Contributor: Michael Cowden

U.S. Steel aims to increase spot prices for all new orders of flat-rolled steel by at least $30 per short ton (st), according to an internal letter dated Thursday.

Join SMU for a Community Chat next Wednesday featuring Lewis Leibowitz, a veteran trade attorney and one of our most-read columnists. The webinar will be on Oct. 30 at 11 am ET. It’s free to attend. You can register here

SMU's hot-rolled (HR) coil price slipped this week to $685 per short ton (st) on average. We also adjusted our sheet momentum indicators to lower for the first time since July.

We had an October surprise here at SMU on Wednesday. I was working from the CRU office in Pittsburgh, and the internet connection briefly went out. As luck would have it, that happened smack in the middle of a live Community Chat webinar. Fortunately, my colleague David Schollaert stepped in, Zekelman Industries CEO Barry Zekelman rolled with the punches – and the show went on. Could there be any more October surprises in store for us and for the steel market?

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) reported a drop in third-quarter profits driven largely by lower flat-rolled steel prices. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaker also saw scrap prices slip. That happened because of softer demand from domestic mills taking planned maintenance outages.

SMU’s next Community Chat webinar will feature Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries – the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturer in North America. The webinar will be on Wednesday, Oct. 16, at 11 a.m. ET. It’s free to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

I’m trying to make sure this is not a TL;DR Final Thoughts. As a journalism school professor once told me, ‘No one but your mom reads more than 1,000 words.’ Also, as the old adage goes, a picture is worth a thousand as well. With that in mind, below are a couple of charts that I think go a long way toward explaining how prices and lead times have been relatively stable despite concerns about demand.

AZZ Inc. posted sharply higher second-quarter profits driven by increased sales of and better demand for its products. The Fort Worth, Texas-based hot-dipped galvanized and coil coater reported net income of $35.4 million in the second quarter of 2024, up 43.3% from $24.7 million in the same quarter last year. It posted Q2'24 sales of $409 million, up 2.6% from $398.5 million in Q2'23.

Nucor said it would keep plate prices unchanged in a letter to customers on Wednesday. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker in addition said it was opening its November order book for plate. The company did not specify what its plate price was. It has officially kept prices flat since cutting them by $125 per short ton (st) on July 1.

It’s another week of big headlines for the world writ large – an expanding war in the Middle East, another potentially catastrophic hurricane – and not much going on in the world of steel prices. “Call me Stevie Wonder, I see nothing.” That’s how one service center executive described the current sheet market. There seems to be almost a competition among some of our Community Chat guests and contributors to outdo each other in flowery ways to say, “

Steel sheet and plate prices moved lower this week as efforts among some mills to hold the line on tags ran up against continued concerns about demand.

The International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) union and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative agreement on wages on Thursday evening. The move ends a strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports that began on Tuesday and that had threatened significant supply-chain disruptions.

Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.

The United Steelworkers (USW) union has named Kevon Stewart to be director of District 6, which represents members in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The USW said that appointment was effective on Oct. 1. It also noted that Stewart became the first black district director in the union – not only in Canada but in the United States as well.

Reliance Inc., the largest service center chain in North America, has picked Douglas Stotlar to be the next chairman of its board. The move will be effective Jan. 1, 2025. Mark Kaminski, the current chair, will then step down from that role but will remain on the board.

Join SMU’s next Community Chat webinar with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries – the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturer in North America. The webinar will be on Wednesday, Oct. 16, at 11 a.m. ET. It’s free to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) launched a strike just after midnight on Tuesday at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. The work stoppage spans from New England to New Orleans. It came after a last-ditch offer by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents maritime employers, failed to meet union demands.

Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker Algoma predicts that it will be roughly breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the second quarter of its fiscal year. The Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based company expects adjusted EBIDTA in a range from a gain of $5 million CAD ($3.7 million USD) to a loss of $5 million CAD in fiscal Q2'25.

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has reached a tentative labor agreement with Ford, averting a potential strike at a truck plant in Dearborn, Mich.

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday:

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

It’s officially fall. And here’s a funny thing about steel prices in the fall over the last few years – they tend to move in the opposite direction of the leaves. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $676 per short ton (st) in September 2023. That figure increased to $1,035/st in December 2023, a gain of 53% percent. (You can follow along with our pricing tool.)

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has threatened to strike at Stellantis and at Ford’s Dearborn, Mich., truck plant.

U.S. Steel expects third-quarter adjusted earnings of approximately $300 million, according to figures released on Thursday. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker said the result was in line with prior guidance and came despite “challenging pricing dynamics.” The company also said the third quarter likely reflected a “bottoming steel price environment.”

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.

Cleveland-Cliffs aims to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $750 per short ton (st) effective immediately. The move represents a price hike of $20/st from the Cleveland-based steelmaker's previously published price of $730/st.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) expects lower third-quarter earnings on the heels of “meaningfully lower” prices at its flat-rolled steel operations. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker expects Q3’24 earnings of $1.94 to $1.98 per diluted share, according to figures released on Monday. That’s down from $2.72 per share in Q2’24 and down from $3.47 per share in Q3’23.