home sales shrank in September, retreating for an eighth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Three out of the four major US regions saw sales decline month-over-month (MoM) in September while sales in the West held steady. Sales were down across each region year-over-year (YoY). September sales fell 1.5% from August […]
US light vehicle (LV) sales grew in September, coming in at 1.15 million units, unadjusted. Last month’s total was a 10.8% increase year-on-year (YoY), the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. The YoY gain was just the second since July 2021. While this was the second consecutive month of YoY increases, it was helped […]
North American auto assemblies declined by 8.7% in September after reaching their highest mark in nearly two years the month prior. Despite the lower output in September, production was a hefty 39.6% higher year-on-year (YoY) and still the third-best total year-to-date (YTD), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing […]
What a difference a week can make. The lack of clarity in the short-to-medium-term direction presently in steel seems to be stumping maybe even the best and the brightest of flat-rolled buyers. And perhaps as Michael Cowden indicated in SMU’s prior Final Thoughts, the steel market might be somewhere in the middle — in-between bearish […]
A new railcar manufacturing facility will soon be built in Washington County, Md. Hitachi Rail announced plans for a $70 million factory to build all types of trains to meet growing demand in North America’s rail market. Construction of the facility’s building will use 1,050 tons of steel including joists, girders, and structural steel columns. […]
Investing further in its US operations, agricultural and heavy equipment manufacturer Deere & Co. is reshoring production of a certain cotton harvester model back from China. The steel end user is expanding its operations in Thibodaux, La., with a $29.8 million investment, according to a news release from Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards. A new […]
Builder confidence fell for the tenth straight month in October, while traffic of prospective buyers fell to its lowest level since 2012 (excluding the two-month period at the onset of the pandemic), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said. The report, in conjunction with the Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), said that rising […]
Flat Rolled = 52.7 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 50.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat rolled supply on hand edged down in September, reflecting a higher daily shipment rate. At the end of September, service centers carried 52.7 shipping days of supply of flat rolled, down from 53.9 shipping […]
I made a contrarian case for optimism in my last Final Thoughts. Our latest survey results indicate I was more contrarian than I realized. For starters, there has been speculation in both the physical and futures markets that a strike or lockout at US Steel could catch buyers off guard and send prices spiraling upward. […]
US heating and cooling equipment shipments rebounded 12% in August to 1.99 million units, according to data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Total shipments in August were down 3% from levels one year earlier. The average monthly shipments level for the first eight months of 2022 is now 2.02 million units. […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices both saw slight declines this week, following modest gains two weeks prior. Sentiment has trended downward overall since May, with buyers attributing their dismal outlooks to weakening demand, high inventory costs, and recession concerns. SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index measures how steel buyers and sellers feel about their […]
Time for a contrarian, optimistic thought experiment. First the bad news: Sentiment is increasingly bearish on months of falling steel and scrap prices, nearly all respondents to our latest survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower still, and flattish lead times provide paltry evidence for a rebound. A quick check of the headlines […]
Steel mill lead times were relatively unchanged this week for four of the five products tracked by Steel Market Update. Our latest lead times analysis shows that production times on hot-rolled steel held steady compared to our previous market check. Galvanized, Galvalume, and plate lead times all extended just 0.1 weeks, while cold rolled lead […]
The prices contractors pay for construction materials and services — chiefly for new nonresidential construction — jumped 12.6% year-on-year (YoY) in September despite a slight 0.2% decline month-on-month (MoM), the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) reported in its latest analysis of government data. AGC cautioned that the industry is suffering mostly from inflation, and […]
With steel prices continuing to ease, buyers clearly hold the upper hand in price negotiations with mills. Market dynamics have turned 180 degrees in the past six months, from a seller’s market in March and April to a strong buyer’s market today. According to our latest steel market survey, a high percentage of buyers continue to report […]
On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report card on the US economy’s performance with its September jobs report. The results, though surprisingly upbeat, point to potentially more troublesome days ahead, both personally and collectively for the steel industry. So here are just a few thoughts to ponder as October nears […]
We’ve spilled a lot of ink over labor contract talks between US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. That issue is no doubt important. But here are two more that are just as important, if not more so. And you should have both on your radar as you start this week. First is the […]
The Dodge Momentum Index saw a sizable increase in September, accelerating by 5.7% last month over the upwardly revised reading for August, according to data and analytics from the Dodge Construction Network. The index registered 183.2 in September, up from 173.4 in August. The leading index for commercial real estate measures data about planned nonresidential […]
Sheet pricing continues to grind lower and contract negotiations drag on. Let’s first look at why prices have been slipping and think about a few theories as to who or what the culprit might be. Spot Market Dynamics I’ve heard from buyers in the Midwest that discounts for large-volume orders negotiated by an integrated producer […]
The ongoing trend for steel sheet prices has remained mostly flat over the past several weeks, and this week was really no exception. We’ve seen a tightening of spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and those for cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume. And the trend of narrowing spreads is even more pronounced when it comes to plate. […]
Our latest survey results are decidedly mixed. Lead times (like prices) continue to move modestly lower. You can find reasons to support your case in the latest data whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. Let’s take the case for optimism first. Most survey respondents expect lead times to flatten out soon. Some even expect […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index saw a slight uptick this week. The modest gain follows a double-digit decline two weeks prior. Industry sentiment has trended downward since May, with continued concerns about demand, profitability, high-cost inventory, and recession. Despite the increased gloom, SMU’s Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index also bounced back this […]
Our most recent lead time data is flashing a clear warning signal when it comes to plate prices, and so too are plate prices abroad – which in theory offer massive discounts to domestic numbers. Let’s start with plate lead times, which we released today along with lead time figures for sheet products. Plate lead […]
Steel mill lead times shrunk across the board this week, with the processing time narrowing for all five products we track. SMU’s latest lead times analysis shows that production times on hot rolled, galvanized, and plate products declined 0.1–0.3 weeks compared to our previous check on the market, while cold rolled and Galvalume lead times […]