Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.
All of SMU’s sheet and plate steel price indices declined this week, easing by $30-40 per short ton (st) on average since early May. Prices continue to slide lower as buyers remain on the sidelines, wary of holding much excess inventory and expecting further declines.
The recently announced US tariffs on vehicles and key components from all markets are expected to significantly disrupt global production.
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.
We need to address our structural problem with the pricing of solid waste and why we struggle with recycling.
SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics earlier this week, including market prices and demand, tariffs and reshoring, inventories and imports, and evolving market trends.
Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.
Baosteel exec comments on market rumors of 50 million tons of output being cut this year, less than 0.5% of the 1 billion tons-plus China has produced annually in recent years.
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through April 30.
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.
“The lack of effective measures to create fair competition, amid a surge in subsidized imports, is the main threat to the sustainability of Brazil’s steel industry and its value chain,” CEO Marcelo Chara said.
Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.
Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.
The Chicago Business Barometer declined in April, reversing March’s gains, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
PMA’s April report shows that only 16% of surveyed manufacturers anticipate an increase in economic activity in the next three months (down from 23% in March)
Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again this week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower.
Chinese export prices for longs were almost steady this week, while those for flats generally declined as producers cut prices to secure deals.
Chinese steel export prices are expected to remain stable or fall in the coming weeks as trade restrictions rise and tensions between the country and the US escalate.
Architecture firms said billings continued to decline in March, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.
Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of districts said activity was little changed or had declined.
Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.
SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were flat or lower as tariff-related uncertainty continued to drag on the market.
US domestic sheet price gains have begun to slow as previously pulled-forward demand has led to a decline in orders.
Meanwhile, an increasing number think it's too early to say whether the penalties are going to bring more manufacturing to the US.
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.
Iron ore prices were largely steady in March, hovering around $100–102 per dry metric ton (dmt) in a quiet market.
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.