U.S. auto sales may have finally reached the peak that that analysts have been predicting. Overall the market declined 6 percent for sales of 1,536,276 light vehicles. WardsAuto places May’s seasonally adjusted annual rate at 17.4 million units, up from 17.3 in April, but short of the 17.6 million from a year ago. Trucks once […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States indicated prices continue to rise, albeit at a slightly slower pace than what we measured last week. MoMo has been positive (indicating higher prices) for the last 22 weeks, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing […]
My understanding is most of the mills canceled any scrap not yet delivered by the end of May. They do this when they believe scrap negotiations for June will result in better prices for them. It is still very early in the negotiation process, especially considering that Monday was a holiday. One scrap expert told […]
The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices shows home prices continue to rise across the U.S. On a year-over-year basis, the U.S. National Home Price Index in March gained 5.2 percent while the 10- and 20-City Composites remained unchanged at 4.7 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis the […]
U.S. flat rolled steel service centers were able to reduce their excess inventories by 222,000 tons, according to our proprietary analysis of the MSCI data released earlier this month. Our Apparent Excess/Deficit model has the distributors carrying a 46,000 ton excess as of the end of April. This is the first time we have seen […]
Both auto and light truck sales in the US dropped abruptly in March but recovered to different degrees in April. Auto sales declined from 7.4 million units in February at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to 6.9 million in March then recovered partially to 7.1 million in April. Light trucks declined from 10.2 million […]
To all of our U.S. readers, welcome back from the Memorial Day Holiday. Each holiday is a big deal to me as this past weekend was one of those rare occasions where I wasn’t writing or studying the market every day and was able to actually take a couple of days off and give my […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States indicated prices continue to rise albeit at a slightly slower pace than what we measured last week. MoMo has been positive (indicating higher prices) for the 21st consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing […]
There could be a further divergence between hot rolled base pricing and that of coated steels. With the combination of the corrosion resistant “final determination” ruling by the US Department of Commerce and the reduction of hot rolled price offers from offshore into the United States, well, things are a little out of whack. In […]
Sales of new single-family houses in April surged 16.6 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released by the Commerce Department. The increase in percentage was the highest since January 1992 and the highest annual rate since 2008. Sales were up 23.8 percent from the April 2015. March […]
the U.S. Department of Commerce will release their Final Determination on the corrosion resistant antidumping and countervailing duty trade suit on Wednesday, May 25th (not today). We will have a full report once we receive the announcement on Wednesday. Steel Market Update will not publish our newsletter on Sunday, May 29th due to the Memorial […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts our flat rolled steel market trends analysis. During the process we find out how buyers and sellers are feeling about their company’s ability to be successful in the current steel environment (SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index) and we probe many other areas of interest to those manufacturing, […]
The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales in April rose 1.7 percent from March for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million. Sales were 6.0 percent higher than in April 2015. “Primarily driven by a convincing jump in the Midwest, where home prices are most affordable, sales activity overall was at a […]
In this evening’s issue we have quite a bit of information about China and the debate regarding Chinese exports, over-capacity and perhaps implosion of steel prices by the end of June. We also have a letter from a manufacturing company who asked the question, why don’t we accept the transfer of wealth from China to […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to remain optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment (our Current Sentiment Index). On a single data point our Current Sentiment Index was down -1 point from the beginning of May. However, we prefer to use the three month moving average […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update began canvassing the flat rolled steel market as part of our mid-May flat rolled steel market trends analysis. One of the areas we probe is that of mill lead times, the amount of time it takes to get an order produced for new orders placed this week. […]
As the thunderstorms erupt around our offices one of our indices is quite calm. The calming blue color of our bar graph depicts what buyers and sellers are telling us is happening during the negotiation process between mills and their customers: take it or leave it. Respondents to our mid-May flat rolled steel market trends […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 20th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
I saw a headline in another steel periodical stating that the USS/POSCO price increase was a reaction to the US DOC Final Determination on cold rolled. That doesn’t make sense to me. My understanding is UPI was behind in its pricing and needed to catch up. The new pricing is not outrageous when compared to […]
Housing starts in April increased 6.6 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,172,000, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Commerce Department. On a year over year basis housing start were down 1.7 percent. Single-family housing starts in April were at a […]
I am in Sylvania, Ohio at our Steel 101 workshop. I want to thank North Star BlueScope for working with us and coming to our workshop this afternoon to discuss their mill, what happened that caused them to cancel our tour and to discuss their mill with our attendees. By the way, it’s a little […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through March 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for March 2016 decreased 21.6 percent […]
I am in Ohio as we will be hosting another one of our Steel 101 workshops in Sylvania, Ohio. The accident at North Star BlueScope has resulted in the loss of our mill tour. However, I believe this program will be one of the strongest presented as we have been working overtime to fill the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 19th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
One of the most over used and misunderstood terms in the steel industry is “value added.” What exactly does “value” and “value added” mean when discussing steel distribution in particular? When asking the question, the first response I tend to get is about the “value proposition” or how perceived value relates to price, service and […]
Good evening (or Good Morning depending on when you read our newsletter) from Chicago. The mood is upbeat by most attending the Boy Scout Dinner due to the rising steel prices which have helped service centers and steel mills get healthier. A couple of secondary steel service centers told me that their business has also […]
Last week SMU asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire about when they expected a break in the current flat rolled steel pricing cycle and for prices to begin heading lower. There was no consensus as 50 percent of those responding felt the change would occur prior to the 4th Quarter […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. March data was released on Monday May 2nd. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
My final thoughts are going to be short this evening. The word that keep going through my head today as I spoke with buyers and sellers of steel was “worry.” The number of people who worry about what is going to happen next seems to be growing by leap years on a daily basis. I […]
Economists participating last week in the CMD Webinar: Is Construction Gaining or Waning were generally optimistic about the economy and forecast for construction growth. Although some sectors of construction peaked last year, growth is continuing in almost all areas, although at a slower pace. During the webinar, chief economists Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of […]