By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Despite some slightly better-than-expected data for Q3, we have further revised down our forecast for 2023. We continue to believe that stubbornly high inflation, the energy crisis, and China’s domestic problems will lead to a sharp slowdown in world growth, with outright recessions in […]
The Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum Just over a year ago, on Oct. 3, 2021, the EU and the US signed an agreement to negotiate on carbon intensity and global overcapacity in both steel and aluminum. This lofty goal seemed to have been trumped by the agreement that the US suspended Section 232 […]
Foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports offer little to no cost advantage over domestic steel at this time, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, HRC imported from Germany and Italy are theoretically more expensive than domestic steel, and Far East Asian HRC offers just a […]
With September’s quarter close comes the wave of corporate analysts’ reports. Several were released this week, and all warn of challenging times ahead. Demand and prices are falling, as costs are rising, leaving the aluminum value chain scissored in the near term. As context for these results, CRU has refreshed June’s base economic forecast and […]
US sheet prices continue to slide, and the weakness in the domestic market has buyers confident that they can get domestic suppliers to negotiate. For hot-rolled coil, imports have not been very advantageous relative to futures. There have been some workable offers for tandem mill products. But buyers have been more inclined to buy domestically or […]
This week, foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers little to no cost advantage over domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. Foreign prices now hold a theoretical discount of 0–1% over domestic steel, after adjusting foreign prices for estimated freight costs, trader margins, and tariffs. This relationship has teetered back and forth lately, with […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices took split paths between eastern and western regions. Prices in Asia found support from restocking in China and supply disruptions in South Korea. Meanwhile, western markets remained weak, and we expect this to persist over the near term. October is the […]
By CRU Senior Analyst, Puneet Paliwal, from CRU’s Scrap, DRI/HBI & Pig Iron Monitor Global scrap prices stay subdued while those of ore-based metallics have found some support. Overall metallics demand continues to be hampered by the steel market weakness, a trend which may sustain through the short term, particularly in Europe. The CRU metallics price […]
News that the Biden Administration is considering a total ban on Russian aluminum imports lifted the market Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 11. The LME aluminum three-month price increased sharply to a high of $2,400 per ton before some of the gains were reversed by the close. The price saw some volatile shifts during the week but […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received […]
The price advantaged once offered by foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) over domestic steel is gone, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price analysis. Foreign prices are now higher than domestic prices after adjusting for freight costs, trader margins, and tariffs. Domestic HRC is priced as much as 2% below current foreign prices. The gap between US and foreign […]
We’ve spilled a lot of ink over labor contract talks between US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. That issue is no doubt important. But here are two more that are just as important, if not more so. And you should have both on your radar as you start this week. First is the […]
Ingram Marine Group, the largest US barge operator, on Oct. 6 declared force majeure in a letter to customers. The company said low water levels had made it impossible to make timely deliveries. Vessels have run aground near Memphis, Tenn., and there is a logjam of more than 122 vessels/barges near Stack Island, Miss., impeding […]
By CRU Research Analyst Yusu Mao, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Turkish scrap prices rebounded on a fresh deal last week, for the first time since the beginning of September. Our assessment for HMS 1/2 80:20 rose to $365 per ton CFR, up by $21 per ton week-on-week (WoW) but down by $31 per ton […]
Sheet pricing continues to grind lower and contract negotiations drag on. Let’s first look at why prices have been slipping and think about a few theories as to who or what the culprit might be. Spot Market Dynamics I’ve heard from buyers in the Midwest that discounts for large-volume orders negotiated by an integrated producer […]
The temptation to purchase foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) at a bargain has all but faded again, with adjusted foreign prices now offering little or no advantage over domestic steel, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, foreign HRC prices for two of the three regions […]
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has launched a discussion paper on whether to delist Russian primary aluminum from its contract. A discussion paper is like what we do in the US when we ask for public comment on an issue. This decision to ask for market commentary is a 180-degree change of direction from what […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook September has reminded us how risky the current global environment is. Stubbornly high inflation, rapidly tightening monetary policy, tight energy markets, and a surging dollar are taking their toll on growth. And the more bad news keeps materializing. In eastern Europe, Russia’s partial mobilization […]
Our most recent lead time data is flashing a clear warning signal when it comes to plate prices, and so too are plate prices abroad – which in theory offer massive discounts to domestic numbers. Let’s start with plate lead times, which we released today along with lead time figures for sheet products. Plate lead […]
The appeal to import foreign hot-rolled coil (HRC) in place of purchasing domestic steel remains low to non-existent, but that may be changing, according to our latest foreign versus domestic price analysis. Foreign prices were flat to down as much as $40 per net ton this week, while domestic prices increased $5 per ton. Foreign […]
By CRU Research Analyst Aaron Kearney-Keaveny, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 2.2% month-on-month (MoM) to 312.3, following four continuous months of decline since May 2022. This MoM rise in the CRUmpi was specifically driven by a sharp rebound in Asian scrap prices while European prices stabilized. […]
Aluminum May Be Approaching the End of Its Long Destocking Cycle Last week, I described our premise about demand versus real consumption. We talked about the market’s natural tendency to destock when prices take a beating as they have during most of 2022. The latest Index of Orders from the Aluminum Association offers some early […]
Foreign steel imports from two of the three regions tracked by Steel Market Update no longer have a price advantage over domestic steel. US HRC prices are potentially 5% cheaper than imported steel from the two regions, according to our latest foreign versus domestic hot-rolled steel price analysis. Foreign HRC prices for just one region […]
By CRU Senior China Economist Henry Hao, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook and China Macro Monthly China’s economy showed resilience in August, with growth in industrial production, investment, and retail sales shoring up the recovery from the effects of Covid lockdowns and heatwaves. The worsening property slump, however, continues to drag on the economy and threaten the […]
Long liquidation as opposed to short selling? I spoke this week at two diverse industry groups: the Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) and the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). While differing in their sector concentration, the audiences had the same questions: • What’s going on with the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price? • Why […]
By CRU Research Analyst Rosy Finlayson, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor European scrap prices remained relatively unchanged month-on-month (MoM) in September. Buying activity has been slow after the summer holidays despite this being the normal restocking period. Finished steel mills are reportedly sufficiently stocked at present. Scrap prices in Europe now range between €300 […]
Foreign steel imports from two of the three regions tracked by Steel Market Update have lost their price advantage over domestic steel, according to our latest foreign versus domestic hot-rolled steel price analysis. After taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration, foreign HRC prices for just one region remain cheaper than domestic steel […]
Natural gas inspired staggering energy prices crush primary aluminum economics The suspension of gas deliveries through the Nord Stream pipeline has further aggravated an already grim energy situation for European aluminum producers. Prices for day-ahead power in Western Europe are stunning in their magnitude: 404 euros/megawatt hour were published on Friday for Germany, France, the […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The rise in inflation has been a major headwind for the global economy. It has squeezed household incomes and led to a tightening of monetary policy across dozens of countries. Although the price environment in Europe remains red hot, there are tentative signs that […]