Good news from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank—manufacturing activity increased from 9.3 to 22.3 in September, its highest reading in the Business Outlook Survey since March 2011. Demand for manufactured goods increased 16 points on the new order index to 21.2. Shipments picked up from a decrease last month. Inventories and deliveries were steady […]
Increasing demand for design services fueling recovery for construction industry The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) showed more acceleration in the growth of design activity nationally. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects […]
Housing starts in August fell short of economist expectations showing just a 0.9 percent increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 891,000 units. The increase only comes after July’s rate was revised downward to 883,000 from 896,000, indicating the market may be flattening. Starts for single family homes rose 7 percent offsetting a […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index lost two points in September but conditions for New York manufacturers still indicate modest growth at 6.3. New orders picked up from a flat 0.27 in August, rising to 2.4. The shipping index surged 15 points to 16.4—its highest level in more than a year. Prices paid held […]
Metalforming companies are predicting a decline in economic activity during the next three months after showing optimism in the August survey last month. The September 2013 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report showed the number of participants forecasting a decline in activity doubled in September to 14 percent, with 51 percent expecting no change […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Friday reported August results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. For the purpose of this report, Steel […]
Iron Ore The spot price is still $135/MT zone with the forward curve still in a healthy backwardation. Most expect Iron Ore to retrace, difference of opinion lies in whether it will see a big sell off or a modest one. The recent positive economic data out of China along with not terrible inventory levels […]
Financial Markets Two weeks back we were 1640 on SP 500 and technically it looked like we were headed to 1550-1560 zone as part of a larger retracement. Well the market has dumbfounded the chartists again, and we have since rebounded to today’s level of 1682. We are likely headed now to the 1770-80 zone […]
ISM Steel Buyers in August showed more optimism that orders will improve for the next three months. Buyers expecting an increase rose to 47.1 percent, up from 38.9 percent, while the percentage of buyers expecting business to remain the same rose to 41.2 percent from 33.3 percent last month. General economic activity over the next […]
Sooner Inc., the largest U.S. distributor of pipes for oil and gas, has been purchased by Tokyo-based Marubeni-Itochu Steel Inc. for $600 million in cash. MISI subsidiary Marubeni-Itochu Tubulars America, Inc., will gain a 100 percent of share of Sooner Inc. The two companies are both based in Houston. “We are pleased to complete […]
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is initiating an investigation into dumping of hot-rolled carbon steel plate and high-strength low-allow steel plate originating or exported from Brazil, Chinese Taipei, Denmark, Indonesia, Italy, Japan and the Republic of Korea. The investigation, announced on September 5, was prompted by complaints by Essar Steel, Sault Ste. Marie, […]
Job creation at 169,000 in August was a little below expectations but the downward revision to June and July of 74,000 was very disappointing. Employment gains continue to be heavily slanted towards service industries. In August production industries added, 18,000 jobs, service industries added 151,000 jobs, (Table 1). Included in the service number is government […]
TSI Iron Ore: Prices Stay Firm, Future Is Uncertain… After breaking through the psychological ceiling of $140/ ton a couple of weeks ago, the iron ore spot market has retreated ever so slightly to $137. While this is not necessarily an indication of a reversal in the pricing trend, it may shed light on […]
The Global PMI composite index increased to 51.7 for the month of August, up from the 50.8 reading in July. This slight yet meaningful increase marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing production increased for the tenth consecutive month, with the rate of growth at the highest level recorded since […]
The summer lull continued the past couple of weeks over the holiday weekend. Activity in the futures market has been limited with few trades going through. It seems that a confluence of factors has caused many traders to sit on the sidelines, the summer holiday season, directionless physical market and uncertainty in demand going into […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 55.4 percent in July which was an increase of 4.5 percentage points above the June reading of 50.9. The 3 month moving average (3MMA) rose from 50.2 to 51.43. Any reading above 50.0 percent means manufacturing is expanding. JP Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI […]
Service Center Deficit Will Help Keep Mill Prices Firm Flat rolled inventories are at a 466,000 ton deficit according to Steel Market Update proprietary analysis of the recently released MSCI service center inventory data. The 466,000 ton deficit is the largest one we have measured since August 2009 when it was measured at 604,000 tons. […]
The number of open contracts (open interest) traded through the CME Group (NYMEX) during the month of August 2013 was 2,572 contracts (51,440 tons). This is lower than the 2,874 contracts (57,480 tons) traded in July and is 15.8 percent lower than the 3,055 contracts traded one year ago (61,100 tons). The news looks a […]
The key factor holding prices firm was the continuation of supply issues at the domestic steel mills. During the month we had ArcelorMittal Indiana Harbor lose their #3 blast furnace for a week. The furnace is back online as of the end of the month. We also had U.S. Steel performing maintenance on a furnace […]
Steel Market Update first attempt at a Monthly Newsletter was received very well. Our first issue went out at the beginning of August recapping the key events, prices and trends for the prior month (July). We have received a number of calls and emails wanting more information about how their company can subscribe to our […]
By the end of August SMU had adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral, SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +40 which is higher than the average from June and July and well within the optimistic range of our Index. Benchmark hot rolled prices moved essentially sideways as the numbers show below. […]
The Chicago Business Barometer edged up 0.7 points in August, registering 53 from a reading of 52.3 in July, according to MNI Indicators. A gain in New Orders and Backlogs helped push the indicator upwards. The slight increase, however, indicates stabilization after an erratic second quarter. MNI reports the Barometer is still too close to […]
ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) Expands for 3rd Consecutive Month Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 51st consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The report was issued today by […]
Financial Markets: Since last week’s writing the SP 500 has since rallied to test the old support above at 1670 to then fail and drop to 1627 before rebounding in the last two days to 1642. As I mentioned, we are likely in a retracement move down to the 1550 target before we can find […]
The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence increased slightly in August and the 3MMA improved from 79.1 also to 81.5 the highest value since February 2008 and up by 18.4 year over year. The view of both the present situation and expectations improved on a 3MMA basis. The consumer’s view of the present situation […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods declined by 7.3 percent in July from the very strong June result and following three consecutive monthly increases. The decline in civil aircraft orders was the main reason for the month on month decline. The three month moving average in July rose by 0.5 percent month on month to […]
Manufacturing activity is improving in the Tenth Federal District that includes the western third of Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and the northern half of New Mexico. The summary from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City follows: Tenth District manufacturing activity improved further in August, and producers’ expectations also edged higher after easing […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 22nd, 2013, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,746 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This number represents a decrease of 30 rigs from last week. Compared to last year the 1,746 count is a decrease of 222 rigs. Canadian rigs decreased by […]
This week, the SMU Fair Value HRC (hot rolled coil) Model has spot HRC pricing below Fair Value for the sixth consecutive week after briefly rising above the Fair Value price in the week of February 8th. This is due to the SMU average spot HRC index decreasing $5 per ton last week to $610 […]
The following table is of the Chinese trade data for the month of February 2013. Tonnage shown is in thousands of metric tons.