Hot Rolled Futures: HRC Loses Battle With Upper $700s

Editor’s note: SMU Contributor Michael D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for two years. In his role, Mike performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Prior to joining Marex, Mike received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton University. Mike can be reached at mdangelo@marex.com for comments/questions.

The CME futures curve continues to take a beating after spot assessments fell well below $800 per ton — a floor that mills were battling to hold for a while. CRU’s weekly HRC index came in at $760 on Oct. 12, down $9 (-1.17%) from the previous week and now sitting at the lowest level since October 2020, which caused Q4 ’22 and Q1 ’23 to sell off even more (see Dec. at $700 now). The Nov ’22 contract traded as low as $680, down $90 (~12%) from last Monday’s high!

Michael D'Angelo

Mike D’Angelo is a researcher and trader at Marex who has been active in the metals markets for 2 years. In his role, D’Angelo performs fundamental and quantitative analysis which directly leads to actionable trading/risk management strategies across the base, precious and ferrous metals derivative spaces. Before joining Marex, he received a BA in economics with a minor in finance from Princeton University. Mike can be reached at mdangelo@marex.com for comments/questions.