U.S. steel imports likely totaled around 2.4 million tons in October, near the 12-month average, based on the latest import license data from the Department of Commerce. Imports of semifinished steel approached a million tons as the mills moved to secure slabs in the first month of the fourth quarter. Slab imports, notably from Brazil, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen We expect world GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and next; in other words, we expect global growth to be broadly stable at current rates. The story for world industrial production, instead, is one of a mild recovery from 1.4 percent in 2019 to 2.2 percent in […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
A memo from the Commerce Department Office of the Inspector General suggests that the Section 232 exclusion process may be favoring the companies that file objections to exclusion requests. The watchdog agency found evidence of unofficial communications that may be giving objectors undue influence in tariff decisions. The Bureau of Industry and Security is charged […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The presidential campaign heats up. The impeachment investigations continue. Polarization is in the air. Today, I note a trend that’s pertinent to all this—increasingly, pundits and commentators are discussing the futility of our current polarization. I recommend a […]
Steel imports are down significantly this year, the result of trade actions and economic forces, but the import market share is relatively unchanged. Through the first nine months of 2019, the U.S. imported at total of 22.6 million tons of steel, a 13.7 percent decline from the same period in 2018, reports the American Iron […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
As expected, import licenses for semifinished steel have seen a big jump in October, the first month of the fourth quarter, as domestic mills seek to secure needed slabs ahead of quarterly quota restrictions on imports from Brazil and other nations. Steel Market Update’s forecast of import licenses for the entire month show semifinished imports […]
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months and against eight in the last month. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]
In the third quarter of 2019, the states reported a slowdown in net job creation that paralleled the national statistics. Third-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the employment situation that we reported at the national level two weeks […]
Nucor reported a decline in financial results as expected for the third quarter of 2019. Net earnings were $275 million, down from $386.4 million in Q2 and $676.7 million in Q3 2018. Consolidated net sales fell 7 percent from the previous quarter to $5.46 billion. Steel shipments to outside customers declined 7 percent from last […]
Economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most of the U.S. in September and early October. Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts in the South and West were generally more upbeat than the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity edged lower as firms cited persistent […]
By CRU Analyst Sam Grant Looking at our North American zinc market forecasts for 2020, there are clear arguments for either a rollover or slight decline in contract premia as we head into negotiations during the final quarter of this year. In this article, we present an overview of the North American refined market fundamentals […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain It is imperative for carbon steel producers to have secure supply of metallurgical coke to ensure stable and efficient operation of their blast furnaces (BF). Steelmakers also benefit from using coke with consistent technical specifications, namely CSR and ash content in their BFs. For these reasons alone it is prudent […]
By John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update The Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been a mirror of the comments made by buyers of flat rolled and plate steel over the past few days. Our Sentiment Index, which measures how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to […]
Except for a brief uptick this summer, steel prices have been on the decline since March and breached the $500 per ton level this month—a psychological line in the sand that leaves steel buyers wondering how much further prices can slide. Steel Market Update estimates the average price for hot rolled is now down to […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran U.S. steel sheet prices have fallen faster in early Q4 than initially expected, as lower demand levels, economic uncertainty and another $30-40 /l.ton decrease in scrap prices in October guided steel prices down. The CRU Midwest HR coil price assessment on Oct. 16 was $507 /s.ton, down $64 from […]
By CRU Analysts Chris Bandmann and Alexander Ordosch In response to events in Syria, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. tariffs on Turkish steel imports will be restored to 50 percent, after they had been revised down to 25 percent in May. What are the likely impacts of this decision? Turkish Exports […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill Weak steel markets have continued to drive down scrap prices in many regions. In the key supply markets of Europe and the U.S., mills have taken outages as demand has failed to recover seasonally. Meanwhile in Japan, weak steel demand and high steel inventories have continued to limit steel […]
Tariffs on steel imports from Turkey will be doubled to 50 percent, declared President Trump, in punishment for Turkey’s military offensive on Kurds in northern Syria. The current tariffs imposed under Section 232 will be increased by executive action, said the White House. Trump’s decision last week to withdraw troops from Syria left the U.S.-allied […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch Last week, Turkish scrap import prices increased by $8 /t to $233 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, based on one 40 kt deal from the U.S. Following a number of weeks of sizable deal volumes, the market quietened. This increase comes despite sharp falls in the U.S. domestic market again for October buys. The […]
August apparent steel supply rose to 9,625,558 net tons, the highest level seen since April of this year, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total […]
February was the first month for the import market share of total steel products, including semifinished, to fall below 20 percent since August 2009. The import share remained below 20 percent through August 2019 when it was 18.4 percent. Our data goes back to January 2003 in which time period the high import share was […]
Demand for sheet products spiked to over five million tons in August for the first time since August last year, though flat rolled demand remains tepid. Construction expenditures are softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment […]
Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index declined again this week to its lowest levels since 2013. Both Current and Future Sentiment have been trending steadily downward since April. The Current Sentiment reading of +26 is half the +52 recorded just one month ago and more than 40 points below levels at this time last year. […]
One of the reasons why I enjoy the steel industry is the fact that every day is different. Each customer is unique, every buyer had his/her own personality and way of conducting business. As a salesman, my challenge was understanding and then navigating the motivating factors behind every purchasing decision. The U.S. government has been […]
Preliminary data for the full month of September, based on Commerce Department import licenses, shows that steel imports likely totaled less than 2 million tons last month. This is comparable to the final Census data for August, putting imports for the past two months at well below average. One notable difference in September–estimated finished steel […]
In September, the licensed import volume of rolled steel products was the lowest since February 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the latest Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data. Total rolled product imports in September declined by 15.5 percent year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This follows the […]
JSW USA has filed a challenge to a tariff exclusion denial with the U.S. Court of International Trade. In the first tariff exclusion case to reach the USCIT, JSW claims that Commerce ignored evidence presented regarding the domestic availability of steel slab. The company is requesting a refund of the tariffs it was required to pay. […]