The Canadian housing market is in for an “exceptionally healthy” year in 2014 according to a forecast by real estate leader Re/Max, yet concerns of a “housing bubble” continue to surface. A surging housing market and high consumer debt has been aided by low interest rates intended to spur economic recovery. Canadian household debt is […]
The other day Steel Market Update wrote an article about steel buyers anticipating a flat rolled steel price increase announcement out of the domestic mills prior to the end of the year. Not everyone is a believer that will occur and we got several emails and phone calls pointing out short lead times at a […]
Commerce Department data through October 2013. Focus on private construction. The Commerce Department compiles their information based on the source of financing. These categories are, private, state + local and federal. There are a huge number of sub categories in the private and state + local construction expenditure categories, not so many in federal where […]
Net job creation in November 2013 was 203,000 of which 159,000 were service providing and 44,000 were goods producing. This was the best goods producing result since February this year. Since February 2010, manufacturing has added 554,000 jobs and construction 329,000. In November the private sector added 196,000 jobs and government added 7,000. Of the […]
Each month Steel market Update publishes a table of 38 indicators that we believe captures the essence of the steel market and its drivers. Six of these indicators deal with construction which we believe consumes about 22 percent of all steel products in the US at present. Table 1 shows the construction section of the […]
New residential sales in October soared 25.4 percent above the revised September rate of 354,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 444,000. In comparison, the October 2012 annual estimate was 365,000, a 21.6 percent increase year-over-year. The surge beat economist expectations ranging from 425,000 to 429,000 sales for the period. The median sales price […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index business conditions held steady for New York manufacturers in October. The general business index fell 5 points to 1.5 but remained in growth status. The new orders index rose 5 points while shipping fell 3 points, suggesting modest increases for both indexes for the month. New York manufacturers continued to […]
Negotiations on 2014 flat rolled steel contracts are heating up. Sources are advising Steel Market Update that there has been some movement in the negotiation process by the domestic mills which has allowed a number of the mills to close some 2014 business. We are also hearing from multiple sources of a move by buyers […]
ArcelorMittal (AM) and their 50/50 joint venture partner Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation (NSSMC) reached an agreement with ThyssenKrupp AG to acquire the ThyssenKrupp Steel USA steel mill located in Calvert, Alabama. The purchase was valued at $1.55 billion for the 4.3 million tons of flat rolling capacity along with 1 million tons of […]
The anticipation over the fate of ThyssenKrupp Steel Americas is finally over with the sale of the Calvert, Alabama mill to joint venture partners ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Corporation. The $1.55 billion sale gives ArcelorMittal a firm foothold in the Southeast and in the NAFTA auto market. Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal […]
The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 11.2 percent year-over-year for its highest level since 2006, according to data compiled through September 2013. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the third quarter index rose 3.2 percent. The index is based on the annual returns of 10-City and 20-City Composites. Twelve of the 20 cities posted […]
The total number of Key Market Indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on November 21st the same as on October 31st but there were two changes. We changed the situation of demand for commercial and industrial bank loans from green […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel products continue to be optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment, however at lower levels than what we had been seeing over the past few months. The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured this week at +33 down […]
Existing home sales fell in October but low inventory continues to drive home prices upward said the National Association of Realtors in their November report. Existing housing inventory stood at 2.13 million homes at the end of October—a drop of 1.8 percent from last month. Home sales fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual […]
After three months of increases, the Architecture Billing Index dropped to 51.6 in October from 54.3 in September, indicating a slower pace of growth for construction design activity. The new project inquiry index, an indicator for future demand, rose to 61.5 from 58.6 last month. Calculated on a three month moving average, the regional averages […]
Both industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 99.98 for October, down by 0.14 from September. This index is based on the July 2007 level being defined as 100. The three month moving average, (3MMA) accelerated to a […]
Negotiations on 2014 flat rolled steel contracts are heating up. Sources are advising Steel Market Update that there has been some movement in the negotiation process by the domestic mills which has allowed a number of the mills to close some 2014 business. We are also hearing from multiple sources of a move by buyers […]
Severstal NA reported sales volume increased 2.6 percent quarter-over-quarter to 1.2 million tonnes in the third quarter due to improved sales of CRC and galvanized products. Revenue was reported at $993 million, up 4.2 percent from $953 million in the second quarter. Higher sales volume and pricing along with lower costs at Severstal Columbus resulted […]
Net job creation in October was 204,000; August and September were revised up by 45,000 and 15,000 respectively. In October 169,000 jobs were created in services and 35,000 in goods producing industries. The private sector added 212,000 jobs as government shed 8,000. Of the goods producing, 19,000 were in manufacturing and 11,000 in construction (Table […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) concluded our early November research on the flat rolled steel market earlier today. One of the areas we queried was if those responding to our questionnaire believe that the domestic mills will raise flat rolled steel prices within the first two weeks of November. With 72 percent of the respondents responding […]
This morning’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 0.7 percent from Q2 and 2.82 percent annualized. GDP in Q3 2013 was 1.65 percent higher than in Q3 2012. This data is the first estimate for the third quarter; revisions have often been substantial recently. The following […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of 73 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey preamble was as follows. “The October 2013 […]
Latin American steel mill Ternium reported net sales of 2.14 billion on shipments of 2.3 million tons of steel and 930 thousand tons of iron ore. Steel shipments were up 4 percent from second quarter and 2 percent from third quarter 2012. Iron ore shipments were down 24 percent from second quarter but up 106 […]
The Department of Commerce economic data is running late and in the case of CPIP the September data will be released along with October on December 2nd. We now have August data released almost a month late. Normally, this would be a Premium Level analysis only. Since the reports are running behind we decided to […]
Goldman Sachs steel analysts, in a letter to their clients seen by Steel Market Update, upgraded the steel sector as they feel, “…we see the sector heading to a sustainable recovery over the coming years…” They went on to tell their clients, “The supply-demand fundamentals for steel are starting to look more appealing, particularly for […]
Nucor Steel has filed an objection to the air quality permit issued to Big River Steel in an effort to block construction of the $1.1 billion mill. The challenge to the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality decision will push back the ground breaking for the new steel mill to the first quarter of 2014. Big […]
Review of Manufacturing. October 31st 2013 Each month the Steel Market Update publishes a table of what we believe to be the most significant indicators of the state of the steel market and current results in the long and flat rolled sectors. We will be discussing one section of this table in detail each month, […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index indicated steady business conditions for New York manufacturers in October. The general business index fell 5 points to 1.5 but remained in growth status. The new orders index rose 5 points while shipping fell 3 points, suggesting modest increases for both indexes for the month. The prices paid index remained […]
The combination of higher spot prices for flat rolled steel and adjustments to contract negotiations has caused some steel buyers to seek alternatives to their normal domestic source of supply. Steel Market Update is beginning to get confirmations from both manufacturing companies and service centers of larger foreign tonnage purchases being made for 1st and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on October 31st and thirteen were negative; […]