We have been hard at work on our 2016 Steel Summit Conference. There is no doubt in my mind that this will be the best conference program we have ever assembled and one of the finest networking opportunities for those involved in the steel industry. I want everyone to know that I am open to […]
I received a comment/question over the weekend regarding our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The comment came in the form of a LinkedIn comment to one of our posts regarding the most recent Sentiment Index announcement. The question was from a financial analyst who asked us why our Sentiment Index did not reflect the WARN […]
As part of your Premium level service, Steel Market Update (SMU) analyzes the service center shipment and inventory data and provides a short term forecast for carbon flat rolled steel shipments, inventories and how they will impact pricing over the next four months. This is done through a proprietary model and the results provided are […]
Steel Market Update conducted our mid-February flat rolled steel market trends analysis over the past four days. The SMU Steel Sentiment Indices are one of a group of proprietary products which are derived from this particular analysis which we conduct twice per month. When reviewing the data we found that our “Current” Sentiment Index dropped […]
Steel Market Update conducted our flat rolled steel market trends analysis this week, a portion of which is dedicated to understanding domestic mill lead times from a group perspective. These lead times shown in the graphic below have nothing to do with the mill lead time sheets produced by the domestic mills. The data shown […]
Hot rolled continues to be the weakest product according to those responding to this week’s flat rolled steel analysis. We found 82 percent of our respondents reporting the domestic mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled pricing. This is much higher than the 54 percent we reported two weeks ago and takes us back to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the seventh consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
I attended the Port of Tampa Steel Conference (their 27th) and it was one of the strongest programs I personally have seen the Port of Tampa produce over the past eight years or so. This being an election year, the Port provided an exceptional speaker to put the whole process of selecting a president in […]
Last week, the Senate passed the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 (TFTEA). The bill contains important provisions of the Enforcing Orders and Reducing Customs Evasion (ENFORCE) Act that have been promoted by the U.S. steel and manufacturing industries to combat evasion of antidumping and countervailing duties . Evasion is defined as failing […]
A reminder that our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop will be just outside of Toledo, Ohio and we will be touring a mill as one of the best run mini-mills in the country – North Star Bluescope Steel. You can find more details about our program, instructors, hotel and […]
I was very disappointed to hear the news that Carrier Corporation has decided to move their manufacturing and distribution operations in Indianapolis, Indiana to Monterrey, Mexico. As I heard the news I thought about the 2016 AHR Expo show (co-sponsored by ASHRAE and the AHRI) that I attended at the end of January. That show […]
The Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 passed by a margin of 75-20 in the Senate this morning. The customs bill has been advocated by the steel industry to strengthen measures to combat unfairly traded and subsidized imports. The bill now moves to the President for anticipated approval and signature. The American Iron […]
Over the past few weeks Steel Market Update has been reviewing the lead times being published and/or provided to their customers in order to see if there are any significant changes. As a general statement we have found cold rolled and coated steels (galvanized, Galvalume, galvannealed) have extended lead times and are the tightest of […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the sixth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Sources are telling SMU that the Nucor Decatur EAF’s will be offline for 10 days in early March as the mill replaces one of the furnaces. This is added on top of the idling of the Granite City (USS) and Ashland (AK Steel) hot ends plus the closure of the USS Fairfield hot end. Note […]
There seems to be little doubt that there is some strength in the cold rolled and coated products markets. The lead times are extended with ArcelorMittal being into May on galvanized according to one of their automotive service centers. We heard from a couple of the conversion mills who told us their orders books were […]
It’s Super Bowl Sunday so I will keep my final thoughts short and sweet. Congratulations to the Denver Broncos for winning the 50th Super Bowl (and giving hope to old football players everywhere). Now we get to concentrate on the next spectacle that we get to live through this year: the 2016 election (oh yea, […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel and the companies that use the products are becoming more optimistic about both the short term and medium term success for their companies. Earlier this week we began the process of collecting data regarding various trends involved with the flat rolled steel industry. One of the key proprietary […]
Many of you have read that hot rolled is the weakest product and that there is a significant spread between domestic hot rolled base prices and those of cold rolled and galvanized steel. Even with the energy markets being in the so-called “crapper” impacting the hot rolled order books, we are seeing stronger steel mill […]
As we mentioned in our previous article, flat rolled steel mill lead times have moved out by a week on hot rolled and as much as two weeks on cold rolled and galvanized. Galvalume lead times have remained decent but have not extended at this time but, that is to be expected for seasonal reasons. […]
After five years of negotiations, the twelve nations of the Trans Pacific Partnership signed the trade agreement in a ceremony in New Zealand on February 4. The signing was celebrated by the trade ministers but the agreement must still be officially approved by the individual nations. The countries have two years to ratify TPP through […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the fifth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
First, a note to our Premium level members (subscribers) we will produce another Premium supplemental issue of our newsletter for you tomorrow afternoon. The newsletter will contain the most recent CPIP (construction put in place) data. We also will release the results of this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis in the form of […]
One of the important keys to understanding the strength or weakness of the flat rolled market in the United States is to follow the steel mill lead time announcements made to their customers. We can then compare them against prior weeks (and the results of our market trends report which is conducted twice per month) […]
Correction: CME HRC settlement number for January was $389 per ton, not $398 per ton as we mistakenly identified in our monthly analysis table published in our Sunday evening edition. Unlike Platts and our own SMU hot rolled index, the index used by CME had hot rolled prices dropping by $7 per ton during one […]
Four U.S. steel producers announced earnings this past week. During their earnings conference calls held with analysts the steel mills addressed questions/concerns regarding foreign steel being exported to the United States. The domestic mills filed trade cases against corrosion resistant steels (such as galvanized and Galvalume) as well as cold rolled and hot rolled steels. […]
We spent some time combing through the latest foreign steel import trade data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce by product to see what impact, if any, the trade suits have been having on tonnages coming into the U.S. In the tables we have provided, we are showing the months of November (Final Census), […]
We will begin our early February flat rolled steel market analysis on Monday. If you receive an invitation to participate please take a few moments to click on the link and respond to our questionnaire. We will produce a few articles on the results of our queries on Thursday for our Executive level members. Our […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the fourth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]