Steel Market Update just conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market surveys. The data collected consisted of responses from service centers (46% of respondents), manufacturing companies (32%), steel mills (10%), trading companies (8%), suppliers to the steel industry (4%), and toll processors (2%). We intentionally weight the number toward distributors and manufacturing […]
Mills are struggling to fill July order books, and some might still have room in June – that’s the feedback we’re getting from market participants and in our survey. You can check the full details in Brett Linton’s writeup of our latest lead time figures. One consequence of slipping lead times: We’re hearing from more […]
The big news of the day is that hot-rolled coil prices slipped below $1,200 per ton ($60 per cwt) for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war. The big question remains how far they’ll fall and how fast. There are no immediate signs of what might stop the declines. The Detroit-area scrap […]
SMU updates its prices every Tuesday evening, and all indications are that prices could be in for a significant adjustment downward this week. This time last year, big orders at times had to pay a premium over small orders because the market was so tight and because prices were shooting up so fast. That’s no longer […]
Several of you, including some senior executives, have told me recently that I’m being too pessimistic about pricing. I’m not sure what to say about that. It gives me no joy to write about prices falling. No doubt it hurts those holding inventory to see it devalued. But me not writing about prices falling doesn’t […]
Sheet and plate prices continue to fall. That’s not a surprise, as there is little reason for them to do otherwise. What is surprising when you step back is just how quickly prices have fallen, and how much further they could continue to fall. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,255 per ton ($62.75 […]
Who wants to be in the hot-rolled coil business anymore? I ask that only partly in jest. It’s not that no one wants to make spot HRC anymore. It’s just that not many companies seem to want to make it their bread and butter. Nucor spending $3 billion for a garage door company and looking […]
Prices are down across the board this week. That’s not new if you’ve been paying attention lately. Price increases are often announced. Decreases rarely are. What’s new is Nucor’s almost aggressively transparent pricing strategy – announcing not only price increases but also flat and decreasing prices. That is new on the sheet and plate side […]
What a whirlwind last week was. I want to thank Wolfe Research and Bank of America for inviting me to speak, the former virtually, the latter in person. I also want to thank Stanislav Zinchenko and the GMK Center for taking time to join us for what I thought was one of our better Community […]
Alan Beaulieu Comments, Stanislav Kinchenko Webinar, Steel Prices, Events SMU’s Michael Cowden and David Schollaert are at the Boy Scout Dinner in Chicago this evening (Thursday). Steel Market Update is a supporter of the event which has been hosted by the metals industry for 50 years. If you have never attended the dinner, I highly […]
Being at a Crossroad. Where would you be if you had not stood at a crossroad, that point in your history when a decision you made dramatically impacted your future? We are at the end of the collegiate school year for most universities across the United States. Each of the students graduating has reached a […]
We’ve been writing a lot about fob mill prices falling. That’s not happening in a vacuum. Service center resale prices are coming down as well. That’s notable because service center resale prices, like mill lead times, are usually a reliable indicator of which way steel prices will go in the months ahead. What’s also notable […]
Steel prices have peaked and are trending downward – and fast, according to the latest SMU survey results and comments from market participants. The consensus: the war in Ukraine reset the steel market to roughly where it was on Jan. 1. And now the market is trending downward at least as fast as it was in January […]
Sheet prices fell hard this week after bouncing around between about $1,440-1,480 per ton ($72-74 per cwt) for much of April. Our average hot-rolled coil price dropped to $1,365 per ton this week, down $75 per ton (5.2%) from $1,440 per ton a week ago and down $115 per ton (7.8%) from $1,480 per ton […]
I hope the balance of the year turns out to be as good as steel mill and service center executives say it will be. I’ve covered a lot earnings reports and spent a lot of time on earnings calls over the last month. (It sometimes feels like the sun never sets on earnings season.) And […]
The US steel market continues to revert to where it was before the outbreak of war in Ukraine. SMU’s prices for sheet products are lower. Prices abroad are too. The latest bit of evidence: Published mill lead times. Case in point: Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) published updated lead times on Tuesday, May 3. They indicated […]
Sheet and plate prices were flat or down modestly again this week. And it has become clearer and clearer that the market has gotten over the initial shock of the war in Ukraine. Mill after mill lined up during earnings calls last month to say that they were no longer sourcing pig iron from Russia […]
The steel market has adapted to the shock of the war in Ukraine – and it’s become clearer with each passing week that a steeper price decline than we have seen to date might be in store. I wrote on Thursday that the headline data from our latest survey indicated the market had peaked. I […]
It’s cliché to compare steel price cycles to a roller coaster. But the description feels apt right now. People in the front can see a big drop coming. People in the back are still climbing. Why do I suggest we’re in for a drop? Our full survey results won’t be released until tomorrow. But we’ve […]
First, I want to commend Michael Cowden for the outstanding Final Thoughts he has been creating for our readers. I also want to thank the SMU team for doing an excellent job over the past few weeks since Tim Triplett retired. We have new people coming soon, but in the meantime Brett Linton and David […]
We’ve all grown used to worrying about global supply chains and their shortcomings – as underscored by the pandemic, the chip shortage and the war in Ukraine. But it’s important not to forget that foreign supply chains aren’t the only ones that can get tangled up. And exotic problems don’t mean that long-standing issues – […]
The SMU Steel Summit Conference was, at its inception, about two things: networking and forecasting. Our conference aims to expand our attendees’ knowledge of the economy, the flat rolled and plate industries, and key market segments. It’s also about getting to know one another better as companies look to improve or expand their relationships with […]
I’m writing this Final Thoughts from our first in-person Steel 101 workshop in more than two years. It’s great to see everyone here in Memphis, Tenn. It turns out everyone has legs and feet. We are not all disembodied heads on Zoom or Teams. It’s also great to see so many people at Steel 101. […]
I shouldn’t say put a fork in this market and call it done. It’s probably too early for that. But some of the anecdotal indicators I mentioned last week are increasingly showing up in the data we and others collect. Take a look at today’s issue: Lead times are still rising, for the most part. […]
Sheet and plate prices are flat or modestly down. I didn’t expect to write that this week. But the data we collected and our methodology indicated that it was the right decision. I’ve had a lot of experience with pricing over the years. And in my experience, that data often moves before the words. In […]
If you’re feeling whiplash from the current market, I’d take some comfort in the fact that you’re not alone. I remember attending Great Designs in Steel, one of my favorite events, in Livonia, Mich., back in May 2018. My absolute favorite part of GDIS is seeing the latest vehicle models dissected – and all the […]
My car was sideswiped recently – a parked car is hard to avoid, apparently – and I thought a silver lining might be that I could do my little part to keep North America’s scrap reservoir full. A quarter panel, maybe even a door. Instead, I am still driving around in that scrap (and probably […]
I gave the keynote address at The FABRICATOR’s Manufacturers & Suppliers Event in Schaumburg – just outside of Chicago – earlier today. And I want to thank the organizers who invited me, everyone who attended and especially those who asked questions. My presentation focused on the factors we’ve all been following closely over the last […]
We are now 140 days away, and I am getting very excited about this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. The agenda is coming together nicely, we have several new speakers, and I continue to work on a few special projects that I think you will enjoy. The conference dates are August 22-24, and the conference will be […]
I decided to take a break from prices and survey data today to check in with a few trusted mill and service center executives. Each had their own take on the market. But there were a couple of common threads. First, the war in Ukraine is still driving the steel and metals markets – even […]