Tag: CRU

The LME three-month price continued to strengthen through Friday, March 8, defending its position close to its five-week high and rising further to $2,262 per metric ton (mt), up 0.3%, on the day. Gains were also noted over the last week in other industrial metals, including copper, zinc, and lead. The price gains appeared to be due to weakness in the US dollar, which fell sharply against a basket of currencies after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts were still expected this year.

A weak start for sheet demand this year has continued to weigh on global prices. European demand outside of the renewable energy sector was weak enough that market participants said mills are likely to cut output further after several furnace restarts earlier in the year. In China, demand has also failed to pick up after recent holidays, and even government announcements of more stimulus measures during the country’s “Two Sessions” meetings failed to boost market confidence.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is now just about 5% more expensive than offshore hot band. The premium domestic product had over imports for roughly five months is all but gone, and nearing parity.

Turkish scrap import prices consistently declined over the past month due to persistently weak domestic demand and lower prices in main supplier markets in recent weeks.

The strong resilience of iron ore prices has come to an end with the weak steel performance worldwide and significantly improved iron ore availability in China.

IAI reports aluminum industry greenhouse gas emissions declined in 2022.

I want to give a big shoutout to the good folks at the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) for inviting me to their annual conference this week in Clearwater, Fla. I also want to give a special thanks to the FMA for awarding SMU founder John Packard with a lifetime achievement award – on that also gave me a chance to catch up with my old boss in person.

The March scrap trade is set to pick up steam next week.

The premium US hot-rolled coil (HRC) held over offshore product for roughly five months has nearly vanished. Domestic hot band prices continue to run downhill at a high rate, erasing a $300/st gap they had over imported HRC just two months ago.

Foreign cold-rolled coil (CR) remains much less expensive than domestic product even as prices in the US have declined at a rapid pace over the past month, according to SMU’s latest check of the market.

Falling US sheet prices have reduced the attractiveness of hot-rolled (HR) coil imports as domestic mills price competitively to secure limited business. However, tightness in the CR coil market has extended delivery to June or July in some cases, and buyers may consider to import given competitive prices and arrival times.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has voiced the United States’ unease at a marked increase in steel and aluminum imports from Mexico, and what she termed a lack of transparency about Mexican imports of the metals from third countries.

In the period between mid-February and mid-March, CRU forecasts global demand for steelmaking raw materials to change little from the previous month,but buying activity will improve towards the end of next month

The premium US hot-rolled coil (HRC) held over offshore product is disappearing in a hurry. Domestic hot band prices continue to fall at a fast clip, erasing a nearly $300/st gap they had over imported HRC just two months ago. All told, US HRC prices are now 8.8% more expensive than imports. The premium is […]

The Italian government says it will appoint commissioners with specific steel-sector expertise in the coming days to assume control of the Taranto works, which is majority owned by ArcelorMittal.

The CRUmpi declined by 1.7% month over month (m/m) to 325.2 in February, compared to a 4.3% m/m increase in February 2023.

The LME 3-month price was broadly stable again on the morning of Feb. 16, and was last seen trading at $2,230 per metric ton (mt). On Feb. 16, LME stocks were reported at 534,925 mt, an increase of nearly 10,000 mt from last Friday. The change comes after 15,125 mt of metal was delivered into […]

The scrap export market has demonstrated resiliency so far this year from the US East Coast. This strength has mainly come from the Turkish market. Despite weakening orders for rebar in their domestic market, imported scrap prices have held up until the last several days. The US West Coast is not as active, but there are orders in South Asia and in South America that are keeping things afloat.

It’s no secret that HRC futures have been particularly volatile over the past several years. The most recent instance was the outsized break in the March futures contract early this week. For companies procuring raw material in anticipation of higher prices or even to get ahead on future purchase orders from customers, understanding the relative price of that raw material versus the hot-rolled coil futures curve is important.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices moved lower again this week, remaining largely on a downtrend since mid-January. The result has caused domestic tags to lessen their price premium over imported products week on week (w/w).

The iron ore market has been largely calm, with China observing the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday period, while demand in Europe and JKT has been slow to pick up. Supply has been somewhat weaker, but overall, the price has held steady. Supply from Port Hedland remained unchanged w/w despite Roy Hill having no shipments […]

US busheling scrap prices fell this month, while HMS and shredded grades remained largely unchanged.

South Korean integrated steelmaker Posco has started building a 2.5-million-metric-ton-per-year (Mt/y) electric-arc furnace (EAF) at its Gwangyang works, a key stage in the company’s transition to becoming a green steel producer.

The US Midwest premium continued to trade between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) this week. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.

US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were again lower this week, pushing the price premium domestic hot band carries over imported products lower vs. the prior week.

Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research at Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat. The chat will be on Wednesday, Feb. 7, at 11 a.m. ET. You can join the ~600 people who have already registered here.

Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research at Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat on Feb. 7.

The US Midwest premium was flat week over week (w/w) at 18.8–19.4¢/lb. Again, the premium has exhibited remarkably low levels of volatility and has yet to react to news in the geopolitical or macroeconomic spaces.

Three of Japan’s major banks have agreed to lend Nippon Steel a combined $16 billion for its $14.1-billion planned acquisition of United States Steel, provided the acquisition is completed, the Japanese steelmaker said.

Much has happened since we last met on Jan. 4. Cleveland-Cliffs announced a price increase on Jan. 3, lifting the futures market in the morning only for it to finish the day $20-$30 per short ton (st) below those morning highs. On Jan. 4, the futures curve was down another $10-$28/st. And in my column for SMU that evening, I asked a question: Would those aggressive sellers be met with a short-squeeze forcing them to cover, or had the market peaked with the negative price action to start the year the proverbial canary in the coal mine?