US heating and cooling equipment shipments declined 3% in September, according to data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Total shipments in September were 1.94 million units, down 7% from levels one year earlier. Shipment levels have bounced around in recent months. September saw a month-over-month (MoM) increase of 12%. July plunged […]
Housing costs continue to rise in the third quarter. New homes are now more expensive than they’ve been in more than a decade, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said. The result: the housing market has tipped into a recession. The trend has been driven by rising mortgage rates, ongoing building material supply chain […]
Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index remained roughly steady this week, as it has seen since mid-September. Our Future Buyers Sentiment Index inched down three points but remains in line with levels recorded in late September. Buyers Sentiment peaked earlier this year. It has trended downward since May but nonetheless remains in positive […]
The construction industry added just 1,000 employees in October as firms competed to hire from a small labor pool, the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) reported after analysis of new government data. The dynamic has continued to drive hourly wages higher, illustrating the struggle construction firms face in their search for qualified workers, the […]
Steel prices continue to slide, and apparently so does sentiment. Based on SMU’s latest check of the market, sheet prices once again fell across the board, grinding lower and nearing levels some never expected to see again. Speculation that hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices will be at or near the $600-per-ton mark takes center stage with […]
Steel buyers continue to hold the upper hand in price negotiations with mills — a position they have enjoyed for nearly six months. A very high percentage of sheet buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an order. Negotiations on plate products are not as common, with slightly more […]
Steel mill lead times were steady to down this week compared to our previous market check. Production times shrunk for four products tracked by SMU and slightly extended for one. Lead times retracted by an average of 0.2 weeks compared to two weeks ago and are half a week shorter than levels one month ago. […]
US construction spending in September totaled $1.811 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), just 0.2% above August after August’s 0.6% decline. The unexpected rebound in September came amid a surge in nonresidential investment that offset declining outlays on single-family homebuilding, according to data from the US Commerce Department. The month-on-month (MoM) increase was […]
The news of the day, outside of politics (I hear we have an election), is that US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) finally struck a deal. That’s good news if you were hoping to take an unknown factor out of the market. It’s bad news if you were hoping for higher prices on a […]
The Dodge Momentum Index registered 199.7 in October, up 9.6% from 182.2 September, according to data and analytics from the Dodge Construction Network. Dodge is the leading index for commercial real estate, using the data of planned nonresidential building projects to track spending in the sector for the next 12 months. For October, the index’s subcomponents also […]
Nucor on Thursday confirmed its plate prices would remain unchanged with the opening of its December order book. Though the market was anxiously awaiting the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker’s announcement, few were surprised by it. Why? It’s not clear that a price decrease at this stage in the fourth quarter would generate buying. And it would devalue […]
Spending on nonresidential construction now outpaces residential construction projects, the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) reported. Construction spending hit $1.811 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in September, a 0.2% increase versus August and up nearly 11% year-on-year (YoY). “Demand remains strong for a range of nonresidential construction segments despite supply chain challenges […]
Steel prices really took a dive this week. I’ve noted before that some of that could be explained by seasonal factors. And it doesn’t help that inflation and rising interest rates are hurting consumer demand. But it’s also important to keep an eye on what was said during recent earnings calls. Because I think some […]
Apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US edged down slightly in SMU’s latest analysis of demand and lead time dynamics. Despite the slight decline in the latter half of October, the month’s SMU Steel Demand Index closed out roughly 2.5 points above September’s reading but remained in contracting territory for the sixth straight month […]
Sheet prices are down yet again, with our hot-rolled coil price now at its lowest point since late October 2020. The question two years ago was how far prices might rise as demand snapped back from the pandemic faster than supply could be brought online to meet it. The question now is when and where […]
SMU has released its latest full survey results, and I want to highlight some big changes that we’ve seen in the data compared to just two weeks ago. Chief among them is what appears to be a big shift in service center pricing and buying patterns. We had seen most service centers trying to hold […]
After ticking downward in the middle of October, Steel Market Update’s (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices both saw marginal increases this week. Buyers Sentiment has trended downward overall since May, with buyers concerned about high inventory costs, dismal demand, and a slowing economy. SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index attempts to measure how steel buyers feel about […]
In a positive sign for the automotive market, General Motors Co. completed and shipped a large number of vehicles in the third quarter, effectively increasing its US dealer inventories. “As we’ve moved through the year, we’ve seen gradual improvement in the supply chain, including semiconductors,” chairwoman and CEO Mary Barra said on the company’s Q3 […]
I want to give a shoutout to the North American Steel Alliance (NASA) for giving me the opportunity to provide a keynote address at their Forecast Conference in Chicago earlier this week. And I want to take a minute to dive deeper into SMU’s lead time figures, one of the indicators I highlighted at the event as […]
As steel prices ease week after week, the power position in price negotiations between steel mills and steel purchasers continues to rest with buyers, as it has since June. According to our latest check on the market, a high percentage of buyers continue to report that mills are willing to talk price to secure an […]
Steel mill lead times declined across the board this week for all products tracked by SMU. Our latest lead times analysis shows that production times on sheet products decreased by 0.2–0.5 weeks compared to our previous market check two weeks ago, while plate lead times dipped 0.1 weeks. On average, lead times retracted by 0.3 weeks compared to […]
Don’t look now but sheet price erosion continues, with tags across all flat-rolled products inching lower this week, according to SMU’s latest check of the market. For some time now we’ve been trying to gauge SMU survey respondents’ sentiment and their sense of market direction by asking when they think HRC prices will bottom out […]
The news about AD/CVD orders being removed from Brazil on Friday was notable in that it bucked, in a small way, the trend toward regionalism and protectionism that we’ve seen growing since at least 2014. I noted in my initial writeup – as did Lewis Leibowitz in his deeper dive – that the market impact […]
Nearly two-thirds of US states added construction jobs month-on-month (MoM) in September. Most also boosted construction employment during the past twelve months, according to Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) figures. AGC said the job gains were welcome news even if significant labor shortages probably prevented an even bigger upswing in employment. “While it is encouraging […]
Well, earnings season is now well underway. We’ve seen the early reporters like steel processor Worthington Steel (who announced it will be splitting off its steel segment and creating two separate, publicly traded businesses), as well as tube producer Webco, and steel and metal manufacturer Commercial Metals Co. all report strong results in their latest earnings. […]
Existing-home sales shrank in September, retreating for an eighth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Three out of the four major US regions saw sales decline month-over-month (MoM) in September while sales in the West held steady. Sales were down across each region year-over-year (YoY). September sales fell 1.5% from August […]
US light vehicle (LV) sales grew in September, coming in at 1.15 million units, unadjusted. Last month’s total was a 10.8% increase year-on-year (YoY), the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. The YoY gain was just the second since July 2021. While this was the second consecutive month of YoY increases, it was helped […]
North American auto assemblies declined by 8.7% in September after reaching their highest mark in nearly two years the month prior. Despite the lower output in September, production was a hefty 39.6% higher year-on-year (YoY) and still the third-best total year-to-date (YTD), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing […]
What a difference a week can make. The lack of clarity in the short-to-medium-term direction presently in steel seems to be stumping maybe even the best and the brightest of flat-rolled buyers. And perhaps as Michael Cowden indicated in SMU’s prior Final Thoughts, the steel market might be somewhere in the middle — in-between bearish […]
A new railcar manufacturing facility will soon be built in Washington County, Md. Hitachi Rail announced plans for a $70 million factory to build all types of trains to meet growing demand in North America’s rail market. Construction of the facility’s building will use 1,050 tons of steel including joists, girders, and structural steel columns. […]