The domestic mills were beginning to make moves late last week to increase steel prices. Those efforts accelerated earlier today with the announcements out of ArcelorMittal USA (internal memo), Nucor (verbal & later in a letter to their customers), NLMK USA (letter to customers). These moves have, at least temporarily, halted the slide in flat […]
Domestic mill lead times appear to have found bottom and are stabilizing at these lower than normal rates, based on the results of the latest Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market analysis (survey). Benchmark hot rolled lead times managed to eek above 3.0 weeks for the first time in a number of months (late […]
We saw a mixed market for flat rolled steel prices this past week with some items moving lower and one (cold rolled) slightly higher than what we reported one week ago. Steel Market Update, which continues to have our Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral, saw the lower end of hot rolled as being $5 per […]
Steel Dynamics Inc. reported high levels of steel import and customer inventory reduced shipments for first quarter resulting in a 44 percent drop in consolidated operating income compared to fourth quarter. SDI adjusted net income was $40 million for first quarter 2015 with $2 billion in net sales. The adjusted income excludes $17 million in […]
According to Baker Hughes data from April 17th, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 954 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The last time the active U.S. count was this low was back on July 31, 2009 at 948 rigs. This week’s total rig count is down 34 rigs […]
SMU Service Center Apparent Excess The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released U.S. steel distributor shipments and inventories earlier today. We have a separate article which goes into detail in both flat and long products in this newsletter. This article focuses on our flat rolled steel Service Center Inventory Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for the month […]
There has been a “calming” to the market although that has not stopped the slow trickle lower we are seeing in flat rolled steel pricing. We saw hot rolled break through the $440 level although we were told by steel buyers that were able to get those kind of numbers the last $5 per ton […]
A little more than two weeks have passed since Steel Market Update adjusted our forward looking Price Momentum Indicator from “Lower” to “Neutral.” Looking back on the historical trend for flat rolled steel Price Momentum you have to go back a year before you would see our Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward “Higher” flat rolled […]
One of the questions asked during the flat rolled steel market analysis we conduct twice per month is regarding the spread between domestic and foreign steel pricing. When spreads are large, as they were for most of calendar year 2014, then you can expect a surge in imported steel. As the spread subsides the need […]
According to Baker Hughes data from April 2nd, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 988 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The last time the active U.S. count was this low was back in late-August 2009 at 968 rigs. This week’s total rig count is down 40 rigs when […]
This week Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early April flat rolled steel market survey. Based on the results of our inquiries we learned that domestic mill lead times continue to be quite short and well below the lead times seen one year ago. However, when looking at last year’s lead times, we must remember […]
According to our survey respondents not much has changed when it comes to how willing steel mills are to negotiate hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steel pricing. Lead times continue to remain short and order books weak. This has created a situation whereby steel mills have to be competitively priced in order to […]
According to our survey respondents not much has changed when it comes to how willing steel mills are to negotiate hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steel pricing. Lead times continue to remain short and order books weak. This has created a situation whereby steel mills have to be competitively priced in order to […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial markets: Last 2084.50 on the June contract […]
Prices eased off the hectic pace we have been watching and reporting on over the past few months. Benchmark hot rolled pricing remained the same as what we reported this past week at $460 per ton average. We are watching the lower end of the range carefully to see if the domestic mills will attempt […]
According to Baker Hughes data from April 2nd, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 1,028 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The rig count is down 20 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 11 to 802 rigs, gas rigs down 11 to 222 rigs, and […]
Last week Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral. We believe that change is coming and the wholesale slide we have seen in flat rolled steel prices will come to an end. We have not yet come to the conclusion that prices will reverse direction, rather that prices on hot […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 27th, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 1,048 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The rig count is down 21 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 12 to 813 rigs, gas rigs down 9 to 233 rigs, and […]
Earlier today, Steel Market Update adjusted our SMU Price Momentum Indicator from “Lower” to “Neutral.” Since November 16, 2014 the SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing toward “Lower” steel prices. Prior to November 16th we had a period of time where our Momentum Indicator vacillated between Neutral and Lower going back to May 2014. […]
The current downward cycle is getting a little “long in the tooth” (old) and there are signs that even with the short lead times and excessive inventories at the service centers the domestic steel mills are not chasing business but rather negotiating for specific pieces of business with known tonnages and want dates. The mills […]
This morning Steel Market Update (SMU) participated in the monthly galvanized steel conference call hosted by HARDI. The conference call is for those HARDI wholesalers who sell galvanized sheet and coil to the HVAC mechanical contractors around the United States and Canada. Since the last conference call held during the later days in February, galvanized […]
One of the most import keys being watched by buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are the steel mill lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products. Lead times, which are the amount of time it takes to get material produced once a purchase order is placed, have been running “short” […]
Based on the results from our most recent flat rolled steel market analysis which we conducted this past week, manufacturing companies and service centers reported domestic (USA and Canada) steel mills as willing to negotiate pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steel coils. As you can see by the graphic shared below, […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 20th, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 1,069 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The rig count is down 56 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 41 to 825 rigs, gas rigs down 15 to 242 rigs, and […]
According to the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report for March 2015, little change is expected in general business conditions during the next three months. PMA manufacturing members expect new orders to be the same or slightly higher in the coming months. Shipping levels were reported as steady in the March report and average […]
Not to toot our own horn too loudly, we came within a whisker of nailing both shipments and inventories in our last Service Center Inventory Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast. In our last forecast we indicated flat rolled shipments would be 2,253,000 tons and based on the MSCI data released earlier this week the actual number was […]
The quick slide to the bottom slowed over the last 7 days with cold rolled and Galvalume steel prices unchanged, galvanized is down $5 per ton and hot rolled is down $10 per ton compared to last Tuesday evening. Hot rolled is now within the range predicted by Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill […]
The domestic steel mills are resorting to adjustments in supply as a weapon against the chronic short lead times which are helping to push flat rolled steel prices lower and lower. The heavy lifting is being done by the integrated steel mills, especially by U.S. Steel which has taken three blast furnaces down over the […]
I thought I would wait for my Final Thoughts area of the newsletter before broaching the rumor mill which has been begun questioning at what point do the domestic steel mills go out into the market and announce price increases. I had a number of conversations over the past few days with both consumers of […]
Last week the pace of the decline in flat rolled steel prices was relatively modest, most being in the single digits and in some cases there was no decline in our averages at all. There was some talk about “the bottom” of the market around the industry but, the inventory over-hang was just there and […]