Category: SMU

The dollar premium cold-rolled coil (CRC) carries over hot-rolled coil (HRC) continues to expand according to our latest scope of the market.

SMU’s sheet prices firmed up modestly this week, even as CME hot rolled futures declined. What gives? My channel checks suggest that demand remains stable and that buyers have returned to the market following new HR base prices announced by mills earlier this month. I’m looking forward to seeing whether lead times, which have stabilized, will start extending. SMU will have more to share on that front when we release updated lead time figures on Thursday. As for HR futures, what a reversal! As David Feldstein wrote last Thursday, bulls expected mill price increase announcements. And we briefly saw the May contract climb as high as ~$1,000 per short ton (st).

Domestic raw steel production slipped for the second consecutive week, and is now at a seven-week low, according to the most recent data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

There’s that concept from Adam Smith we all learn about in our Econ 101 classes: The Invisible Hand. A simple Google search will provide a refresh, but if memory serves I would classify it as something akin to “the market is magic” or “the market’s gonna market.” Today, obviously, we live in a mixed environment. There are a lot of hands out there, and they’re not too difficult to see. In this election year of 2024, one of the most visible hands out there probably belongs to the federal government.

World steel output slipped in February according to World Steel Association’s (worldsteel) latest monthly report. With the exception of January’s surge, monthly production levels have declined ten out of the past eleven months.

With Earth Day almost a month away, the world’s attention often turns to the manufacturing sector with calls for greener production processes.

I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.

2024 started with a $200 per short ton (st), one-week demon drop in the CME Midwest hot-rolled (HR) coil futures. Then, HR futures consolidated in the low $800s/st with the April future trading to as low as $770/st as the curve shifted into contango or upward sloping. A big move was expected, and a big […]

Earlier this week SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market chatter.

The United Steelworkers (USW) union has endorsed President Joe Biden for a second term in office.

SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.

Data on US industrial production, capacity utilization, new orders, and inventories remained overall steady and strong through January and February figures, indicating a healthy manufacturing sector. The strength of the manufacturing economy has a direct bearing on the health of the steel industry.

Domestic production of raw steel moved lower last week, slipping back down after recovering the week prior, according to the most recent data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Are we still looking for a bottom on sheet prices? In what direction are steel and scrap prices headed? How’s demand holding up at the moment?

Happy St. Patrick’s Day. “To govern is to choose.” Those words, reportedly first uttered by the late French Premier Pierre Mendes-France in the 1950s, resonate vividly in our time. It means that choices have consequences and that priorities must be set based on goals. Interested parties, in and out of government, raise their voices in […]

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels.

Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index recovered out of contraction territory on the heels of the pricing blitz from mills last week, according to our latest survey data.

Flat Rolled = 56.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 58.8 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled After weaker-than-expected shipments in January, US service center shipments of flat-rolled steel picked up in February, which caused supply to decrease. At the end of February, service centers carried 56.6 shipping days of flat-rolled steel supply on an […]

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down while the Future Sentiment Index ticked up, according to our most recent survey data

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

To the surprise of few if any, prices are in a holding pattern – a trend not seen since late December. The pause comes largely in response to a pricing notice blitz from mills late last week.

Prices of most steelmaking raw materials have moved lower over the last 30 days, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis.

Steel buyers found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU tracks with the exception of hot rolled, according to our most recent survey data.

Steel mill lead times were flat to slightly up, according to our market survey this week.

What does it mean to be a domestic steelmaker in the 21st century? Of course, that idea is open to interpretation. The vibrancy of the US industry is a testament to that. Between integrateds, EAFs, how to approach decarbonization, downstream ventures, American innovation goes in many directions.

The apparent supply of steel in the US increased in January, rising to a five-month high, according to data compiled from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

US steel exports jumped to 770,649 short tons (st) in January, rising 25% from the 12-month low recorded one month prior.

Reaction to the price announcements last week by domestic mills varied just a little depending on who you were speaking to. I heard rumblings before the announcements that a price hike of $100 per short ton (st) was coming. After the announcements were made, I had some questions as to whether they were increases at all.

Domestic shipments of heating and cooling equipment were up marginally in January, according to the latest data released from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

The latest steel import license data from the US Commerce Department shows 2.39 million short tons (st) of steel entered the country in February 2024, down 6% from the month prior.