The Broad Index value of the US $ has been gradually strengthening for 18 months (Figure 1), which favors imports to the US and depresses exports. See explanation at the end of this piece. Table 1 shows the number of currency units that it takes to buy one US $ and the percent change in […]
Last week was a busy week with scrap prices for May coming into focus, our beginning of May flat rolled steel survey having been completed and getting more information about the possible sale of the Severstal NA assets made for an interesting week. On top of that SMU conducted one of our Steel 101 workshops. […]
More than 200 Ohio steel workers and supporters gathered at a rally outside US Steel Lorain Tubular Operations on May 5 to urge the federal government to protect the Northeast Ohio steel industry from unfair foreign competition. “Northeast Ohio’s steelmakers and workers can compete against anyone in the world—when given access to a level playing […]
When Nucor announced their earnings on April 24th they held a conference call with analysts to discuss their business and to make statements about their company, the markets they serve and about the economy in general. John Ferriola, Nucor’s Chairman, CEO and President, provided an opening statement during which he made the following remarks regarding […]
April turned out to be a month where supply disruptions squeezed the life out of non-repentant steel buyers: flat rolled steel buyers who had run their inventories too lean or who hesitated when U.S. Steel Great Lakes went down, only to be ambushed by steelmaking curtailments at USS Gary Works (and elsewhere) due to iron […]
Based on revised domestic and world export pricing on hot rolled coil (SteelBenchmarker), the price spread between the two continues to grow. As you can see by the graphic shown below, the spread has been widening ever since domestic steel production issues began impacting flat rolled steel pricing in the U.S. and Canada. The spread […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of real GDP today, (April 30th) for Q1 2014. GDP rose in the fourth quarter by 2.6 percent but declined to 0.1 percent in the first estimate for Q1 2014. Figure 1 shows quarterly results since 1990 with the IMF forecast through 2018. The Q1 […]
Each week during the month Steel Market Update (SMU) checks the license data from the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding imports of foreign steel. Based on the data compiled each week we then project where we think imports will end up at the end of the month. April license data is suggesting we could see […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their April report on May 1st. The April PMI registered 54.9 percent up from 53.7 percent in March. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the eleventh straight month for which this was the case. The three month moving average (3MMA), which had declined for the last three […]
Steel Market Update continuously is in conversation with flat rolled steel buyers from around the country. We have noticed a growing nervousness within the steel community as the buyers grapple with ever higher steel prices and extended lead times. In some cases the lead times on foreign material are not much more than what the […]
Each week during the month Steel Market Update (SMU) checks the license data from the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding imports of foreign steel. Based on the data compiled each week we then project where we think imports will end up at the end of the month. April license data is suggesting we could see […]
One of the products which is provided to our Premium Level members only is our Key Market Indicators. Our KMI analysis is showing an improving (more positives than negatives) situation, especially in the flat rolled steel markets. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers […]
Nucor announced consolidated net earnings of $111 million for first quarter 2014, up from $84.8 million a year ago but down from $170.5 million in the previous quarter. Net sales were up 12 percent to $5.11 billion year over year and 4 percent from fourth quarter 2013. Tons shipped to outside customers increased 8 percent […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released preliminary steel import census data for March and reported total steel imports at 3,218,914 net tons (NT). Compared to February, March imports are down by 2.0 percent or 66,960 NT. Compared to the same month one year ago, total March 2014 imports are up 25.2 percent or 648,510 NT. […]
Reliance Steel & Aluminum, the largest metals service center in the United States, announced earnings earlier today. The company reported net income of $87.2 on sales totaling $2.09 billion. Sales included the recent acquisitions of Metals USA and Haskins Steel. The company reported an 8.4 percent improvement in same store sales over the same quarter […]
Details on steel trade data out of China were released earlier this week regarding iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore during March were 73,960,000 metric tons (MT), an increase of 20.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 14.6 percent from March […]
Once per month, Steel Market Update provides a flat rolled service center inventory forecast for our Premium Level members. We thought in light of the recent numbers released by the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) to see how our forecast for April compared with the actual figures compiled by the MSCI. As indicated in our […]
AK Steel reported a net loss of $86.1 million in the first quarter of 2014, compared to a net income of $35.2 million in the previous quarter. Net sales for Q1 were $1.38 billion on steel shipments of 1,262,100 tons, compared to Q1 2013 net sales of $1.37 billion on shipments of 1,289,800 tons, and […]
Foreign steel imports, for the month of April 2014 are projected by Steel Market Update to exceed 3.5 million net tons. Based on preliminary license data collected by the U.S. Department of Commerce through April 22, 2014 imports could reach as high as 3.7 million net tons. However, as our regular readers already know, license […]
The spread between the world hot rolled export price and the SMU USA HR price has widened since our last update by $39 per net ton (NT). The current spread is at the highest level since our data history began at the start of 2012. Based on the latest SteelBenchmarker price report, the world HR […]
The hot rolled futures market over the past week has consolidated gains on the nearby months. May and June have traded to a high of $685 and $680, reflecting optimism in continued short term strength in the physical market. The back end of the curve is not experiencing as strong buying interest, as the Q3 […]
All of the current production issues are relegated to the northern fully integrated steel mills. One of our service center contacts laid out the production scenario and how it is impacting the other northern steel producers: “The Great Lakes outage, and then accident during repair, and the Gary reduction in output is the important factor […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released license data through Tuesday, April 15th for imported steel scheduled to arrive into the United States during the month of April. Based on this early license data (knowing it can be misleading) we are projecting total steel imports will exceed the 3.5 million net tons forecast for March. Our […]
The Broad Index value of the US Dollar has been gradually increasing for 18 months (Figure 1) which tends of raise imports to the US and depress exports. The broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. Dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading […]
The following article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our instructor for our Managing Price Risk and Managing Price Risk 2: Strategies & Execution workshops. Financial Markets: Well we are a fairly precarious point in the S+P 500 and DOW. You might recall that we were headed to 1900 to test […]
Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave their quarterly global steel outlook on April 8. BofAML predicts demand for finished steel in China will grow 4.4 percent in 2014. Chinese crude steel production is expected to increase 4.6 to 815 million tons. The outlook is for a trend of slowing but positive growth. Despite mill closings […]
To our Premium Level members – just a quick note to let you know that we publish Premium articles to the front of the website prior to sending them out in a supplemental newsletter. We have been waiting for imports by product, port and country to become available before we send out a supplemental issue. […]
“Mills are stubborn this week. We’ll see what happens when US gets caught back up,” is how one steel executive pegged the market for Steel Market Update earlier today. Many of the steel service centers we spoke to over the past few days are indicating there is strengthening demand in portions of their business. What […]
Apparent steel supply for February was 9,002,702 net tons, an 8.5 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is due to an increase in finished imports and domestic shipments but a decrease in total US exports. The net trade balance between imports and exports was a surplus of 2,381,742 net tons […]
The following is a report which is normally provided to only our Premium Level members. It is a detailed analysis of flat rolled, long products and semi-finished imports through the month of March 2014. Written by Peter Wright, we analyze how accurate license data is and provide a table using three month moving averages to […]