The Association of Steel Distributors has named Bill Hickey, chairman of Lapham-Hickey Steel Corp. in Chicago, as its 2019 Steel Executive of the Year. Hickey served as president of the family-owned service center for 40 years, growing the company to 10 locations and 700 employees before stepping back from day-to-day management. Son Brian now serves […]
Manufacturing activity in New York State changed very little from October to November. The general business conditions component of the Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a 2.9 for November, indicating sluggish manufacturing growth for the sixth consecutive month. The shipments index fell four points to 8.8 and new orders increased slightly to 5.5, still above […]
Manufacturers still face slowing business conditions for 2020, according to the Deloitte 2020 Manufacturing Industry Outlook. Deloitte projects that annual manufacturing GDP growth will end 2019 at 2.7 percent and at 1.3 percent for 2020, down from prior projections of 3.7 and 2.0 percent, respectively. Job growth was muted in 2019 with the manufacturing sector […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 11 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S, […]
Crude oil prices have been stable since mid-June, but the rig count continues to decline. The total number of operating rigs exploring for oil has declined by 211 or 23.8 percent since the end of last year. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) FOB Cushing, Okla., has been very consistent since mid-June ranging from […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled; then it breaks out four thickness ranges and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through September 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and […]
The third quarter of 2019 saw a disappointing decrease in labor productivity. The labor productivity of nonfarm businesses decreased by 0.3 percent in the quarter. Unit labor costs increased 3.1 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are […]
Change and growth, both personal and professional, were the dominant topics at the 2019 Annual Conference of the Association of Women in the Metal Industries, held in San Antonio Nov. 6-9. Beginning with a workshop by Asbury Group CEO Kailei Carr—”Unveil Your Most Powerful Self”—and ending with Anne Phelon, CEO at Merrett Davies International—”Moving from […]
The U.S and Canada active rig count declined again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 11 to 806, with oil […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of October: Flat Rolled = 53 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 57 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Sheet steel prices declined rapidly throughout October, and the SMU Service Center Inventories Report shows that service centers pared down inventories […]
The composite producer price index of all commodities peaked in October last year and in 12 months through September has declined by 3.2 percent. This Steel Market Update report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of sheet steel, aluminum, […]
Demand for steel sheet products declined by more than the seasonal norm in September. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 […]
Flat rolled steel prices are on the way up following two recent rounds of price increases. Steel Market Update has been anticipating the turnaround in prices as the market has been near the point of “capitulation” for several weeks. Capitulation is the point when 75 percent or more of our service center survey respondents are […]
Although too early to be called a trend, the latest readings in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyer’s Sentiment Index show a slight uptick in optimism following recent price increase announcements by the mills. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful […]
Not surprisingly following the mills’ $40 price increase announcements Oct. 24-25, negotiations between steelmakers and steel buyers have tightened somewhat. What is surprising is that roughly two out of three buyers still report mills actively negotiating spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized, as well as plate. In the hot rolled segment, 62 […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled showed early signs of lengthening in the first week of November following the $40 per ton price increase announcements Oct. 24-25. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Thus, this data suggests the mills are getting busier as buyers […]
Needle coke and graphite electrode availability has been under pressure since 2017 following substantial financially and environmentally driven capacity closures, particularly in China. With prices under pressure in 2019, and margins rapidly falling, the graphite electrode and needle coke markets appear to be at a crossroads with many questions about the future for these markets. […]
The Dodge Momentum Index increased 6.9 percent in October to 152.6 from a revised September reading of 142.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full […]
The global manufacturing downturn showed some signs of easing in October. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted 49.8, still in contraction but rising for the third consecutive month. The intermediate goods sector fell to a three-month low of 48.8, but PMIs for consumer and investor goods saw expansion in October. The Eurozone remained in contraction […]
The rate of job creation in October slowed, partly due to the GM strike. Net job creation in October declined to 128,000 from an upwardly revised 180,000 in September. August was revised up by 51,000 and September up by 44,000. In combination, this was the highest upwards two-month revision that we can remember. Rising employment […]
Jobs have been lost in the primary metals sector in each of the last seven months. In October, 10,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 36,000 jobs. A reported 131,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government lost 3,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing […]
Steel prices continued their decline in October to an average hot rolled price below $500 per ton, prompting a $40 per ton price increase announcement by the flat rolled mills late in the month. With a price change in play, Steel Market Update switched its Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. Widespread concerns about the declining […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison On Oct. 30, the Fed cut rates by 25bp as was widely anticipated (including by us), lowering the Federal Funds rate to a range of 1.50 percent-1.75 percent. Based on the Fed statement and comments during Chair Powell’s press conference, the Fed seems pleased with where monetary policy is, […]
The U.S and Canada active rig count declined again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 8 to 822, with oil […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in October with a reading of 48.3, the third month of contraction, indicating continued softening in the manufacturing sector. The October reading was an increase of 0.5 percentage points from September. Nine of the ten components of the index registered below the neutral point of […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
China’s steel production continues to grow as the rest of the world contracts. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January 2000. The OECD has taken over responsibility for tracking global steel capacity. Their data shows that global capacity declined each year 2016 […]
Manufacturing in the Midwest was weaker in August as slowing global trade continued to impact the region. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 43.2 in October from 47.1 in September, further sinking into contraction and posting its lowest reading since December 2015. The three-month average fell to 46.9. New orders were at their lowest level […]
The international debate over the world’s oversupply of steel will go on, but without China’s participation in the G20’s Global Forum on Excess Steel Capacity. Ministers meeting in Tokyo over the weekend declined to extend the mandate for the forum, which is scheduled to lapse in December, primarily due to opposition from China. Other nations […]
Steel Market Update’s Current and Future Buyers Sentiment Indexes inched up a few points this week, but remain near their lowest levels in six years. The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Sentiment Index), as well […]