The Chicago Business Barometer rose 3.1 points to 46.3 in November, but remained in contraction for the third consecutive month. All but one component of the general index remained below the neutral 50.0 mark. New orders rose 12.5 points to 49.9, indicating an improvement in demand. Production slipped to 42.3. Order backlogs rebounded from October’s […]
Durable goods orders rose 0.6 percent in October, beating economists’ expectations of a 1 percent or more decline. Most of the increase was due to orders for military equipment including an 18 percent increase for military aircraft. A bright spot for the metals industry in October was a 1.8 percent increase in fabricated metal product […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data SMU has reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
The Conference Board’s September-November reports on consumer confidence show an increased weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in November was 125.5 with a […]
U.S. gross domestic product had positive growth in every region of the country in each of the first two quarters of 2019, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA reports GDP by state and region on a quarterly basis. This data is released several weeks after the national report. The latest data was […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our mid-November flat rolled and plate steel market analysis. We invited 480 individuals involved in manufacturing, service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors to participate in our questionnaire. On purpose, the survey is heavily weighted to manufacturing companies and service centers since they purchase the vast majority […]
Steel buyers’ sentiment has been trending up for the last six weeks along with steel prices, which is a positive development. But like the prices, sentiment has yet to really take off and prove it has sustained strength, according to Steel Market Update’s latest Steel Buyer’s Sentiment Index. The goal of the index is to […]
Metalforming companies reported continued weakness in the market in the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association. The PMA November 2019 Business Conditions Report showed 34 percent of participants expect a decline in economic activity and 51 percent expect no change. “The November PMA Business Conditions Report showed little change from the previous month. Metalforming […]
Billings increased for architectural design services in October after two months of decline, reported the American Institute of Architects. The Architecture Billings Index rose to 52.0 from 49.7 in September. New project inquiries and design contract scores were somewhat lower but both positive at scores of 57.9 and 52.9, respectively. “Although ongoing uncertainty over the […]
Pricing from the mills is considerably tighter than it was a month ago, when virtually every deal was open to negotiation. Yet Steel Market Update data indicates the flat rolled mills are still surprisingly flexible when it comes to spot prices even as they work to collect two $40 price increases announced in the past […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have lengthened by roughly a week following the mills’ price increase announcements over the past month. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Thus, this data indicates the mills have gotten busier as buyers step up to place […]
Steel Market Update is please to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Manufacturing output shows contraction in nine of the 10 indicators analyzed by Steel Market Update, which helps to explain the current weakness in steel demand in some sectors. This report […]
The Association of Steel Distributors has named Bill Hickey, chairman of Lapham-Hickey Steel Corp. in Chicago, as its 2019 Steel Executive of the Year. Hickey served as president of the family-owned service center for 40 years, growing the company to 10 locations and 700 employees before stepping back from day-to-day management. Son Brian now serves […]
Manufacturing activity in New York State changed very little from October to November. The general business conditions component of the Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a 2.9 for November, indicating sluggish manufacturing growth for the sixth consecutive month. The shipments index fell four points to 8.8 and new orders increased slightly to 5.5, still above […]
Manufacturers still face slowing business conditions for 2020, according to the Deloitte 2020 Manufacturing Industry Outlook. Deloitte projects that annual manufacturing GDP growth will end 2019 at 2.7 percent and at 1.3 percent for 2020, down from prior projections of 3.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively. Job growth was muted in 2019 with the manufacturing sector […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 11 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S, […]
Crude oil prices have been stable since mid-June, but the rig count continues to decline. The total number of operating rigs exploring for oil has declined by 211 or 23.8 percent since the end of last year. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., has been very consistent since mid-June ranging from […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled; then it breaks out four thickness ranges and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through September 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and […]
The third quarter of 2019 saw a disappointing decrease in labor productivity. The labor productivity of nonfarm businesses decreased by 0.3 percent in the quarter. Unit labor costs increased 3.1 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are […]
Change and growth, both personal and professional, were the dominant topics at the 2019 Annual Conference of the Association of Women in the Metal Industries, held in San Antonio Nov. 6-9. Beginning with a workshop by Asbury Group CEO Kailei Carr—”Unveil Your Most Powerful Self”—and ending with Anne Phelon, CEO at Merrett Davies International—”Moving from […]
The U.S and Canada active rig count declined again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 11 to 806, with oil […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of October: Flat Rolled = 53 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 57 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Sheet steel prices declined rapidly throughout October, and the SMU Service Center Inventories Report shows that service centers pared down inventories […]
The composite producer price index of all commodities peaked in October last year and in 12 months through September has declined by 3.2 percent. This Steel Market Update report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of sheet steel, aluminum, […]
Demand for steel sheet products declined by more than the seasonal norm in September. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 […]
Flat rolled steel prices are on the way up following two recent rounds of price increases. Steel Market Update has been anticipating the turnaround in prices as the market has been near the point of “capitulation” for several weeks. Capitulation is the point when 75 percent or more of our service center survey respondents are […]
Although too early to be called a trend, the latest readings in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyer’s Sentiment Index show a slight uptick in optimism following recent price increase announcements by the mills. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful […]
Not surprisingly following the mills’ $40 price increase announcements Oct. 24-25, negotiations between steelmakers and steel buyers have tightened somewhat. What is surprising is that roughly two out of three buyers still report mills actively negotiating spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized, as well as plate. In the hot rolled segment, 62 […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled showed early signs of lengthening in the first week of November following the $40 per ton price increase announcements Oct. 24-25. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Thus, this data suggests the mills are getting busier as buyers […]
Needle coke and graphite electrode availability has been under pressure since 2017 following substantial financially and environmentally driven capacity closures, particularly in China. With prices under pressure in 2019, and margins rapidly falling, the graphite electrode and needle coke markets appear to be at a crossroads with many questions about the future for these markets. […]
The Dodge Momentum Index increased 6.9 percent in October to 152.6 from a revised September reading of 142.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full […]