Market Data
April 12, 2024
Written by Ethan Bernard
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both rose this week.
Every other week, we poll steel buyers about their companies’ chances of success in the current market as well as three to six months down the road. We use this information to calculate our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index and our Future Sentiment Index. (We have historical data dating to 2008. You can find that here.)
US sheet and plate prices continued to march higher this week as a market squeeze that’s been in place for months now showed no signs of letting up. Market participants, some mostly focused on 2027 contract negotiations, said that it was increasingly difficult to even get a quote for spot tonnage from domestic mills, which firmly retain their grip on pricing power. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at...
The volume of finished steel that entered the US market increased 1% from July to August to the second-highest monthly level recorded in the past four years, according to SMU’s analysis of recently released Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. Apparent steel supply is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports. It can be used as a proxy for domestic steel demand. Supply has remained historically strong since May, when it surpassed the 9 million st mark it had previously been beneath for four years.
Domestic mills shipped roughly the same amount of steel in August as they did in July, according to the latest figures from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). US mills shipped 8,220,544 short tons (st) in August, up marginally from 8,219,549 in July, AISI said. But while the month-over-month (m/m) comparison was roughly flat, year-over-year (y/y) comparisons point to a significant increase in domestic shipments.
Total shipments of heating and cooling equipment cooled further in August, according to the latest figures from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). After falling 11% month on month (m/m) in July, shipments slipped another 10% in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year-to-date. Shipments of water heaters, air conditioners, and heat pumps declined m/m, while warm-air furnace shipments picked up. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pumps increased.
US steel exports fell 3% from July to August, continuing the decline from June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low for over a year and remain weak in comparison to volumes seen across 2022-2024. August trade was down 2% compared to the same month of 2025, 25% lower than August 2024, 29% lower than August 2023, and 21% lower than August 2022.