As was mentioned earlier in tonight’s newsletter, our 2017 SMU Steel Summit Conference will be a sell-out this year and the question really is what day this week will we close registrations? I am both surprised and humbled by the response we have gotten to this year’s event. Our team works very hard to put […]
Below is the latest data released by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through June 2017. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for June 2017 increased 0.3 percent […]
I was advised late on Friday afternoon that we should expect a Nucor price increase early next week. With scrap prices firming $10 to $30 per ton our expectation is for the increase to be $25-$30 per ton. Then the question will be will the industry support another increase after tepid (at best) support for […]
Even though the Trump administration has postponed a decision on Section 232, the possibility of trade action that will further restrict steel imports is still influencing the market, according to comments from service centers, manufacturers and trading companies gathered in last week’s Steel Market Update Flat Roll Market Trends questionnaire. Two-thirds of all steel buyers […]
Rumor vs. Fact – I was speaking with Tim Triplett (our Executive Editor who recently joined SMU after a 19 year stint at Metal Center News) and we were talking about the “rumor” of a potential price hike by Nucor. Tim raised the question, as members of the media, is it appropriate for us to […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are fairly optimistic about their chances for success in the current market, though the various metrics Steel Market Update uses to gauge future demand are sending mixed signals. One likely cause is the uncertainty injected into the market by the Trump administration’s now-delayed Section 232 investigation. According to the latest SMU […]
We have been incredibly busy this week as we work toward getting all of the pieces of the SMU Steel Summit Conference puzzle to fit together as seamlessly as possible. There are a number of firsts for this conference, but I am going to wait until the conference starts for many of them to be […]
The lack of a committed market direction by service centers, coupled with strong imports and inventories that SMU believes are balanced to slightly bloated at the distributors, has prompted us to move our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. In an interesting development, twice as many manufacturing companies reported that flat rolled steel […]
Responses to two questions in Steel Market Update’s latest flat roll market trends analysis elicited a clear consensus from our participants: The Trump administration’s delay in acting on Section 232 could open the door to more foreign steel imports. But the government should not necessarily penalize foreign countries just because they export a high rate […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July was released on Friday with a gain in jobs that exceeded analysts’ expectations. The May result was revised down by 7,000 and June was revised up by 9,000 positions. Using a three-month moving average (3MMA), the July result was 195,000 jobs, which was pulled down […]
I adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. I did this after spending time analyzing the results from last week’s flat rolled steel market trends survey, looking at what was being recorded by some of the other indexes, noting that Congress and the president are on holiday for a few weeks and there […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
The following article is from responses left to a question we had in our early August flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire. We inquired about how buyers and sellers of steel felt regarding steel prices with Section 232 somewhat sidelined for awhile. Results were mixed. Nearly half of the respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index continues to represent buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel as being optimistic about their companies’ ability to be successful in both the current market environment as well as three to six months into the future. As a single data point collected by Steel Market Update as part of […]
Flat rolled lead times have seen little change in the past month. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets based on responses to a comprehensive questionnaire. When looking at lead times, the analysis is restricted to responses from manufacturers and distributors, who accounted for 84 […]
Over the course of this week, Steel Market Update has been canvassing active participants in the flat rolled steel markets as we try to capture any changes in market trends. The more than 100 respondents we had this week provided us a snapshot on how steel mills are handling price negotiations. As a group, respondents […]
Total construction expenditures are expanding slowly, but the contraction of infrastructure expenditures is accelerating, according to June data for construction put in place (CPIP) released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Aug. 1. Total construction still shows positive growth, but slowed to 1.3 percent year/year in the latest three months of data. Privately funded […]
It has been another busy week here at Steel Market Update. We are hearing from steel buyers that Nucor is considering raising flat rolled prices by $25 per ton within the next few working days. The increase would follow an increase in ferrous scrap prices for August delivery. We have also heard that at least […]
Automotive sales dropped sharply for most manufacturers in July. Edmunds and WardsAuto estimate total sales for the month to be 1.42 million units. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for July is expected to be 16.9 million, according to WardsAuto. “July is historically a strong month, but with disappointing sales and inventories still building, something needs […]
I apologize in advance if it seems like I have an overly narrow focus (conference, conference, conference – Steel 101 workshop). Our conference is but a few weeks away and there are literally hundreds of things that need to get done (and get done correctly) before we even travel to Atlanta. I have been in […]
In the Key Indicators data released in July, both the present situation and trends have recovered from what now appears to have been a temporary downward blip in June. Trends lead the present situation by about four months. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those […]
I had to smile on Friday when Brett in my office forwarded an email to me from one of the steel mills. Here is part of what this mill executive had to say: “I occasionally write to John just to vent. It doesn’t help him, but it makes me feel better. Section 232 is the […]
It is much like a broken record playing 232, 232 over and over again. I read an article on World Trade Online this morning that quoted White House trade advisor Peter Navarro who said, “…the Trump administration’s trade moves over its first six months will pale in comparison to the ‘amazing’ steps it will take […]
Low supply muted sales of existing homes in June, said the National Association of Realtors. Sales slipped 1.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million, the second lowest level this year. Sales were 0.7 percent above the June 2016 rate. “Closings were down in most of the country last month […]
Light vehicle sales are slowing and Mexico continues to take production share from the U.S. Vehicle sales in the U.S. averaged 17.0 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the first six months of 2017, down from 18.1 million in Q4 2016. March through June monthly sales were each below 17.0 million […]
Wilbur Ross will be on Capital Hill again this week as he advises the House Ways and Means Committee on the status of his Section 232 investigation. It seems like the longer the market waits for an announcement (or at least the recommendations from the Department of Commerce) the less enthusiastic people are that anything […]
The steel market is waiting anxiously to see if the Trump administration places additional tariffs or quotas on steel imports. Opponents of the proposed Section 232 trade action say it will be bad for the U.S. economy, in particular U.S. manufacturers that will have to pay more for raw materials, making them less competitive versus […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled steel market. We invite 650 individuals representing approximately 625 different companies to participate by taking an online questionnaire. The questions cover a wide variety of topics that are germane to their unique industry segment. The two main groups asked to […]
Boy, am I receiving mixed messages – more than I think I ever have before during my 40 year plus career in (or covering) the industry. My opinion is the mixed messages are due to the interference in “normal” market operations by the Trump administration. This is especially destructive when promises are made for Section […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen some erosion since peaking at +77 around March 1. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market and three to six months into the future. Buyers and sellers of […]