Our publication of the steel version of Twas the Night Before Christmas has created a competitive stir. We received a second submission of a Christmas tune with the words adjusted to represent a more steel flavor. Here is Santa Claus is Coming to Town: To the tune of Santa Claus is coming to town: You […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing Futures articles for […]
Every year Keith Gunter of McElroy Metal produces a Christmas poem dedicated to recent steel events and wishes for the New Year. Take a moment to enjoy this year’s spin on the old classic, Twas the Night Before Christmas: T’was almost Christmas,So time to reflect on the year,Cost has had its ups and downs,But has […]
House Speaker Paul Ryan and other Republicans removed the Buy America provision from the Drinking Water State Revolving fund sparking controversy among legislators in the House and Senate. The Buy America legislation in the Water Resources Development Act, introduced by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), passed the Senate in September with broad bipartisan support. Said Baldwin, […]
Wilbur Ross Jr. has been tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as Commerce Secretary. Ross is a billionaire investor known as the “bankruptcy king.” Forbes estimates the Ross fortune at $2.9 billion made by buying and restructuring troubled companies. One of those companies was Donald Trump’s bankrupt casino in the 1990s. Ross was a […]
In November net job creation was 178,000 which was about in line with analysts’ expectations. The employment situation is strong enough for the Fed to likely go ahead with a target rate increase later this month. September employment numbers were revised up by 17,000 and October down by 19,000. Using a three month moving average […]
Manufacturing conditions improved across the globe in November, according to the latest JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index rose to a 27 month high of 52.1, inching up slightly from 52.0 in October. Expansion was noted in 22 of the 30 nations covered under the global survey. New order growth was the strongest […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. This article is normally reserved for our Premium level members but we are sharing it with all of our readers in an effort to give you some taste of what kind of analysis you get with a Premium membership to […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Interesting futures markets in steel lately. Today Q1’17 HR traded at $625/ST, 1,200 ST/mo. Also Jan/Feb’17 HR traded at $625/ST, 500 ST/mo. […]
The first thing that jumps out at you when reviewing the end of the month data for November is the pace of the price index averages as they push toward $600 hot rolled (which we believe we may hit by the end of the calendar year). Our monthly average at $522 per ton was $11 […]
The ISM Report on Business showed economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanding in November for the third month in a row. The PMI, which covers manufacturing activity for the entire United States, rose to 53.2 percent from 51.9 in October. New orders increased by 0.9 points to 53 percent and production rose 1.4 percentage […]
The November Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI as it is also known, leapt 7 points from October to register 57.6. The reading was the highest since January 2015 with four of the five components of the index showing improvement. On a three month moving average the index increased two points to 54.1. New orders […]
There has been a great deal of discussion on how the Trump administration will affect manufacturing and the steel industry in the coming months. Steel Market Update asked AISI and domestic steel mills what regulations they would like to see repealed under the new administration and what kind of environment for steel and manufacturing they […]
Metalforming companies are expecting a minor decline in business conditions during the next three months, according to the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA). The majority of the November survey respondents (79 percent) expect economic activity to remain the same or decline. Shipping levels were reported to be overall steady, with the average […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had an all-time high of 106.28 in December 2014 and trended down through June this year when it experienced a three month turnaround followed by a slight decline in October to 104.32. Figure […]
Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Currently available GDP data is through the third quarter, other data included here is through October. Many analysts don’t believe these Party self-serving figures but we include them in our reports because of the importance […]
Orders for durable goods in October rose faster than expected by economists. The Commerce Department reported orders were up 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of $239.4 billion. Civilian aircraft orders led the increase, jumping 1.4 percent from September to October. Core capital goods, which are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft considered to be […]
This article was written by Paul Lowrey, President of Steel Research Associates, LLC. Over the last couple of years, a lot of attention has been paid to the high level of imports of steel mill products into the USA. Surprisingly, however, indirect steel imports have not received a lot of attention. Both the American Iron […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value we have was dated November 10th, Figure 1. The dollar has appreciated strongly since the election in anticipation of higher interest […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Andre and Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: The bearishness was so thick 1-2 months ago you could cut it with a knife! The steel futures were getting crushed, […]
The Architecture Billings Index rebounded modestly in October, registering 50.8 after dipping below the neutral point in September and August. Fewer firms, however, reported an increase in new inquiries or in value of design contracts signed during the month. Both inquiries and design contract indexes fell for the second month in a row with the […]
Business activity stabilized in New York State according to the November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The index rose eight points to a reading of 1.5, bringing the index out of contraction for the first time in four months but leaving manufacturing relatively flat for the month. New orders and shipments picked up and indices […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter of 2016 was 2.91 percent which was the best result since the Q3 of 2014. Economy.com had this to say: “Prospects remain bright. Consumers are doing their part and spending growth will remain strong as labor markets tighten and wage increases accelerate. […]
In October net job creation was 161,000. August was revised up by 9,000 and September revised up by 35,000. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result for October was 176,000 down from 233,000 in August and from 206,000 in September. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created as the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
At the end of August Cliffs Natural Resources Chairman, President and CEO, Lourenco Goncalves spoke at the SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. During his “fireside chat” with SMU founder and publisher, John Packard, Goncalves was upbeat about the future of the steel industry and of the United States. Later, in comments made before SMU […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel – HR futures The Hot Rolled futures market this past week has been characterized by limited trading activity. There have been numerous […]
Accelerating production and new orders raised the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI to 52.0 in October, its highest level in two years. Manufacturing conditions improved in 22 of the 31 nations surveyed. Those nations that contracted were primarily in Asia (South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Myanmar), said JP Morgan and IHS Markit, along […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) reported a shift in steel pricing “Momentum” at the end of October as our Steel Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted first to Neutral and then to Higher. Our expectation is for domestic flat rolled steel prices to increase over the next 30-60 days. Sentiment, however, has been trending lower with our […]
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a faster rate in October, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI index, which covers manufacturing activity for the entire United States, registered 51.9, a 0.4 increase from September. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing economy and below 50 indicates […]