The vehicle sales year had a good start in January with 16.7 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Light trucks are benefiting from lower gas prices and reached 55 percent of light vehicle sales, the highest since 2014. This is good for the US assembly plants because the US light truck production is […]
AK Steel announced it will build a Research and Innovation Center in Middletown, Ohio. The 120,000 square foot Center will replace an existing research facility already located in Middletown. The project is estimated at $36 million and will be constructed on a 15 acre site. The Research and Innovation Center will house 75 researchers, scientists […]
North Star BlueScope Steel, a joint venture between BlueScope Steel Ltd. and Cargill, Inc., increased both earnings and shipments in the first half of FY 2015 ending on December 31, 2014. According financial reports from 50 percent owner BlueScope Steel Ltd, which we multiplied by two, North Star BlueScope shipped 1 million tonnes (1.1 million […]
President Obama vetoed the Keystone XL Pipeline bill passed by the U.S. Congress. We have a full story on the veto on our website blog. We are trying to put more and more general interest stories, press releases, etc. on our website blog as opposed to publishing everything in our newsletters. This way we hope […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts our flat rolled steel market analysis. We invite slightly more than 600 qualified companies to participate in our questionnaire which consist of questions about demand, inventories, foreign imports, pricing, sentiment, service center pricing and more. We have been compiling information since late 2008 (SMU began as an official […]
Steel Market Update last Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast for flat rolled steel shipments and inventories called for shipments in January to exceed 2014 levels by 2 percent. Total flat rolled shipments for the month of January 2015 were projected by us to be 2,415,000 tons. In actuality, shipment levels were 1.6 percent higher than January 2014 […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured at +53 earlier today based on the results of our most recent flat rolled steel analysis conducted this week. The +53 is 7 points higher than what we reported at the beginning of the month. Our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures how buyers and sellers […]
Metal forming companies expressed less optimism in the February Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Out of a sampling of 119 metal forming companies in the U.S. and Canada, only 33 percent of participants expect economic activity to improve over the next three months, down from 45 percent in January. Incoming orders are expected […]
I was relieved to see the Sentiment 3MMA trend break after dropping for almost five straight months (since mid-September). I am not quite yet ready to say we have vanquished any growing pessimism within the flat rolled steel industry. But, breaking the streak was the first step. I have a number of concerns. The continuation […]
Manufacturing activity in New York expanded at a modest pace in February according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business index dipped two points to register 7.8. The index for new orders was down five points to 1.2 indicating flat activity. Shipments rose 4.5 points to 14.1. Delivery times were relatively unchanged […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
On Monday we will begin our mid-February flat rolled steel market analysis. The market has seen prices dropping over the past few weeks at a rate not seen for a number of years. Our survey will help us not only understand where price offers/orders are today but when we think the bottom will be reached. […]
The following article on the futures market was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and our instructor for Managing Price Risk I and II workshops. Financial Markets: Too bad we’re not all money managers as life would be pretty easy – just keep your customer long the market, sit back, and enjoy […]
Steel Market Update received a question from one of our readers regarding a comment we made in Tuesday evening’s issue during our analysis of flat rolled steel pricing. The comment was about the domestic mills negotiating away extras and how this was impacting transactional pricing. All of the indexes are suppose to take into consideration […]
Traders at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference told me hot rolled offers at in the $460 to $480 per ton range with little to no activity. It is not clear yet if the import offers will move lower from the $460 to $480 level. One trader told me that they were not taking any […]
Flat rolled steel buyers are resigned to a steel price spot market which takes benchmark hot rolled prices below the $500 per ton ($25.00/cwt) level. One of the large hot rolled service centers this morning told Steel Market Update that they were having a difficult time keeping up with the pace of the falling numbers. […]
January steel exports from China in rose to an all-time monthly record of 10.29 million tons, surprising analysts who were expecting reduced shipments this month. Steel shipments were expected to fall after China canceled the export tax rebate for Boron-added steel on January 1. Analysts predicted steel export volume would drop as much 30 percent […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]
In Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update we advised that our SMU Pricing Momentum Indicator continues to point to lower steel pricing over the next 30 days. One of our service center readers pointed out two reasons why he believes pricing will move lower when he wrote us, “Prices here are falling due to […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are less optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market conditions than what we saw just two weeks ago. The buyers and sellers who participated in this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis reported concerns regarding falling steel prices, bloated inventories and shrinking margins. […]
Dan DiMicco continues to make economic and political waves with his newest book, American Made: Why Making Things Will Return Us to Greatness. In his book, the outspoken former Nucor CEO and chairman tells how restoring American manufacturing to greatness will make America strong. Publisher St. Martin’s Press, says that DiMicco, with his usual blunt […]
The domestic steel mills and their ferrous scrap suppliers traditionally negotiate pricing on scrap to be delivered during the first few days of the new month. This means the mills and their suppliers are deep into negotiations regarding February scrap purchases right now. Last week the word amongst the “scrappies,” as well as their mill […]
The following article is normally produced just for our Premium level members. We are sharing the information today with all of our readers. The article is written by Peter Wright, consultant to Steel Market Update, Gerdau and the State of Wyoming. Peter, who is a metallurgist as well as market specialist, is also one of […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their January report on February 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January. The three month moving average has declined for […]
Global manufacturing continues to grow steadily with expansion in production and new orders in January. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly last month to 51.7 from 51.5 in December. “The PMI turned higher in January, including moderate gains in the indexes of output and new orders,” commented David Hensley, Director of Global Economics […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose 0.6 points in January to 59.4 from a revised reading of 58.8 in December. The increased manufacturing activity follows two consecutive months of declines. The index showed a modest increase in a new orders, order backlogs and production, driving employment to a 14-month high. Inflationary pressures eased for the fourth […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Steel Dynamics reported a record setting year and fourth quarter 2014. Steel shipments for the quarter were up 51 percent to 2.3 million tons from 1.5 million tons in Q3 2013. Steel fabrication had operating income of $22 million following a loss of $122,000 a year ago. For the full-year 2014 steel shipments totaled 7.4 […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth slowed in […]
“Where does the elevator stop,” is what one flat rolled steel buyer told Steel Market Update during a phone conversation about pricing held earlier today. “I haven’t hit the panic button yet, but my finger is close…” Flat rolled steel prices continued to tumble as some mill salespeople were telling their customers they have been […]