In September net job creation was 156,000 July was revised down by 23,000 and August revised up by 16,000. Using a 3MMA, the result for September was 192,000 down from 230,000 in August. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created as the brown bars since 1990. These numbers are seasonally adjusted […]
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its Short Range Outlook for 2016 and 2017. According to the new report, global steel demand will increase by 0.2 percent to 1,501 million tonnes in 2016. Steel demand contracted by 3.0 percent in 2015. The 2017 forecast is for global steel demand to grow 0.5 percent to 1,510 […]
Both manufacturing companies and flat rolled steel service centers are reporting more than 75 percent of the distributors as offering ever lower spot steel prices. The 75 percent level is important to Steel Market Update as we have pegged it as the level, when reached and maintained, as being the point of Capitulation. That point […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. August data for CPIP was released on Monday October 3rd. Overall this was a disappointing report with the growth of total construction having declined for five consecutive months and continuing to […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are becoming less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful both now and into the near future. SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been steady decline since peaking with an all time high of +71 in early July 2016. Based on our latest market trends analysis Current […]
Lead times continue to be at, or slightly below year ago levels. Steel Market Update conducted our flat rolled steel market trends analysis over the course of this week. As part of our questionnaire, submitted to almost 550 companies, we ask questions regarding lead times for new orders out of the domestic steel mills by […]
Global manufacturing is being hampered by weak trade said IHS Markit. The September JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit, rose slightly to 51.0 from 50.8 in August but failed to show any significant growth in the global manufacturing industry. The global report of 28 countries showed only eight reporting deteriorating manufacturing conditions in […]
Construction sector recovery may be at a plateau, says Stephen Sandherr , CEO of the Associated General Contractors of America. The press release from AGC for August construction spending follows: Construction spending held steady in August compared to July but is up nearly five percent for the first eight months of the year compared to […]
The Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed manufacturing expanding in September after contracting in August. The Institute for Supply Management reports the September PMI was 51.5 percent, up 2.1 percent from the previous month. New orders, production and employment gained 6, 3.2 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. The index for inventories of raw materials rose […]
Virgin Atlantic and LanzaTech are experimenting with a new jet fuel made from waste industrial gases from steel mills. Lanzanol, a low carbon ethanol fuel is derived via a fermentation process from carbon monoxide gases produced during steel manufacturing. The alcohol-to-jet process was developed in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL) with support […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
Last week’s Federal Reserve manufacturing reports showed mixed results in September. Kansas City, Dallas, and Richmond Federal Reserves all reported expansion in production levels but manufacturing conditions remained soft, especially in the Dallas and Richmond areas. Kansas City The Kansas City index came in at 6.0 for its best reading since December 2014 and its […]
The September Chicago Business Barometer indicated that production was at its highest level since January of this year. The Barometer rose 2.7 points to 54.2 on strong gains in production. The production index jumped 7.3 points to 59.8 while new orders remained unchanged from August. Backlogs remained below the neutral point of 50. Supplier deliveries […]
Durable goods orders were flat in August after making gains in July. In the latest report by the Department of Commerce, new orders for manufactured durable goods, excluding transportation were down 0.4 percent, and orders excluding defense were down 1.0 percent. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business spending which excludes both military […]
Steel Market Update spoke with two sources regarding the most recent complaint filed by the domestic mills against Vietnam and China for circumvention of duties (China) on cold rolled and CORE (corrosion resistant steels such as galvanized and Galvalume) products. One of the tenants behind the accusations made by the domestic steel mills is the […]
Last week Steel Market Update invited just under 600 steel executives to participate in our flat rolled market trends survey. As is normal with SMU surveys, we intentionally invite manufacturing companies and service centers to lead the way. Last week 45 percent of the respondents came from manufacturing and 44 percent from the steel distributors. […]
This area of the Steel Market Update newsletter is reserved for me to be able to provide my thoughts/opinions on a variety of subjects and our readers clearly know where these comments are coming from. I have been asked on a number of occasions to comment on “rumors” of a domestic mill flat rolled price […]
Flat rolled lead times continued to slip, according to those responding to last week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends analysis survey. Lead times are very close to where they were at this time last year when benchmark hot rolled was being reported at $660 per ton (September 16, 2015) and then proceeded to […]
We might as well get the debate started. The circumvention complaints against Vietnam have prompted comments and a healthy discussion is needed as the industry tries to wrap its collective mind around the facts of the latest request of the US Department of Commerce to stop Vietnamese exports of cold rolled and coated steels. We […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index dropped 14 points since we last measured Sentiment at the beginning of the month. The 14 point drop took the Current Index to +49, the lowest point for our index since the +44 reported during the first week of January 2016. The 14 point drop is […]
US Steel Canada has moved closer to a resolution of creditor protection proceedings and a sale of the company. The government of Ontario and Bedrock Industries announced they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to facilitate the restructuring of US Steel Canada. The MOU terms are confidential but Ontario says it has agreed to support […]
Nucor Corporation announced today that it has agreed to acquire Independence Tube Corporation (ITC), a leading independent manufacturer of hollow structural section (HSS) steel tubing, for $435 million, or approximately 6x average EBITDA over the 2013-2015 period. “Independence Tube is a natural fit with Nucor. Their business model is similar to ours with extremely efficient […]
Tenaris is recalling workers to its Tenaris Algoma Tubes factory in Sault Ste. Marie. The facility which make seamless pipe for the oil and gas industry has been idle since February 8 due to continued adverse market conditions in the energy sector. Tenaris Algoma Tubes said it will recall 120-150 employees and restart production in […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index remained below the zero “no growth” level at -2.0 in September for the second consecutive month. Analysts point to weak export orders and sluggish business investment by the manufacturing sector. New orders dropped eight points to -7.5 and shipments plunged 18 points to -9.4. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 106.70 in November 2014 and trended down until June this year when it experienced a two month turnaround followed by a slight decline in August to 104.402. The three month moving average (3MMA) had positive […]
Manufacturing activity improved in the Philadelphia area in September according to the latest manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. General activity and new orders expanded, surprising economists who expected a flat reading for the month. The headline index increased 11 points to 12.8, marking the first time the index has […]
The uncertainty in the market (called the “blahs” by a number of our steel sources) is affecting both buyers and sellers of steel. Steel mills have been doing all that they can in an attempt to keep flat rolled steel prices from slipping too far. One of our mill sources had a sense of humor […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a review of the flat rolled steel market in our quest to better understand market trends which affect steel pricing and purchasing. We invite approximately 550-600 steel people to participate in our questionnaires. Those invited come from the manufacturing segment of the industry (approximately 45 to 50 […]
Manufacturing companies and steel service centers concur about the status of spot steel pricing out of the service centers, spot flat rolled steel prices are dropping. Manufacturing companies reported rising spot prices during the entire second quarter and very early in the third quarter. We saw spot pricing out of the distributors begin to wane […]