Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 116 (April) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and four months from becoming the longest ever. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 118 (June) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and two […]
The majority of respondents to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week reported mills willing to talk price in every product category, even plate, which may say something about the current state of steel demand. About 76 percent of respondents said the mills are open to price negotiations on hot rolled, up 20 points from the […]
Lead times for spot orders of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steels are now about a week longer than they were in January, but have seen only small upticks in the past month. Lead times for plate and Galvalume have actually shortened slightly. Hot rolled lead times now average a bit more than four […]
Editor’s note: Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence, a highly regarded economist and popular speaker, will once again make an appearance at Steel Market Update’s annual Steel Summit, scheduled for Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta. Click here for more information about the conference or to register. Below are excerpts of his recent comments on the likelihood […]
Rising trade tensions took a toll on global economic growth in 2018 and will create strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020, says a new report by the World Trade Organization. Global trade grew 4.6 percent in 2017 generating optimism that an upward momentum was beginning. Data from 2018, however, showed trade underperforming, with growth of […]
Selling the family business “is not just a personal choice, but what’s best for the company,” said Roy Berlin of Berlin Metals one year after selling his Hammond, Ind., service center operation to Olympic Steel. Speaking with Steel Market Update on his first day of retirement, “the first day of the rest of my life,” […]
Durable goods orders fell 1.6 percent in February, according to the latest Department of Commerce report. Core capital goods orders, which exclude defense and aircraft and are considered a measure of business investment, slipped 0.1 percent after a revised increase of 0.9 percent in January. Orders and shipments for primary metals and fabricated metal products […]
Global manufacturing had another weak month in March. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from February at 50.6. with components of the index either flat or seeing only slight changes. Output and new export orders inched downward. Prices were relatively stable in March with no change on the input prices index and output […]
The March ISM manufacturing PMI bounced back from a two-year low recorded in February. The Index rose to 55.3 from 54.2 supported by gains in new orders and employment, said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute of Supply Management business survey committee. Indexes for new orders and production rose 1.9 and 1.0 percentage points to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Data released for Q1 2019 have been largely positive. The ISM Manufacturing survey reflects a moderating rate of expansion, but the reading of 54.2 in February shows a solid level of manufacturing activity with new orders, output, employment and backlogs squarely in “expansion” territory. Housing disappointed in 2018, but […]
Looking back at the key indicators for the month of March, steel prices saw a modest increase following mill price increase announcements in January and February. The benchmark price for hot rolled averaged $698 per ton, according to SMU data, up $16 from February, but flat with the price in January. Prices for cold rolled […]
April saw steel prices lose momentum as hot rolled dipped to an average of $662, cold rolled to $803 and galvanized G90 to less than $900 per ton. Even plate, which has been in tight supply, has now moderated to around $964 per ton from prices near or above $1,000 earlier in the year. Steel […]
The latest survey of metalforming companies by the Precision Metalforming Association revealed uncertainty about business activity during the next three months. A survey of 110 firms, in the March 2019 PMA Business Conditions Report, showed 37 percent expect improving business conditions during the period, 49 percent anticipate no change, and 14 percent expect business activity […]
A pullback in production and orders caused the Chicago Business Barometer to fall six points in March to a reading of 64.7. The barometer averaged 60.0 in the first quarter of 2019, a 3.5 percent drop from Q4 2018 and a decline of 3.3 percent compared to Q1 2018. “Although the barometer has comfortably remained above […]
Many e-commerce ventures have targeted the metals industry over the years with varying degrees of success, but one of the latest on the scene has ambitious plans to reinvent industrial business—thus its name, Reibus. Founded 10 months ago with offices in Atlanta, Reibus.com is an online business-to-business marketplace that allows buyers and sellers of steel, […]
Join us for CRU’s New York Steel Briefing on Monday, June 17, to hear our market outlook for steel, along with presentations and a panel discussion. The event is free to attend. Presentations will begin at 3:00 p.m. at the Westin New York at Times Square – 811 7th Avenue 53rd Street, New York, NY 10019 […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Growth of U.S. GDP in fourth-quarter 2018 declined to 2.2 percent from 3.4 percent in the third quarter, according to the third and final […]
One of the primary drivers of currency change is interest rate differential between currency pairs. The March 20 announcement by the Federal Reserve will take some of the steam out of dollar appreciation that occurred last year. On March 21, the Associated Press wrote, “The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged March 20 […]
Producer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows steel losing ground to rival materials. Steel continues to become less competitive against aluminum, although the rate of change is slowing. In the case of plastic pipe compared to carbon steel pipe, steel is becoming dangerously uncompetitive. Prefabricated metal buildings are still challenged by […]
Global steel production in February reached an annual rate of 1.647 billion metric tons (Mt). Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion Mt and capacity utilization in February was 73.0 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. In three months through February, Chinese production grew by 8.8 percent […]
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate FOB Cushing, Okla., had a recent peak on Oct. 3 of $76.40/barrel. The price declined to $44.48 on Dec. 27, but recovered to $59.09 on March 15. The total number of operating rigs exploring for oil has declined by 61 since Jan. 4. The prices of oil and […]
After declining for three straight months, The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence surged in February, only to give back most of that gain in March. The composite value of consumer confidence in March was 124.1, down from 131.4 in February. The 3MMA (three-month moving average) decreased from 126.6 in February to 125.7 in March, […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers in this issue. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com In April, consumer confidence gained back most of the March decline. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined each month from November through January, surged in February, gave back […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen The 13th National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s Parliament, concluded its annual two-week meeting in March. The NPC is arguably the most important policy meeting in China because it is when key macroeconomic targets are announced together with the policies required to support them. This year’s NPC has drawn attention […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has registered little change so far this year, even as steel prices have seen a small uptrend. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), as well as three to six […]
The U.S. active rotary rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, decreased this week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 10 to 1,016, with oil rigs down 9 and gas rigs down 1. Compared to this time last year, the 1,016 count is […]
Mills are still willing to negotiate on price, especially on hot rolled, even as they work to collect the two $40 per ton price increases they announced in January and February. In every product category except plate, the majority of respondents to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week reported mills willing to talk price. Most […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel saw little additional change in the past two weeks after moving out by a few days following the mill price increase announcements in January and February. Hot rolled lead times now average a bit more than four weeks, cold rolled more than six weeks, plate six […]
In many Chicago-area neighborhoods, teens face intense pressure to join a gang and embrace a lifestyle of crime and violence. But some find their way into an unlikely rival gang, one that has been promoting integrity and achievement for more than a century—the Boy Scouts of America. With support from the metals industry, the Boy […]