Design service demand picked up in May according to the American Institute of Architects. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) picked up 3 points to register 52.6 after two months of contraction. The new projects inquiry index moved up 4.1 points to 63.2. (A reading below 50 indicates contraction and a reading above 50 indicates an […]
The Canadian government approved a controversial oil pipeline project that will extend 732 miles from the oil sands in Alberta to British Columbia. The Enbridge Northern Gateway project is expected to carry 525,000 barrels of crude oil to the Pacific coast for shipment to Asia. The $6.5 billion project took on a new urgency with […]
Builder confidence in the new built, single-family housing market rose in June. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) registered 49, just a point below the reading of 50 that indicates good building conditions. “After several months of little fluctuation, a four-point uptick in builder sentiment is a welcome sign […]
A downturn in business conditions is coming, said participants in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report for June. Fewer participants are expecting conditions to improve in the next three months (31 percent, down from 33 percent) and more are expecting that economic activity will decline (15 percent, up from 7 percent). PMA president […]
An increase in manufacturing activity in New York took analysts by surprise in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general business index in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of 19.28, up from 19.01 in May. Economists were expecting the index to decline to 15.0 in June. The new […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months, (Figure 1) which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. The currencies of the steel trading nations have been fairly stable over the last month. Table 1 shows the number of […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk and our Managing Price Risk I & II workshops instructor writes about the financial and futures markets, including hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures trading over the past week. You will also be able to see Andre speak at our Steel Summit Conference in September (3 & 4) in […]
Funding for the FY 2015 appropriations bill that supports the US Army Corps of Engineers and projects in the WRRDA has been approved by the House Appropriations Committee. Funding for the Corps civil works projects is $5.493 billion. Below is a reprint of a press release by Waterways Council Inc. praising the Committee’s approval and […]
We are including this article because it puts the Fed’s post-recession activities into perspective. Our recollection is that the European central bankers scoffed at the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and TARP programs when they were initiated in 2008. The European Central bank, (ECB) has taken the single currency block into uncharted waters by sending the […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 217,000 jobs were added in May, April was revised down by 6,000 to 282,000 and March was unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose from 190,000 in March to 236,000 in April then declined by 2,000 in May, (Figure 1). All numbers […]
The Institute for Supply Management has a sub-group of steel buyers who survey their members once per month in order to track trends affecting the steel industry. In the most recent survey, the ISM Steel Buyers group reported foreign steel mills and their domestic representatives as much more aggressively seeking steel orders from U.S. steel […]
The housing bubble in China has popped according to economists. The oversupply of housing and shortage of developer financing will slow China’s GDP growth to less than 6 percent in 2014 says a recent report by Japanese investment company Nomura. Nomura says a “hard landing” may be in China’s future due to a 33 percent […]
Truck capacity may get a boost from new orders to manufacturers. Orders for Class 8 trucks increased by 14.2 percent in May for a total of 26,900 units, according to ACT Research. The increase in truck capacity is good news for the industry that is at an all time high capacity. The bad news is […]
The past few weeks have been dire for the futures market in terms of volumes or price volatility. While the physical market has peaked for now, the futures market remains in a strong backwardation with prices for second half the year and calendar year 2015 stuck between 620-630 per ton. While the global picture, particularly […]
Steel inputs were steady to down during the month of May. Scrap prices declined $18 to $3 per ton while iron ore prices were down $20.60 to $13.60 per ton. Zinc and Aluminum prices showed a slight increased of $0.0105 to $0.0074 per pound.
The auto sale roundup for May started out with gusto. Early reporter Chrysler posted US automotive sales at 194,421 units, a 17 percent increase year over year. Chrysler’s Jeep brand set a sales record in May with 64 percent jump in sales. On CNBC this morning, they were reporting Chrysler as saying their forecast was […]
Manufacturing expanded for the 12th consecutive month in May according to the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business released by the Institute of Supply Management. The PMI registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percent. The new orders index grew 1.8 points to 56.9. The production index gained 5.3 points to a reading of 61.0 percent. Employment continued […]
Steel Market Update has been following the Armada Corporate Intelligence economists since we first heard Dr. Chris Kuehl present at a conference we attended earlier this year. We were so impressed with both Dr. Kuehl’s (pronounced Keel) presentation skills and their newsletter that we invited Dr. Kuehl to be a keynote speaker at this year’s […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI made a modest uptick to 52.2 in May after dropping to a six month low of 51.9 in April. Faster expansion rates were seen in production, new orders and orders for new exports. Overall improvement, however, remains modest with the average rate of increase in business conditions lower than […]
As usual we will spend a few moments taking a look at the month of May in our rear view mirror to see what transpired. SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted during the month from Higher to Neutral as we detected a change in the supply/demand dynamics with the return to full production at US […]
Economic indicators were mostly positive in May. Housing starts and sales improved while the ABI dropped. Respondents to the various economic surveys were generally upbeat about future economic and business conditions. Steel buyers looked for more of the same activity for the next six months. The abbreviated breakdown follows. New home sales bounced back in […]
The Chicago Business Barometer reached its highest level since October, climbing 2.5 point to 65.5. The new reading, when taken with other economic indicators, shows a strong recovery in the second quarter after a lackluster start to the year. This is good news for the flat rolled steel industry in North America. With winter finally […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the financial, iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week. More information about futures can […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week (as of May 29th). More information […]
The China Ministry of Finance is urging the government to step up spending to support growth in the Chinese economy. The announcement on May 28 follows a call for action by Premier Li Keqiang to increase development projects, which he considers a panacea for China’s economic woes. The notice by the Ministry has three key […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 1.3 in May. The view of the present situation rose by 1.9 as expectations rose by 0.9. These two components are converging, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, after which the view of the present situation will take the lead. On the whole consumer confidence […]
Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry, saw new orders increase for the fourth consecutive month in April ,continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession. Both March and April were above trend, (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased in both March and April, (Figure 2). […]
New home sales bounced back in April after declining for two straight months. New residential sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 in last month, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. April’s rate increased 6.4 percent following a plummet of 10 percent in […]
The past couple of weeks have been a bit brutal for the US hot rolled coil (HRC) forward curve. While the spot market is appearing to run out of steam the HRC forward curve has broken down particularly the second half 2014 periods and calendar 2015 periods. May and June have withstood this recent selling […]
The Architecture Billings Index remains in negative territory again this month. The ABI, which reflects the nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, was at 49.6 in April, up slightly from 48.8 last month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction and a reading above 50 indicates an increase in design […]