Steel buyers appear to have considerably more leverage in mill negotiations than at any other point this year. Twice per month, in a proprietary poll, Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. Most buyers report that mills are willing to negotiate spot prices today. According […]
Editor’s note: Normally a Premium offering, we are sharing this article with our Executive members. For more information about Premium-level membership, click here. Steel mill shipments are up while the shipment-to-inventory ratio is down, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Census Bureau data. This is an alternative data source for steel product shipments […]
Global steel production in July hit an annual rate of 1.855 billion metric tons. Capacity is calculated to be 2.38 billion metric tons; therefore, capacity utilization was 78 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In three months through July, Chinese production grew by 10.5 percent year over […]
Global steel production in August achieved an annual rate of 1.821 billion metric tons. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion metric tons; therefore, capacity utilization was 76 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In three months through August, China’s steel production grew by 9.0 percent year […]
Consumer confidence increased strongly in August and the three-month moving average (3MMA) had the largest monthly increase since October last year, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 133.4, up from 127.9 in July. The 3MMA increased from 127.9 in July to 129.5 in August, […]
Consumer confidence surged again in September to its highest level since September 2000, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in September was 138.4, up from 134.7 in August. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 129.9 in August to 133.6 in September, which was 13.3 points higher […]
Economic indicators of manufacturing activity continue to look favorable for the rest of 2018. This report summarizes nine data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect […]
August saw our SMU Price Momentum Indicator move from Neutral to Lower indicating our expectation that we will see prices drop over the next 30-60 days. The last couple of weeks of August and into early September has seen prices dropping and the trend does not appear ready to abate quite yet. Our Sentiment Index […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index reached a 14 year high as new orders, production and employment made strong gains in August. The Index issued by the Institute for Supply Management, jumped 3.2 points to a reading of 61.3, far exceeding the consensus for a posting of 57.6. New orders increased 4.9 points to 65.1, production 4.8 […]
Global manufacturing was subdued in August said J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was at a 21 month low of 52.5 in August, down 0.3 points from July. “August PMI data signaled a slight firming in global manufacturing output growth to a solid pace at near three percent annualized,” said […]
The August Chicago Business Barometer recorded its first decrease in five months for a three-month low of 63.6 in August. The index was down 1.9 points from July’s reading of 65.5, according to MNI Indicators and the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago. Output and orders inched up slightly last month giving some firms breathing room to […]
The U.S. active rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, increased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs rose by 4 to 1,048, with oil rigs up 2 to 862 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 184 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2 […]
U.S. gross domestic product grew in every region of the country in the last quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data […]
Sixty-two percent of those responding to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire believe steel prices on the spot market are on the decline. Another 35 percent expect prices to remain the same. Only 3 percent feel steel prices could still move higher. SMU has adjusted its Price Momentum Indicator to Lower, meaning prices are […]
The steel market is watching and waiting to see if President Trump will hit other countries with higher tariffs as he did with Turkey. If he does, the majority of observers will not be surprised. Indeed, more than 60 percent of the steel executives responding to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire expect further […]
Durable goods orders fell more than expected in July, dipping 1.7 percent, according to data from the Commerce Department. The decrease was primarily due to a 34 percent plunge in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.2 percent. Core capital goods, orders minus defense and aircraft, gained 1.4 percent last month […]
Both Current and Future Sentiment, measured as three-month moving averages (3MMAs) to smooth out the data, are below levels of this time last year, possibly reflecting concerns among steel buyers about the volatile trade situation in the U.S. Data from Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index remains at optimistic levels, however, by historical standards. […]
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been erratic in the last four months with two brief spikes above $70 per barrel. The oil price was $66.50 on Aug. 20. The total number of operating rigs exploring for oil and gas was up by 11.7 percent year over year and increased by nine […]
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time the busier the mill. Lead times on hot rolled and cold rolled steel products have remained flat over the past couple of weeks, while coated products saw some shortening of delivery times, according to Steel Market Update’s […]
Mills appear more willing to negotiate spot prices on most flat rolled steel products than at any other point this year. Twice per month, in a proprietary poll, Steel Market Update tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. According to respondents to this week’s market trends questionnaire, 71 […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2018, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July totaled 89,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 8.1 percent from the previous month, and an increase of 4.3 percent from […]
Metalforming companies are struggling with higher steel prices and longer lead times as a result of Section 232 tariffs, but are still expecting business conditions to improve during the next three months. The Precision Metalforming Association’s August Business Conditions Report showed 29 percent of participants expect an increase in economic activity, 62 percent expect no […]
Architecture billings growth slowed in July, according to the American Institute of Architects. The AIA Architecture Billings Index slipped to 50.7 from 51.3 in June. A score over 50 indicates billing growth, but on a regional basis only the South registered growing demand with an index reading of 55.2. Regional averages in the remainder of […]
Editor’s note: The following was contributed by Analyst Ryan Cochrane of the CRU Group. Global concentrate inventories first reached critical levels in 2017 Q1, leading to Chinese smelter utilization rates falling below 90 percent and remaining at depressed levels since. Without much buffer concentrate stock remaining, the relationship between mine supply and Chinese smelter output […]
Editor’s note: The following was contributed by analysts at the CRU Group. The Turkish-U.S. political relationship has soured sharply in the past week. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted relations were “not so good” on Friday, Aug. 10, and doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of Turkish steel. Turkish President Erdogan responded with anger, suggesting the country […]
Productivity growth was strong in the second quarter and unit labor costs increased 1.9 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are reported quarterly by the BLS and results for Q2 2018 were released this week. This basic […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update receive reports on imports broken down into district of entry and source nation. This new report from SMU takes the analysis to the product detail level. Our rationale is that the more information steel buyers have about the fine detail of what is coming into their region, the better […]
A couple of months ago, Steel Market Update was speaking in front of a group from the financial community. We were asked, “What do you look for as a sign when prices are about to change direction?” Our answer was a mill price increase announcement. Earlier this week, ArcelorMittal USA announced a $30 per ton […]
Manufacturers in New York State reported growing business activity in August, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says the general business index of the survey climbed three points to 25.6 as new orders and shipments remained strong. The new orders index slipped about a point to […]
Flat rolled and plate steel distributors, as well as the manufacturers who purchase spot material from the distributors and wholesalers, are reporting a softening of spot pricing. That is the spot pricing service centers are offering their manufacturing customers. Last week, Steel Market Update conducted our early August flat rolled and plate steel market analysis. […]