Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 29, 2016
Earlier this evening we concluded the second day of our three day Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. The conference kicked off on Monday afternoon with trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz discussing antidumping/countervailing duty and other trade related items and remedies.
Today we had a full day with speakers representing Steel Dynamics, Cliffs Natural Resources, Cargill, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, IHS Global Insight, First River Consulting, Smart Advantage and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Early indications were that the conference is being well received and we are looking forward to the last day of the program which will be kicked off with Alan Beaulieu of the Institute of Trends Research.
As explained earlier we will produce this week’s price ranges and averages on Thursday rather than this evening due to not wanting to conduct pricing discussions during the conference.
A note that next Monday is a holiday and we will not produce our newsletter on Sunday evening. We will produce an issue on Thursday of this week and then again next Tuesday.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?