• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    HRC Futures: March Madness Three Years Running

    Written by David Feldstein


    Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active in the ferrous derivatives space since 2012.

    The aggressive momentum in CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures has fizzled in recent days. The curve is on track for the first week-over-week decline since January. Today’s selling started well before the day got started in the US, indicating the downside pressure originated from London-based trading desks. What motivated the aggressive selling? Was it an attempt to shake out the weak longs? Was it profit-taking? 

    David Feldstein, SMU Contributor

    David Feldstein

    Read more from David Feldstein

    Latest in Analysis

    ArcelorMittal sees N. American shipments flat in Q4 as Calvert ramps up

    ArcelorMittal expects North American steel shipments to be flat sequentially in the fourth quarter, as recovery from Canadian and Mexican disruptions is expected to be offset by normal seasonality and maintenance. The company reported third-quarter shipments of 2.645 million metric tons, down 6.6% sequentially but up 1% year over year (y/y). It attributed the shipment decline primarily to lower long product volumes. North America sales were nearly $3.7 billion in Q3’26, nearly level with the previous quarter but 11% higher y/y. Average selling prices rose 5.7% sequentially to $1,228 per metric ton (mt).

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.