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    CRU: Raw materials prices have peaked as demand slows down

    Written by Richard Lu


    CRU forecasts that global demand for steelmaking raw materials will fall month over month (m/m) between mid-January and mid-February.

    In Europe, restocking demand for steel is expected to accelerate as we enter 2024. This will support steel margins, which are expected to rise from the current 6% to 8% in April. As this continues to support steel production in the region, raw materials purchases are unlikely to rise further because shipments heading to Europe were already strong over December–January.

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.