Global trade protectionism and political uncertainty weighed heavily on manufacturing in October. Manufacturing slowed to its lowest level in almost two years, according to the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The headline index registered 52.1, down from 52.2 in September. Weaker increases in new business and a contraction of new export orders muted production growth during […]
Manufacturing activity continues to be strong, according to the latest ISM Report on Business, although slowing its pace of growth as it enters the fourth quarter. The October PMI declined 2.1 percentage points from September to register 57.7 percent. Most of the components of the PMI are trending at a slower rate. The new orders […]
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 4.2 percent. The growth in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, government spending and business investment. These […]
The following article was contributed by CRU North America Steel Analyst Ryan McKinley The trade dispute between the United States and Canada has caused inventories to build and put downward pressure on prices. The 25 percent duties on steel imports in place by Canada and the U.S. against one another is eroding profits and driving […]
Section 232 tariffs are coming under fire by representatives of Mexico and Canada, who say there will be no signing of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade in North America until the tariffs are lifted. “We need to solve that issue before the signing takes place,” said Juan Carlos Baker, Mexico undersecretary for foreign […]
Trade measures by the U.S. are causing concern for the European steel market, according to a new report by the European Union steel association EUROFER. Steel imports are growing faster than domestic shipments by EU mills, according to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2018-2019. “Growth is stabilizing in EU steel markets, in line with […]
United Steelworkers in Canada are rejecting any plan by the U.S. to impose quotas on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. “Canada’s government must emphatically stand up for the Canadian steel and aluminum industries and thousands of families whose livelihoods are at stake,” said USW National Director Ken Neumann. “There is no justification for Canada to […]
Apparent steel supply remained high in August, coming in at 9,828,339 net tons, according to government data released late last week. This is the third highest level of the year, just a hair under the April figure (9,829,298 tons), and both being about 100,000 tons under the March high (9,935,479 tons). Apparent steel supply is […]
U.S. steel exports in August totaled 646,692 net tons (586,670 metric tons), down 1.4 percent over July and down 29.5 percent from August 2017. Surpassing July’s low, this is now the lowest total export figure seen since May 2009 when 627,968 tons were shipped out of the country. Prior to July and August levels, total […]
Retaliatory tariffs are taking aim at those sectors that have been the strongest supporters of President Trump. An analysis of data by the Brookings Institution reports that 6.1 percent of U.S. exports, or $121 billion worth of goods, are now subject to tariffs by China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration has […]
Rolled product imports into the United States were down by 21.6 percent in September on a three-month moving average basis compared with the prior year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of import license data. Figure 1 shows the tonnage of total rolled steel and semi-finished imports through September on a 3MMA basis. The […]
After months of contentious bargaining, the U.S. has reached a new trilateral trade agreement with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA. In last minute negotiations, Canada agreed to give the U.S. increased dairy market access while retaining the Chapter 19 trade remedy dispute settlement. The new treaty, to be called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), will […]
The renegotiated NAFTA, now called USMCA (the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement), still needs to be ratified in Mexico, the United States and Canada, but it is generating a plethora of commentary, both supportive and cautious. The new deal reached late Sunday “provides certainty to financial markets and supports investment and job creation in our country,” said incoming […]
The slowdown for global manufacturing continued in September, according to the latest J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The headline PMI fell to a 22-month low at 52.2, down from 52.6 in August. The PMI has been above the 50.0 neutral mark since March 2016, but has declined in each of the past five months. Output […]
Despite moderating prices, the outlook for the U.S. steel market is generally favorable for 2019, reported Josh Spoores, CRU Principal Analyst for North America, during a CRU Webinar on Friday. The Trump administration’s Section 232 steel tariff has limited competition from steel imports this year. Steel sheet arrivals into the U.S. are down 12 percent […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this new role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategy for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a Trader at Cargill spending time in Metal […]
Lewis Leibowitz, trade attorney and contributor to Steel Market Update, offers the following commentary on the latest developments in Washington: According to Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative, “we are sort of out of time” to negotiate including Canada in a revised NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement). There are a few sticking points […]
Ferrous scrap prices have been on the decline, but may find a bottom in October, as most Steel Market Update sources forecast flat to slightly higher pricing next month. CRU Steel Analyst Ryan McKinley reports that sentiment seems to be building for a “strong sideways” market in October. “If this play’s out, it will be […]
Global economic expansion may have reached its peak as trade tensions pressure markets, says a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. OECD is projecting global GDP growth will settle at 3.7 percent in 2018 in its Interim Economic Outlook. “Amidst rising trade tensions and heightened trade policy uncertainty, global trade growth […]
Major leading economic indicators are all telling the same story—that U.S. economic growth is slowing, with little effect likely from the Trump administration tax cut, reported economist Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics in his remarks Aug. 29 at the Steel Market Update steel summit in Atlanta. While an average GDP growth of 2.6 percent in […]
U.S. steel exports in July totaled 655,937 net tons (595,057 metric tons), down 28.2 percent over June and down 18.7 percent from July 2017. This is the lowest total export figure seen since May 2009 when 627,968 tons were shipped out of the country. Prior to July, total exports had averaged around 875,000 tons the […]
Ferrous scrap prices in most regions have settled down by $20 to $30 per ton in September and could fall further in October as mills schedule maintenance outages, report some Steel Market Update sources. Others believe stronger export demand could help sustain prices next month. Prime grades declined by $20, while obsoletes dipped a bit […]
Are the Section 232 tariffs affecting the volume of steel imports? We will look at this several different ways, as the answer depends on what time frame is chosen for comparison. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Aug. 10 that since the imposition of Section 232 tariffs in March, imports to the U.S. have declined […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index reached a 14 year high as new orders, production and employment made strong gains in August. The Index issued by the Institute for Supply Management, jumped 3.2 points to a reading of 61.3, far exceeding the consensus for a posting of 57.6. New orders increased 4.9 points to 65.1, production 4.8 […]
Global manufacturing was subdued in August said J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was at a 21 month low of 52.5 in August, down 0.3 points from July. “August PMI data signaled a slight firming in global manufacturing output growth to a solid pace at near three percent annualized,” said […]
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been erratic in the last four months with two brief spikes above $70 per barrel. The oil price was $66.50 on Aug. 20. The total number of operating rigs exploring for oil and gas was up by 11.7 percent year over year and increased by nine […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2018, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July totaled 89,960,000 metric tons, an increase of 8.1 percent from the previous month, and an increase of 4.3 percent from […]
A group representing the United States’ leading auto manufacturers, parts suppliers, auto dealers, parts distributors, retailers and vehicle service providers have formed the Driving American Jobs Coalition to oppose potential new Trump administration tariffs on imports of autos and auto parts. The coalition argues that imposing new auto tariffs will cause “massive job losses and […]
Editor’s note: The following was contributed by analysts at the CRU Group. The Turkish-U.S. political relationship has soured sharply in the past week. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted relations were “not so good” on Friday, Aug. 10, and doubled tariffs on U.S. imports of Turkish steel. Turkish President Erdogan responded with anger, suggesting the country […]
CRU zinc analyst Helen O’Cleary reported late last week on what was causing the short-term movement of zinc pricing: “Zinc’s price has been pressured lower again in recent days on a combination of risk-averse investor sentiment, U.S. dollar strength and a sizeable delivery of warrants into the LME’s New Orleans warehouses. It breached support at […]