The September Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the 51.7 percent reading in August. The PMI is at its lowest point since May 2013 when it registered 50.1 percent. The three month moving average has been see-sawing since June when it gained points after seven […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been slipping on a regular basis for a number of months. This has created a market where buyers expect lower prices each time they order steel, even if there is only a week or two between orders. This tends to keep order sizes modest and develops a feeding frenzy between […]
Both manufacturing companies and flat rolled steel service centers reported the percentage of distributors offering lower spot pricing on flat rolled steels as growing. This is a key indicator followed by Steel Market Update (and no other publication) as falling spot prices out of the distributors are usually due to high inventories leading to competitive […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
AISI: WASHINGTON, D.C. – American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) President and CEO Thomas J. Gibson today urged President Obama to “fight for manufacturing and for steel” during the U.S. visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. Gibson said his group wholeheartedly supports the positions outlined in letters sent this week to the Administration […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
Flat rolled steel buyers and sellers are less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful in both the current and future (three to six months into the future) market conditions. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index (Current) is being reported as +47, down 6 points over one month ago and well below the +64 […]
The Precision Metalforming Association reports that members are forecasting a slight downturn in business conditions in the next three months. The PMA Business Conditions report is a monthly economic indicator of manufacturing, sampling opinions of 127 U.S. and Canadian metalforming companies. Average daily shipping levels are expected to decrease slightly, said metalformers, while incoming orders […]
Last week we reported on a change in the cold rolled antidumping/countervailing duty scope language that has created some concern within the manufacturing community. The concern is related to changes which resulted in this being added to the scope language: “Subject merchandise includes cold-rolled steel that has been further processed in a third country, including […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call with HARDI wholesalers who supply galvanized sheet and coil products to the HVAC mechanical contractors across the United States and Canada. The wholesalers also supply other products such as air conditioners, furnaces and many other products to companies working on residential, multi-family and commercial construction […]
As we have mentioned in a recent article, there has been an intentional change in the scope language associated with the cold rolled and hot rolled antidumping and countervailing duty suits. The change in the language appears to add parts that are not part of Chapter 72 of the Harmonized Code (iron and steel). Of […]
Manufacturing indicators were mixed in the September Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Bank suggests that responses may have been influenced by “volatility in the stock market and international news reports.” The index for current manufacturing activity unexpectedly dropped from 8.3 in August to -6.0. It was the first […]
The legalese can be brain numbing when reviewing the documents involved with the various steel trade suits. However, large manufacturing companies have their attorneys go through the petitions and review the specific language in order to recognize when changes are made in order to protect themselves from surprises. If your company has not done so […]
The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Index declined for the second consecutive month, indicating a slowing in business activity for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index declined from -14.9 to -14.7. Prior to August,the index has been hovering around the zero point for four months indicating that business activity has been subdued. Both […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through August. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Manufacturing expanded at its slowest pace in two years, according to August data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). On the domestic front, consumer spending remains strong bolstered by low gas prices and job growth but manufacturing for export has suffered from ailing global economies and the strength of the US dollar. The export […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 173,000 jobs were added in August which was slightly below Moody’s Analytics expectation. The number will likely be revised upward in subsequent months. June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 44,000. The unemployment rate, calculated from a different […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. July data was released on Tuesday September 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our early September flat rolled steel market analysis. One of the areas we watch very closely is how are distributors handling spot flat rolled steel purchase prices to their manufacturing customers? We have found that as service center spot prices weaken, so do mill prices until they reach the […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to remain optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market conditions. However, we have seen a weakening of that position especially when we look at the numbers based on a 3-month moving average. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures how flat rolled […]
Trade discussion at the 2015 SMU Steel Summit Conference brought a number of conflicting views. Well before the Trade Panel began their formal presentations on Tuesday, attendees at the conference heard a number of comments on imports, steel overcapacity and whether the trade cases that have been initiated will help or hurt the US steel […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their August report on September 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index gained 0.67 points in June and 0.40 points in July. August gave back 0.57 […]
The Chicago Business Barometer stayed fairly steady in August, falling from 54.7 in July to 54.4. Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “It was pretty much steady as she goes in August with orders and output just about holding on to July‘s gains. While the slowdown earlier in the year looks temporary, we‘re […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Durable Goods report from the US Census Bureau showed a 2 percent increase month to month of new orders in July. New orders data was stronger than expected and the second month of gain after an advance in June of 4.1 percent. July’s increase was led by orders for automotive and military goods. The […]
The flat rolled steel market appears to be in a wait and see mode. Flat rolled steel prices continue to be stable to slightly weaker than what we saw a few weeks ago. Nothing dramatic is moving market momentum in one direction or another. Here is how we are seeing the market at this time: […]
As the deadline for contract expiration draws near (Sept 1), SMU thought a historical perspective on US Steel and USW negotiations might be in order. In the history of US Steel there have been only two labor work stoppages. The first was a historic 116 day strike by 500,000 steelworkers in 1959. The second occurred […]