As expected, Steel Buyers Sentiment declined over the past two weeks from record highs registered in early September shortly after Steel Market Update’s annual Steel Summit. The previous results were no doubt influenced by the conference, making the six-point change since then more of a correction than a decline. The takeaway from the current index […]
Foreign steel imports continue to entice U.S. buyers with potential discounts of 17% to 42%, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. With domestic hot rolled averaging $1,950 per ton last week, foreign prices are theoretically $330 to $830 per ton cheaper than domestic prices after taking freight costs, trader […]
U.S. domestic steel demand remains strong, but supplies have been catching up and are largely in balance. These dynamics are starting to show as steel prices have seen a slower rate of rise and may be near a peak. Lead times are also contracting, with hot rolled now below nine weeks. These changes are largely a […]
Mill shipments of steel products rose 2.0% in July to 8.7 million tons, following an increase of 1.7% the month prior. Apparent supply jumped 3.6% in July after a 6.0% increase the prior month. July marks the fifth consecutive month of gains after February’s double-digit contraction. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment data from […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate products from the mills have all seen notable declines this month, with the exception of Galvalume, according to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week. The average lead time for hot rolled is now less than nine weeks, down from more than ten […]
Hot-rolled coil prices fell modestly this week for the first time in more than a year, lead times slipped below nine weeks for the first time since mid-April, and inventories continue to inch upward. Everyone is tired of hearing about a “tipping point” to this “unprecedented” market. But how else do you interpret this? Imports, […]
Flat Rolled = 51.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories continued to grow in August, while shipments rose from the lower levels seen in July. At the end of August, service centers carried 51.6 shipping days of flat rolled supply on an […]
Sheet prices continue to wobble with hot-rolled coiled prices actually declining, albeit modestly, for the first time in more than a year. The concern: that the market is at a peak – and perhaps heading down the other side. Hot rolled coil prices have been flat in prior weeks, but they have not declined since […]
Container ships are stacking up all around the U.S. as the ports are overwhelmed by surging imports of all types of goods. Delays at the ports may further extend the already-long lead times for the growing orders of foreign steel. Imports of all types of products from Asia, for example, increased 32.4% in the first […]
The first rule of predicting steel prices in 2021 is you don’t predict steel prices. I broke that rule last month when I called a peak. I still think I was right about that. But timing is everything. And when exactly we hit that peak remains a matter of debate. Some market participants think we’re […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Regional sheet markets have continued to exhibit divergent trends for not only prices, but also production and demand. The lone continent where sheet prices have yet to fall from a peak is North America. All other markets now have prices below their recent […]
Market momentum suggests that flat rolled steel prices are likely to continue moving up, at least in the short term, as hot rolled hit a new record high once again this week at an average of $1,955 per ton, up $20 over last week, according to SMU’s check of the market on Monday and Tuesday. […]
Steel prices continued to climb through the month of August, marking one full year of increasing prices. Hot rolled steel prices increased $45 per ton ($2.25 per cwt) throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,935 per ton ($96.75 per cwt) as of Tuesday. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator remains unchanged since the August 2020 adjustment to higher, indicating prices […]
As domestic hot rolled steel prices surpass $1,900 per ton, foreign steel imports continue to tempt U.S. buyers, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. While domestic prices rise week after week, foreign prices have remained steady or declined, holding potential discounts of 16% to 44% after taking freight […]
In mid-August, when lead times registered their first significant decline of the year, some interpreted it as a sign the pendulum had finally begun to swing the other way. Lead times have long been expected to shorten as the mills’ ability to supply the market finally catches up with demand. But any predictions of a […]
The U.S. manufacturing sector saw significant improvement in August, supported by steep upturns in production and new orders, according to the latest U.S. Manufacturing PMI data from IHS Markit. “U.S. goods producers continued to register marked upturns in output and new orders in August, as demand flourished once again. That said, constraints on production due […]
New orders, production and prices grew in August, while employment contracted and supply backlogs expanded, said the Institute for Supply Management in its August 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The Manufacturing PMI rose 0.4 percentage point in August to 59.9%, edging higher and indicating expansion in the overall economy for the 15th consecutive month […]
Flat-rolled steel prices are again mixed. Hot rolled is up $20 per ton, cold rolled is unchanged, and coated products are down $20-25 per ton. (Plate – following mill price hike announcements – is up a sharp $105 per ton.) The mixed signals are not a sure sign of the market inflecting. And Hurricane Ida […]
Despite some regional shifts in commercial construction, demand remains robust – while some project delays are creating backlogs that will likely drive additional construction activity in late Q4 and into early 2022, said members of the Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI). Demand for HVAC and other galvanized-intensive steel products remains strong, said members of […]
We often talk a lot about hot-rolled coil prices in Final Thoughts. I’d like to take a deeper dive into coated prices today. It’s been an almost straight line up for an entire year for flat-rolled steel prices. And galvanized is no exception. Galvanized base prices are at $2,070 per ton ($103.50 per cwt). That’s […]
Steel mills were supposed to see increased demand this summer as automakers ramped up production after putting the chip shortage in the rear-view mirror. That might no longer be the case. And now the COVID-19 pandemic is complicating matters further. Case in point: Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford Motor Co. is scaling back production of the F-150 […]
Earlier this month Steel Market Update celebrated our 13th anniversary of officially being in business. I say “officially” because I was publishing the newsletter for a few years prior to starting SMU as a legal entity. It has been a while since I last related the history of Steel Market Update. Where did the idea […]
Steel Dynamics’ top executive said he remains very optimistic about the market’s outlook, especially for the balance of 2021, but expects the trend to carry well into 2022. “I’m really bullish,” said Mark Millett, SDI’s president and CEO, during a fireside chat at SMU’s 2021 Steel Summit on Tuesday in Atlanta. “We’re booking for December […]
It’s not wise to call an inflection point based on one week of data. But I’m going to do it anyway. Because while SMU might have just one week of somewhat bearish survey data, there are plenty of other data points out there to say with some confidence that we’re at or near a peak […]
If steel buyers are concerned about lead times that are beginning to shorten and price increases that are beginning to slow, there is no sign of it in this week’s Steel Buyers Sentiment readings. The Current and Future Sentiment indexes remain at or near record highs as steel producers and distributors continue to enjoy record […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has never been higher despite concerns over the latest COVID variant and signs that the rate of rise in steel prices is beginning to slow. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index registered a new all-time high of +84 this week – the first time the index has broken […]
Construction firms are struggling to find enough qualified workers to hire even as they continue to be impacted by pandemic-induced project delays and supply chain disruptions, according to the results of a workforce survey conducted by the Associated General Contractors of America and Autodesk. The survey results underscore how the coronavirus pandemic has created constraints […]
With the exception of coated products, lead times for delivery of flat rolled and plate steel have shortened by a week or more – the first significant decline this year and a possible sign that rising steel prices are losing momentum. Lead times for spot orders of steel have extended continuously since the market bottomed last […]
Lead times have shortened noticeably based on Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week. But don’t read too much into that one data point. Other factors point to more of the same for steel prices, at least for a while. As reported elsewhere in this issue, lead times appear to have shortened by a […]
Settling on the direction of SMU’s Price Momentum Indicators has been an easy task for the past year. Prices on all products were clearly moving upward week after week as demand continued to outstrip supplies. Today, the market is changing, and the trend is less clear. Determining price momentum is considerably trickier. SMU does not […]