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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Michael Cowden


    The steel market has adapted to the shock of the war in Ukraine – and it’s become clearer with each passing week that a steeper price decline than we have seen to date might be in store.

    I wrote on Thursday that the headline data from our latest survey indicated the market had peaked. I pointed to falling lead times, mills willing to negotiate lower prices (especially for hot-rolled coil), and wide spreads between US HRC prices and those abroad (especially in Asia).

    Michael Cowden

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    Latest in Analysis

    SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment rises slightly as Future Sentiment dips

    SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up slightly this week, while Future Sentiment fell, according to our latest market survey. Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.