Category: Analysis

Global steel output fell in December, led by cuts in China, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) said in its latest monthly report. Annual totals in 2023 saw a similar trend.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined further this week, easing to their lowest level since late November. And while domestic tags remain notably more expensive than offshore product, the premium has declined as imported hot band tags have moved higher.

What's being talked about in the US steel market this week?

This earnings season will hit a little different. U.S. Steel has announced that it won’t be hosting an earnings call. While this silence is normal during an acquisition process, it does alter a staple of the earnings landscape.

India-based Tata Steel is to close down the two blast furnaces at its loss-making Port Talbot works in South Wales, UK, during a four-year switch to EAF-based steel making. Under the proposals, 2,800 jobs are at risk.

Domestic production of raw steel edged lower for a second straight week, according to the most recent data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

This latest SMU steel market survey is a snapshot of a sheet market inflecting lower. A significant 43% of survey respondents said that the hot-rolled (HR) coil market has already peaked. Compare that to only 8% when we released our last steel market survey on Jan. 5.

CRU forecasts that global demand for steelmaking raw materials will fall month over month (m/m) between mid-January and mid-February. The major downward pressure on raw materials demand will come from China, where steel end-use demand will fall toward the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday (Feb. 10–17).

The premium plate has held over hot-rolled coil (HRC) has been narrowing but remains elevated compared to historical levels.

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, […]

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index jumped this week, while the Future Sentiment Index remained flat, according to our most recent survey data.

This time of year my thoughts often turn to the weather. Specifically yesterday, heat cranked up, as I sped to a café because of an Internet service outage. I

The slipping lead times for flat-rolled steel were not just due to the holiday slowdown, it seems, as production times for four out of five products contracted again this week.

What are people in the steel marketplace talking about this week?

Domestic buyers of steel sheet said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data.

US steel exports were flat from October to November, but November took the prize for the fewest monthly exports year to date in 2023.

There seems to be a growing consensus that the US sheet market has peaked at a high level and could begin losing ground from here. Whether declines happen quickly or whether sheet prices bop around at current levels for a few weeks more is the primary question.

US service center flat-rolled steel inventories surged in December with the seasonal slowdown in shipments. At the end of December, service centers carried 64.8 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data, up from 54 days in November.

Turkish scrap import prices increased last week with CRU’s assessment for HMS1/2 80:20 at $423 per metric ton (t) CFR, up by $7/t week over week (w/w) but down $2/t month over month (m/m). This was driven by a pickup in buying activity.

Bloomberg has reported that Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might not close until 2025 – well after the Q2/Q3 2024 close date both companies have guided toward. That’s because a national security review of the deal ($14.9 billion if you include the USS debt Nippon Steel would assume) by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) could take longer than initially expected

The spread between cold-rolled coil (CRC) and hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices jumped during the week of Jan. 8 as cold rolled tags continued to rise while hot rolled tags held steady.

The ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India) joint venture (JV) aims to have 24 Mt/y of crude steel capacity by 2029, making the Hazira works in Gujarat the planet’s largest single-site integrated steel complex, says ArcelorMittal chairman Lakshmi Mittal. A first-phase expansion to 15 Mt/y of crude steel capacity is on schedule to be finished […]

It’s been a sloppy start to the year for domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and ferrous scrap markets. One of the loudest things to happen in HR this year might be something that didn’t happen at all. Namely, Nucor didn’t follow competitor Cleveland-Cliffs higher when Cliffs announced a price hike to start the year.

SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects this past week, including inventory, demand, steel sheet prices, imports, and what people are talking about in today’s marketplace. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words. We’d like to hear your thoughts, too! Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be […]

Pig iron prices rose month over month (MoM) in all major regions aside from Europe on improved buying. Demand in the US remains robust while market participants report that availability of Brazilian material increased after tightening a month prior. Meanwhile, Ukrainian export capacity increased due to greater access to temporary sea corridors.

I expected that we’d start off January with prime scrap prices modestly up if for no other reason than industrial activity typically slows down over the holidays. And mills’ appetite for scrap typically increases in anticipation of stronger Q1 order activity.

Steel prices continued to move higher last month on the back of repeated mill price increases after tags reached a 2023 low of $645 per ton in late September. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices ended December at an average of $1,035 per ton ($51.75 per cwt), rising by $112 per ton during the month.

Domestic steel mill shipments increased in November vs. a year earlier, but fell month over month.

Commercial Metals Co. saw robust demand from the construction markets in its first fiscal quarter, which ended on Nov. 30, 2023.

I’d have been surprised if anyone told me just last week that the January scrap market might move lower. What we saw on Friday were offers. Not settlements. And no doubt there are still some twists and turns in store before we can say for sure which way scrap will go.