In most regions in Q2 2020, gross domestic product, as reported by the states, declined by more than the nationally reported number. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports GDP by state and region on a quarterly basis. This data is released several weeks after the national report, but the BEA has committed to getting […]
The Chicago Business Barometer marked its fourth consecutive month of expansion with a PMI of 61.1 in October. The headline index eased slightly from last month’s reading of 62.4 with only new orders advancing during October, gaining just 0.2 points. The production index fell 5.9 points and backlogs eased to a two-month low. The inventories […]
Lead times for spot orders of steel continue to extend with hot rolled delivery now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around eight and a half weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are less likely […]
Signaling that the mills remain busy, lead times for delivery of spot orders continue to lengthen with hot rolled now averaging more than six and a half weeks and coated steel orders around nine weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills have more orders to process and are […]
Mills continue to control negotiations over hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel orders as they seek to collect higher prices in a market characterized by extended lead times and tight supplies. About 86 percent of the hot rolled steel buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week said the mills are […]
Mills continue to hold the upper hand in negotiations over hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel orders as they work to collect higher prices in a tight market with extended lead times. Buyers report the mills will only negotiate on big tonnages to be delivered in 2021. About 86 percent of the steel buyers […]
GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020 was the highest ever recorded at negative 31.4 percent. Growth in the third quarter was also the highest ever at positive 33.1 percent. GDP in Q3 was 2.9 percent below the first quarter result. On Oct. 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In this Global Economic Outlook, we reflect on some of the most important risks to the forecast we discussed with clients during LME week. Three issues were foremost: risks to the recovery from the second Covid-19 wave, policy stimulus […]
The final outcome of next week’s presidential election may well boil down to the difference in turnout–in just a handful of counties in three pivotal swing states–among two key demographics: non-college-educated working class males for Trump vs. college-educated suburban women for Biden, predicts Dr. David Schultz, political analyst and professor of political science and legal […]
Orders for durable goods increased for the fifth straight month, up 1.9 percent to $237.1 billion and surpassing expectations. Transportation orders led the increase with a 4.1 percent gain. Automotive orders rose 1.5 percent in September on continued strong sales for SUV’s and light trucks. The commercial airline industry, showing losses through the pandemic, had […]
The number of active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs increased yet again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs increased by […]
Steel associations from around the globe called on steel-producing economies to intensify their work in the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity. Recent increases in steel overcapacity have reversed a three-year declining trend and are of “tremendous concern” during a pandemic where steel demand is severely depressed. The associations urge participating countries in the Global […]
Economic activity grew at a slight to modest pace in early October with inconsistency among sectors, says the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity growth was moderate and the sector added jobs across the country. Demand for new and existing homes kept residential construction robust, but interest in commercial real estate leasing deteriorated. Construction […]
ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and decarbonization are big concerns for corporate investors in the metals and mining sector, according to a recent survey by CRU. How prepared are global corporations to take on the changes needed to reach zero emissions? China is a leader in decarbonization, announcing in September a target of net zero emissions […]
With early voting underway, record breaking mail-in ballots, and a final voting date a mere 14 days away, it is safe to say that much is riding on the upcoming U.S. presidential election. With two candidates who share little common ground in a bitter election battle, it’s clear that a shift in presidential administration will […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Steel Monitor It now seems clear that Joe Biden will become U.S. president in January. However, it is likely that the Republicans will maintain their Senate majority. This will significantly limit Biden’s ability to implement his economic policy agenda. In this insight, we […]
Given all the contentious election rhetoric and concerns over the spread of COVID, industry sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, remains surprisingly upbeat. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index saw a 12-point jump since the beginning of October, reaching its highest reading since May 2018. Every two weeks, SMU asks steel buyers how they view their […]
About 72 percent of the service center and OEM executives polled by Steel Market Update this week said they expect the economy in 2021 to be better than 2020. The other 28 percent was evenly split between those who expect more of the same and those who see next year being even worse. No surprise, […]
Lead times for hot rolled steel now average longer than six weeks, and coated steel orders longer than eight weeks, as the mills remain busy in a market adjusting to business in a pandemic. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times indicate the mills have more orders to process and are less […]
By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The dollar has been extremely volatile over the past two quarters. Underlying this is macroeconomic uncertainty linked to the coronavirus pandemic. We expect such uncertainty and volatility to continue into Q4, but trade-weighted dollar and dollar-euro to be range bound around a stable trend. […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) was unchanged m/m in October at 225.6 following large price increases the prior month. Supply in many markets became more available as prices rose, and this helped prevent additional upside pressure. For November, market sentiment is that prices […]
By CRU Analysts Ben Carstein and Lize Wan On Oct. 9, it was reported that Chinese state-owned power plants and steel mills had received verbal notice from China’s customs to stop importing Australian metallurgical and thermal coal with immediate effect. In this article, we review the announcement and its potential implications. Has the Announcement Been […]
Flat Rolled = 45 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 51.3 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service center flat roll inventories fell significantly month on month as shipments increased and mill lead times extended. The SMU service center inventories data for September shows that service centers carried 45 shipping days of supply of flat […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 10 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our September update. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of the […]
The U.S. dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last 30 days and against 12 in the last 90 days, which is similar to the declines we reported in our last two updates. The biggest changes in the last 90 days were in the value of […]
Manufacturing activity continued to expand in New York during October, but at a slower pace. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index slipped seven points to 10.5, decreasing more than expected by analysts. New orders and shipments continued to expand and unfilled orders declined. Inventories were a little leaner and delivery times remained steady. […]
The 2020 pandemic has caused more disruption to the global energy sector than any other event in recent history, says the International Energy Agency in its newest World Energy Outlook. “Whether this upheaval ultimately helps or hinders efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and reach international energy and climate goals will depend on how governments […]
By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service 2020 has seen an unusual recession that was brought on by a pandemic. To match this, the shape of the recovery is likely to be equally unusual. The U.S. recovery is starting to lose momentum, with more slowing to come in 2021. Large uncertainties lie […]
The number of active U.S and Canadian gas and oil rigs increased again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs increased by 3 […]
Nearly three out of four (72 percent) of the service center and OEM executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire last week said they feel upbeat about their company’s prospects in the fourth quarter. Yet SMU received twice as many negative comments as positive ones. Clearly, even the optimists are concerned about COVID and the […]