With 58 percent of the service center data providers reporting, Steel Market Update is seeing inventories trending lower. Our “flash” report has inventories at 2.5 months of supply–down from 2.7 months of supply reported at the end of July. Of those reporting, 43 percent said their inventories are lower than the previous month. About 35 […]
Most steel buyers are keeping inventory levels steady or even lower believing that, with steel prices so high, the risk is to the downside for the rest of this year. As one steel executive commented: “We are running inventories lean based on the elevated cost and our opinion that there is a greater chance for […]
The U.S. economy created 157,000 net jobs in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 248,000 in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released on Friday. This decline was partly mitigated by revisions to May and June, which improved by 24,000 and 4,000, respectively. Conditions remain very positive in the U.S. […]
In June 2018, 12,751,000 people were employed in manufacturing and 7,242,000 in construction. Construction employment has grown by 4.4 percent in the last 12 months, while jobs in manufacturing have increased by 2.6 percent. In the last three months, however, manufacturing employment has gained almost twice the number of jobs as construction, according to Steel […]
Steel Market Update celebrates its 10-year anniversary this month. In August 2008, John Packard incorporated the Steel Market Update newsletter and began selling subscriptions to those interested in learning more about what was happening in the flat rolled steel industry. As a steel veteran with more than 30 years of sales experience, Packard believed he […]
Consumer confidence increased in July after a small dip in June, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) advanced in each of those months, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in July was 127.4, up from 127.1 in June. The 3MMA increased from 127.2 in June to 127.8 […]
There are no clouds on manufacturing’s horizon. Economic indicators of manufacturing activity are virtually all positive for the remainder of 2018, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of nine data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, […]
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent rate in the second quarter, up from 2.2 percent in the first quarter, according to the government’s first estimate of the gross domestic product. Growth of second-quarter GDP was the best since third-quarter 2014, and on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last eight quarters, […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business expanded for the 111th month in July. The PMI registered a solid 58.1, although decreasing 2.1 points from the June reading of 60.1 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally […]
The rate of expansion for global manufacturing slowed in July, according the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The index reached its lowest reading in a year at 52.7, down from 53.0 in June. “The manufacturing upturn has lost sizeable momentum since the start of the year. However, with final demand growth having firmed in recent […]
July saw rising steel prices leveling out, prompting Steel Market Update to move its Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. The price of hot rolled averaged around $910 and cold rolled around $1,000 a ton for the month. With prices for scrap seeing only modest changes from week to week, it’s difficult to predict what steel […]
The Chicago Business Barometer hit a six-month high in June, gaining 1.4 points to post at 65.5. New orders and production also reached six-month highs, increasing 8.0 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively. Increasing demand led to a third month of growth for order backlogs. The indicator posted a nine-month high with firms reporting unfinished work […]
China’s share of global steel production is setting a new high each month. Global steel production was down by 1.1 percent in June, but May’s production hit an all-time high and June was the second highest month ever, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In three months through […]
Given all the conflict over Trump administration trade policies and the potential for a ruinous trade war, optimism among some corporate executives is wavering. But if negative outlooks on trade are affecting corporate investment and spending plans, it is not yet apparent in the data, say two experts. A dip in cap spending is widely […]
Tariff worries have caused optimism among metalforming companies to wane, says the latest survey of the Precision Metalforming Association. PMA members are expecting orders to decrease in the next three months and fewer expect an improvement in economic activity. “The data confirms that the optimism expressed by our members at the beginning of the year […]
The U.S. active rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs rose by 2 to 1,048, with oil rigs up 3 to 861 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 186 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 1 […]
Editor’s note: This article was contributed by Lisa Morrison, principal economist with the CRU Group. From the standpoint of trade policy and its economic effects, it has certainly been another busy month. President Trump is now threatening another round of tariffs on China. This time, it’s a levy of 10 percent on $200 billion in […]
Durable goods orders, orders for items expected to last three years or more, increased 1.0 percent in June to $251.9 billion, according to the latest data from Commerce. The increase follows two consecutive monthly decreases. Transportation equipment orders led the gain with civilian aircraft recouping some of its 11.6 percent loss in May by jumping […]
In both Q1 and Q2 2018, the South Central region pulled ahead of the Pacific in total job creation, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The BLS released second-quarter employment data by state on Friday. The state data follows the national figures that were published on July 6 […]
Steel prices held the top spot on the IHS Markit PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index for July. The survey of procurement executives showed construction costs have increased for 21 consecutive months, with July’s reading up 1.4 points from June to register 68.0. Prices for materials and equipment grew in eight of the 12 categories […]
Have China and other nations taken advantage of the United States on the trade front? Nearly three of four respondents to last week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire believe that is true and they support President Trump renegotiating the “bad trade deals” of the past. However, at the same time, only 20 percent of […]
Lead times, especially on hot rolled steel, have continued to gradually shorten over the past couple of months, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for hot rolled now average just above five weeks, for cold rolled a bit less than seven and a half weeks, for galvanized a bit more […]
Negotiations between steel mills and buyers may have turned a corner as the mills appear significantly more willing to negotiate spot prices than at any other point this year. “We’re sensing that some of the steel mills have holes in their August order book for hot rolled coil,” one steel pipe executive told Steel Market […]
While manufacturers generally reported favorable business conditions all over the United States, companies in all the Federal Reserve Districts pointed to Trump administration tariffs as cause for concern, according to the Fed’s July 18 Beige Book report. Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting […]
Data from Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire shows current industry sentiment stablizing after a bit of a swoon seen earlier this year due to the uncertainty related to the Section 232 tariffs and surprises regarding exclusions (or lack thereof). From a historical perspective, current sentiment remains at highly optimistic levels, however. SMU’s Steel […]
Oil prices have bounced around a bit lately, struggling to stay above the $70 per barrel mark. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) broke through $70 on May 7 for the first time since Nov. 27, 2014, and stayed above that level through May 24 this year. The price declined to $64.75 on June […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update have access to reports on SMU’s website that break out the import tonnage into district of entry and source nation for six sheet and plate categories. SMU has now developed reports that drill down to provide more product detail on hot rolled and cold rolled coil. We report these […]
Manufacturing activity remained fairly brisk in New York State, despite dropping 2.4 points in July to a general business index reading of 22.6. A reading above zero indicates growth, and July’s reading was better than expected by economists. The new orders index slipped 3.1 points to 18.2, while shipments fell 8.9 points to 14.6. Delivery […]
The U.S. dollar is continuing to surge. Through July 6, the strength of the dollar was up by 5.7 percent in three months and by 1.1 percent in the previous 30 days. (See the end of this report for an explanation of data sources.) The Broad Index value of the U.S. dollar is reported several […]
In the last months, 14 of the 16 currencies that Steel Market Update tracks were down against the dollar, led by Turkey down by 29.4 percent, and Russia and South Africa both down by 8.5 percent. The Chinese yuan has declined by 7.9 percent in the last three months. Please see the end of this […]