Contributor: Michael Cowden

The US Securities and Exchange Commission said it has settled charges with Esmark and company founder Esmark James P. Bouchard regarding a tender offer for U.S. Steel last year.

Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.

US mills have filed or soon will file a sprawling trade petition against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 countries. The petition seeks anti-dumping margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, and South Africa. It also seeks countervailing duty margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. That’s according documents dated Sept. 5 and addressed to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and International Trade Commission (ITC) Secretary Lisa Barton.

President Joe Biden could block the $15-billion sale of U.S. Steel to Japan's Nippon Steel by citing national security concerns That’s according to reporting in the Washington Post and the Financial Times that was later picked up by the New York Times as well as in wire services.

U.S. Steel could slash thousands of jobs, shift away from integrated steelmaking, and move its headquarters out of Pittsburgh if its acquisition by Nippon Steel isn’t completed, the company’s top executive said. “We want elected leaders and other key decision makers to recognize the benefits of the deal was well as the unavoidable consequences if the deal fails,” company President and CEO David Burritt said in a statement on Wednesday.

Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)

Vice President Kamala Harris said she opposed U.S. Steel’s acquisition by Nippon Steel in a speech on Labor Day in Pittsburgh.

I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.

Flat-rolled steel prices were flat or up moderately this week amid mixed signals from the market.

The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.

Cleveland-Cliffs aims to fetch $730 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil, up $30/st from its last published price. The steelmaker said the move was effectively immediately and “due to ongoing market developments” in a letter to customers on Wednesday, Aug. 21.

Sheet prices trended sideways to modestly up this week in a market that appears to be in “wait-and-see” mode.

More than 1,400 of you are now signed to attend Steel Summit – which kicks off next week at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. We are very close to beating last year’s record attendance. So, if you’re on the fence, help us be part of steel history again – register here!

Lead times for hot-rolled coil and plate have moved out a little, according to our latest survey data. Brett Linton has the details here. I think that might reflect some restocking and a host of fall maintenance outages – many of which are happening in September/October. But lead times aren't galloping away like some of the more bullish corners of the market might have hoped. And those for cold-rolled and coated products are largely unchanged.

I asked in a prior Final Thoughts where some of you thought Nucor’s weekly spot HR price would land. One opinion: $720 per short ton (st). That would allow the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker to one up competitor Cleveland-Cliffs and to re-establish its position as a market leader.

SMU has adjusted its sheet momentum indicator from neutral to higher for the first time since early April. The shift comes on the back of price hikes for leading sheet mills Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs.

It might be the dog days of summer. But it’s been a newsy week for steel. Let’s start on the trade front, where we had a big decision in a case before the Commerce Department about Vietnam’s market status. Ethan Bernard covered the news. Commerce determined that Vietnam remained a “non-market economy,” or NME, based on factors such as government control over private property, labor conditions, and one-party rule. What’s also notable, and which Wiley trade attorney Alan Price points out in a good column on the matter, is that Commerce’s decision cannot be appealed.

U.S. Steel posted significantly lower second-quarter profits on falling prices and start-up costs at its Big River Steel (BRS) campus in Osceola, Ark.

Cleveland-Cliffs said on Wednesday that it would seek at least $700 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said it made the move "due to ongoing market developments." The company said the increase was effective immediately for HR orders for September.

What a difference a week makes! SMU has shifted its sheet momentum indicators from “lower” to “neutral”. And we’ll be on the lookout for evidence of higher prices in the weeks ahead.

Nearly 1,200 people have registered for SMU Steel Summit, which is less than a month away now. That means we’re still on pace to meet or exceed last year’s record attendance despite a tough flat-rolled steel market over the last few months. So, a big thank you to everyone who already plans to go for your continued support. If you haven’t booked travel yet, don’t miss out on one of the greatest shows in steel – register here. (You can also check out the latest agenda here.)

Cleveland-Cliffs announced on Friday that it would seek $670 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. The steelmaker said the move was effectively immediately. It coincides with the opening of the company’s HR order book for September.

SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.

SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.

Nucor recording lower second quarter earnings on falling steel prices. And the Charlotte, N.C.-based predicted that profits would be lower still in the third quarter, primarily because of weaker results from its steel mills divisions.

Nucor kept its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil unchanged at $650 per short ton (st) this week. HR prices for CSI, the company's sheet subsidiary in California, held steady at $720/st. Note that sheet prices on the West Coast are typically higher than those east of the Rocky Mountains.

Reibus International Inc. CEO and Chairman Jared Rowe will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar.

I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!