Interesting comments received earlier this week from a steel executive whom I know well, and I respect his opinions. The topic of the day was one that I know drives the steel mills crazy – steel analysts’ price projections. Many of the analysts are calling for prices to peak within the next 60 days (in […]
The latest spread between foreign and domestic steel prices shows an increasing attraction for foreign imports, according to our most recent foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. The price differentials (after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration) between domestic HRC and foreign imports had surged from February to March of […]
As steel prices around the globe surge in response to the war in Ukraine, the brief competitive advantage domestic prices held over foreign steel has flattened, according to SMU’s latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. Select foreign HRC prices are anywhere from $138 per ton cheaper than domestic prices to $74 per ton […]
You’ll have to wait until the fourth quarter if you’re looking for flat rolled from California Steel Industries (CSI). The West Coast slab converter announced that it had closed its September order book on Thursday, July 1 – just a week after it opened the month and increased prices by $200 per ton ($10 per […]
New orders and production picked up in June, while employment contracted, supplier deliveries slowed and backlogs lengthened, said the Institute for Supply Management in its June 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The Manufacturing PMI fell a slight 0.6 percentage point to 60.6 after rising in May and indicates expansion for the overall economy. “Business Survey Committee panelists […]
Steel prices rose even higher through the month of June, now the 10th consecutive month prices have increased. Hot rolled steel prices increased an average of $30 per ton each week, reaching $1,770 per ton in SMU’s latest check of the market. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator has remained unchanged since the August 2020 adjustment […]
Ford plans to idle or reduce production at nearly all its North American assembly plants in July – and in some instances into early August – because of a shortage of chips and other parts. “While we continue to manufacture new vehicles, we’re prioritizing completing our customers’ vehicles that were assembled without certain parts due to […]
Flat rolled steel prices continued to move higher with benchmark hot rolled coil spot prices now up for the 47th week in a row. But when we looked at HRC, we found prices up only by $10 per ton. This is the lowest rate of increase since mid-March/early April, when we saw HRC increase by […]
SSAB Americas President Chuck Schmitt joined SMU for a Community Chat webinar last week during which we talked plate, renewable energy and fossil-free steelmaking. We also got to some good questions from you about the hydrogen-based steelmaking SSAB is undertaking in Sweden through its HYBRIT partnership with iron ore miner LKAB and power producer Vattenfall. […]
Once Produced…Can We Even Get It Shipped? Transportation issues continue to plague the flat-rolled and plate steel markets. It’s bad enough that many steel mills are running one to four weeks late against their original promise date. We are hearing once the steel is produced it can take days to weeks of waiting for a […]
Once Produced…Can We Even Get It Shipped? Transportation issues continue to plague the flat-rolled and plate steel markets. It’s bad enough that many steel mills are running one to four weeks late against their original promise date. We are hearing once the steel is produced it can take days to weeks of waiting for a […]
Let’s talk about lead times. Because the results from our latest survey caught my attention. This is the first time in since January-February that you can maybe discern a potential peak in pricing – at least judging by that metric. Lead Times: Trend or Head Fake I’m going to display our lead latest lead time […]
Let’s talk about flat rolled and plate steel mill lead times. Because the results from our latest steel market survey caught my attention. This is the first time in since January-February that you can maybe discern a potential peak in pricing – at least judging by that metric. Lead Times: Trend or Head Fake I’m […]
The market is watching anxiously for a sign that rising lead times have finally turned and will begin to shorten as mill production catches up with demand. Indeed, Steel Market Update data shows a slight dip in the average lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel products this week. But the same has […]
As it turns out, the slight downturn seen in steel mill lead times last month was not the beginning of a trend change. Lead times for all products but plate have inched higher in the last two weeks, indicating no relief yet from the tight supplies that continue to push steel prices higher. According to […]
If you’re seeking a peak, keep looking. Because it wasn’t this week. Steel Market Update found that spot prices for most sheet and plate products were again higher – despite scattered reports of increased availability for some contract buyers. SMU’s benchmark hot-rolled coil prices stands $1,760 per ton ($88/cwt), up $40 per ton from last […]
Plate prices have seen an astronomical rise, but the big gains have not been enough to keep the spread between sheet and plate from ballooning. And that spread is already the inverse of what is the norm. Normally plate prices carry a premium to sheet prices – now the reverse is true. Sheet carries around a […]
A Whimper or a Bang…? An interesting comment was made by one of the wholesalers on this morning’s HARDI galvanized steel conference call. I am paraphrasing here, but essentially the wholesaler was making the point that even when the mills catch up, the underlying demand is still there. From this executive’s perspective, as long as […]
The next three months will be challenging, said metalforming companies in the June 2021 Precision Metalforming Business Conditions Report. Only 36% of companies expect an improvement in economic activity during the period, down from 41% in May, while 12% anticipate a decline in activity, up from 10% in the previous month. The percentage of respondents […]
By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran U.S. sheet prices are still trending higher, which has supported further gains in raw materials, slabs and imported steel. Even though CRU HR coil prices have increased 7.4% m/m to $1,655 /s.ton on June 16, market contacts still report a lack of workable offers, especially given lead times into […]
The spread between foreign and domestic steel prices has changed direction again since our last update, according to our latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. The price differentials (after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration) between domestic HRC and foreign imports had surged from February to March of this year, reaching record […]
Steel prices will turn lower and quickly fall back in the next 6-12 months, but mill profitability will remain substantial, predicted Principal Analyst Josh Spoores during CRU’s virtual New York Steel Seminar on Wednesday. Steel prices have hit historic highs, with hot rolled offers at more than $1,700 per ton, as demand continues to outstrip supply. […]
Hot-rolled coil prices have broken through the $1,700 per ton ($85 per cwt) threshold and now average $1,720 per ton. That’s up $45 per ton from a week ago and closing in on quadruple a 2020 low – reached last August – of $440 per ton. The latest gains come after Steel Market Update’s sentiment […]
Flat Rolled = 45.3 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 45.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories grew significantly in May as mills caught up on deliveries and intake increased. At the end of May, service centers carried 45.3 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on overall aluminum demand in 2020 was well documented. However, that storyline masked a remarkable rebound in the demand for aluminum beverage cans. Data from the Aluminum Association shows this: • 2020 total domestic shipments of can stock supplied to the can market rose 3.3% […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices in northern Europe, like in other areas of the world, have begun to decline – although prices in the USA have yet to follow this trend. Still, it appears that this upward trend in the U.S. market is nearing an end. […]
U.S. steel product shipments fell by 2.4% in April following an increase of 15.6% in the month prior. The decline, although disappointing, is not surprising because steel product shipments have been irregular from month to month since bottoming out in May 2020. The lack of consistency has been attributed to seasonal factors at times but […]
Flat rolled and plate steel mill lead times continue to extend, according to the results of this week’s flat rolled and plate steel analysis conducted by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times have sustained 10 weeks or more for a month – the first time that has happened in the history of our records, […]
Steel buyers reported to Steel Market Update this week that the trend for steel mills to limit or totally remove any negotiations on spot steel prices continues. Steel pricing power is totally in the hands of the steel mills as supply continues to be less than the demand for mill products. Steel Market Update went […]
Steel prices will correct sharply as supply catches up with demand, potentially falling back to an average of $575 per ton ($28.75 per cwt) in 2022, according to one leading industry analyst. “This too will pass,” was the title chosen by Timna Tanners, metals and mining analyst at Bank of America, for her SMU Community […]