By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary August ended on a bearish note as weak economic data from the USA signaled that the U.S. economy had slipped into contraction territory and European manufacturing data confirmed ongoing contraction. These data, coupled with ongoing rmb weakness, heightened concerns over metal demand going forward and helped push zinc’s price to […]
Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. Construction expenditures are showing signs of softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 11 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last month and against eight in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]
By CRU Analyst Ryan McKinley Domestic scrap prices in the U.S. fell by $30-40 /l.ton in September depending on region and grade—by about $20 /l.ton lower than was generally expected by the market. The steeper-than-expected decline was caused by a confluence of factors including ample supply, mill outages and a weakening export market. Obsolete prices were […]
John Packard is on vacation… Mill executives have been quick to deflect criticism of their plans to spend billions on mill modernizations and upgrades, arguing that the market will be able to absorb the new capacity–but most steel buyers aren’t buying it. Three out of four respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Total rolled product imports in August were down by 11.8 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis year over year. This follows the 15.3 percent decline in July on the same basis. This early look at August’s import volume is based on Commerce Department license data (see explanation below.) This import analysis includes all […]
This analysis breaks down the imported tonnage of six flat rolled products into the district of entry and the source nation. We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about local import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis is to describe in detail what is going on in a […]
Do plans by U.S. mills to add millions of tons of new steelmaking capacity over the next few years make a price-killing supply glut inevitable? That’s a question very much open to debate, as shown by the spirited exchange between three leading analysts during Steel Market Update’s Steel Summit Aug. 28 in Atlanta. Despite some […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg Part two of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? After a remarkably profitable 2018, the U.S. steel industry has suffered a setback in 2019 as steel prices have dropped sharply on weaker than expected demand. Steel margins have turned negative and production cuts have been […]
So far, China has held its own in the prolonged trade war with the U.S., but August saw an unexpected decline in exports. China’s exports fell 1.0 percent in August after gaining 3.3 percent in July. Imports declined 5.6 percent, resulting in an overall trade surplus of $34.84 billion, said China’s General Administration of Customs. […]
U.S. steel imports are trending well below average in September, based on Commerce Department license data. Extrapolating the current rate of import licenses out through the end of the month shows total imports on track to hit about 1.8 million tons–significantly below the 2.4 million ton average for the past three months and the 2.6 […]
By CRU North America Analyst Ryan McKinley U.S. long product price declines were limited for most products in September after finding support from the scrap market, but downward pressure continues to mount. Even with scrap prices rising by $20 /l.ton in August, persistent price falls throughout the year have yet to spur buyers’ interest amid high […]
Steel Market Update is making adjustments to our Price Momentum Indicators on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The pressure behind rising steel prices seems to be subsiding as lead times at most mills are reasonable (especially considering the maintenance schedules in place for September and October). Steel buyers are beginning to tell […]
As many of our trading company contacts have been telling SMU, finished steel imports have bottomed at just under 2 million short tons. Total foreign steel imports for the month of August are forecast to be 2.1 million net tons based on license data released on Tuesday of this week. Only 275,954 net tons are […]
On Wednesday, September 4, 2019 the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a Preliminary Antidumping Duty Determinations on fabricated structural steel from Canada, China and Mexico. In the determination Canada was found to be essentially harmless while China and Mexico were found to be dumping fabricated steels into the U.S. markets. SMU normally does not cover […]
The remaining days for AK Steel Ashland Works are numbered. Employees received final notices on Tuesday from AK Steel regarding the permanent shutdown of the Ashland plant scheduled for Dec. 31. The letter from the company sent to about 260 employees states: “As you know on Jan. 28, 2019, AK Steel announced its plans to […]
The effectiveness of the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariff gets mixed reviews. The 25 percent tariff has contributed to a 13 percent reduction in steel imports this year, easing the competitive pressures on domestic mills. But after an initial spike in steel prices last year, and record earnings by the mills, the price of finished […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The last month has been interesting from a forecast standpoint given the reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy stance at the end of July, new developments in the U.S.-China trade war and a shift in currency policy in China. Through all this policy change, we continue to see a […]
As I write my “final thoughts” for Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update, I am in Stuart, Fla., and there is a hurricane located about 80 miles due east in the Bahamas. It is Monday and I expect there will be limited power or mobility come Tuesday, so I am trying to be a […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Manjot Singh China has been at the center of coal price upcycles that have taken place this millennium. The commodity supercycle that characterized the early-2000s was fueled by demand growth, especially in emerging markets like China. That bull market reached a peak in 2011 when slowing demand growth was met with […]
U.S. gross domestic product had positive growth in every region of the country in all four quarters of 2018 and in Q1 2019, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data […]
Demand for long products continues to be very strong, driven by the construction industry. Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import-export data from the U.S. Department of […]
The import market share of all steel products including semifinished has been below 20 percent every month since January. Steel Market Update data goes back to January 2003 in which time period the high import share was 38.8 percent in January 2015. Between January 2014 and February 2019, there were only four months when the […]
The trucking and railroad industry shared a stage on Monday at the SMU Steel Summit. James Burg, president of James Burg Trucking Company, and Jim Schaaf, group vice president of metals and construction at Norfolk Southern, talked about the challenges facing their industries. Trucking Tribulations The trucking industry employs approximately 7.3 million people, 3.9 million […]
The steel industry enjoyed a profitable first half of 2018 due to a strong economy and tariffs on imports that drove up domestic prices. The welcome windfall prompted several companies to commit large investments toward expansion and modernization of their facilities. In all, about 31 million net tons of new steel capacity could potentially come […]
U.S. Steel announced that it will idle its East Chicago Tin facility due to low capacity utilization and consolidate production from three to two facilities. The company hopes to transfer about half of the 297 employees at East Chicago to Gary Works and the Midwest plant. The statement below was sent to employees on Friday. […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: On Friday, China announced new tariffs in response to the Trump administration’s new tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China. Effective Sept. 1, China will impose 5 percent or 10 percent tariffs on more than 5,000 tariff […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: I received several questions about the cases initiated earlier this year covering the ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty investigations of fabricated structural steel (FSS) from Canada, Mexico and China. I thought it might be time to try to […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison and Senior Analyst Erik Hedborg In the past month, we have seen sharp declines in global commodity prices, including steelmaking raw materials. The fall was triggered by an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, but CRU’s research shows that supply and demand fundamentals in the markets also contributed to […]