Given all the conflict over Trump administration trade policies and the potential for a ruinous trade war, optimism among some corporate executives is wavering. But if negative outlooks on trade are affecting corporate investment and spending plans, it is not yet apparent in the data, say two experts. A dip in cap spending is widely […]
Tariff worries have caused optimism among metalforming companies to wane, says the latest survey of the Precision Metalforming Association. PMA members are expecting orders to decrease in the next three months and fewer expect an improvement in economic activity. “The data confirms that the optimism expressed by our members at the beginning of the year […]
The U.S. active rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs rose by 2 to 1,048, with oil rigs up 3 to 861 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 186 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 1 […]
Editor’s note: This article was contributed by Lisa Morrison, principal economist with the CRU Group. From the standpoint of trade policy and its economic effects, it has certainly been another busy month. President Trump is now threatening another round of tariffs on China. This time, it’s a levy of 10 percent on $200 billion in […]
Durable goods orders, orders for items expected to last three years or more, increased 1.0 percent in June to $251.9 billion, according to the latest data from Commerce. The increase follows two consecutive monthly decreases. Transportation equipment orders led the gain with civilian aircraft recouping some of its 11.6 percent loss in May by jumping […]
In both Q1 and Q2 2018, the South Central region pulled ahead of the Pacific in total job creation, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The BLS released second-quarter employment data by state on Friday. The state data follows the national figures that were published on July 6 […]
Steel prices held the top spot on the IHS Markit PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index for July. The survey of procurement executives showed construction costs have increased for 21 consecutive months, with July’s reading up 1.4 points from June to register 68.0. Prices for materials and equipment grew in eight of the 12 categories […]
Have China and other nations taken advantage of the United States on the trade front? Nearly three of four respondents to last week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire believe that is true and they support President Trump renegotiating the “bad trade deals” of the past. However, at the same time, only 20 percent of […]
Lead times, especially on hot rolled steel, have continued to gradually shorten over the past couple of months, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average just above five weeks, for cold rolled a bit less than seven and a half weeks, for galvanized a bit more […]
Negotiations between steel mills and buyers may have turned a corner as the mills appear significantly more willing to negotiate spot prices than at any other point this year. “We’re sensing that some of the steel mills have holes in their August order book for hot rolled coil,” one steel pipe executive told Steel Market […]
While manufacturers generally reported favorable business conditions all over the United States, companies in all the Federal Reserve Districts pointed to Trump administration tariffs as cause for concern, according to the Fed’s July 18 Beige Book report. Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting […]
Data from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire shows current industry sentiment stablizing after a bit of a swoon seen earlier this year due to the uncertainty related to the Section 232 tariffs and surprises regarding exclusions (or lack thereof). From a historical perspective, current sentiment remains at highly optimistic levels, however. SMU’s Steel […]
Oil prices have bounced around a bit lately, struggling to stay above the $70 per barrel mark. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) broke through $70 on May 7 for the first time since Nov. 27, 2014, and stayed above that level through May 24 this year. The price declined to $64.75 on June […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update have access to reports on SMU’s website that break out the import tonnage into district of entry and source nation for six sheet and plate categories. SMU has now developed reports that drill down to provide more product detail on hot rolled and cold rolled coil. We report these […]
Manufacturing activity remained fairly brisk in New York State, despite dropping 2.4 points in July to a general business index reading of 22.6. A reading above zero indicates growth, and July’s reading was better than expected by economists. The new orders index slipped 3.1 points to 18.2, while shipments fell 8.9 points to 14.6. Delivery […]
The U.S. dollar is continuing to surge. Through July 6, the strength of the dollar was up by 5.7 percent in three months and by 1.1 percent in the previous 30 days. (See the end of this report for an explanation of data sources.) The Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar is reported several […]
In the last months, 14 of the 16 currencies that Steel Market Update tracks were down against the dollar, led by Turkey down by 29.4 percent, and Russia and South Africa both down by 8.5 percent. The Chinese yuan has declined by 7.9 percent in the last three months. Please see the end of this […]
Growth of China’s economy has flattened, but steel production continues to surge. Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China […]
This Steel Market Update report examines the import share of sheet, plate, long and tubular products and 16 subcategories through May. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through May and in 12 months through May for the four product groups and the 16 subcategories. Supply to the market is the […]
Manufacturing companies have a different perspective on service center spot pricing than what the service centers themselves reported to Steel Market Update during the first week of July. We are about to survey steel buyers as we work on our mid-July flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis. Prior to the new survey, we […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict a recession, but keep a close eye on the yield curve. Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer […]
The U.S. rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to July 13 data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. drill rigs rose by 2 to 1,054 rigs, with oil rigs unchanged at 863 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 189 rigs, and miscellaneous […]
As the first state in the nation to require all new homes to have solar power, California’s recent decision mandating solar panels in residential construction is likely to increase demand for metal roofing systems, said the Metal Roofing Alliance (MRA), a non-profit trade organization. The initial cost of metal roofing is higher than conventional roofing […]
Steel shipments and inventories are increasing as the inventory-to-shipment ratio is decreasing, while new orders have exceeded shipments each month in 2018, indicating a healthy product turnover, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Census Bureau data. This is the third writeup of an analysis we began this year in which we investigate an […]
Steel Market Update has adjusted our SMU Price Momentum to Neutral from Higher on all products except plate, which remains at Higher for the moment. We chose to move at this time due to weakness we are seeing in the cold rolled and coated steel markets, with mild price erosion already evident in certain markets. […]
Add the United Steelworkers to the list of those opposed to President Trump’s nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court. President Trump announced Kavanaugh’s selection on Monday, commenting that “what matters most is not a judge’s political views, but whether they can set aside those views to […]
In the last 12 months, manufacturing employment has grown by 2.3 percent and construction employment by 4.1 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data for June—positive indicators of future steel sales volume. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing […]
The U.S. economy created 213,000 net jobs in June, bringing total job creation to 2,374,000, an increase of 1.6 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Rising employment and wages are the basis of most U.S. gross domestic product growth as personal consumption accounts […]
The data from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire shows mixed feelings when it comes to Current vs. Future Sentiment. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled and plate steels feel about their companies’ ability to be successful both now (Current) and three to six months into […]
Steel executives canvassed by Steel Market Update this week reported that demand remains strong, though they are less confident about conditions later in the year. Many expressed concern about the tariffs and trade issues unfolding in Washington, difficulty with trucking and logistics, and the impact of high steel prices on their customers. Following are some […]