Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 11, 2014
If you are in any way involved with analyzing risk within your company I have two suggestions: 1) Sign up for the Armada Executive Intelligence Brief and, 2) Come to our Steel Summit Conference in September when Dr. Chris Kuehl, one of the Managing Directors and founders of Armada Corporate Intelligence, will address our conference.
In this afternoon’s e-newsletter, Armada pointed out that something very subtle has happened which has Washington, D.C. on edge. Turkey has asked for an emergency meeting of NATO (not the United Nations) due to the deteriorating situation in Iraq to their south. “Turkey went to NATO because it knows that NATO will act in the best interests of the associated group of allied nations…But, it now places the US and NATO allies in a difficult position, and reduces our political stance on Russia’s involvement in Ukraine if we do indeed use outside resources to aid the Iraqi Government….” They went on to point out that if there is any interruption in the supplies of oil coming from Iraq analysts believe the price of gasoline would jump to $4 per gallon (higher in California). Higher gas prices equate to lower consumer spending. The Armada report goes into a great deal of background and detail regarding the world and domestic economic situation. We are looking forward to Dr. Kuehl keynote presentation on September 3, 2014.
We are holding back announcing a couple of our panels as we are looking to get at the subject most being talked about as the summer ends. We are canvassing our readers – both members and those who read our website – and we will be putting a new poll on the front of our website asking for your opinion as to what program you would like to see that has not already been announced.
We had a discussion with John Eckstein this morning regarding building a “scab” in a blast furnace. I won’t go into specifics but, if you hear a mill talking about “scabs” this is what I have learned, “Building a scab on the interior wall is a dangerous proposition. What happens to that scab when the furnace gets back to the run rate…scabs are not a good thing to have. On the side wall, it can’t be controlled. At some point that scab can and will fall.” That would create more problems according to one of our Steel 101 metallurgists.
Speaking of Steel 101 our next workshop will be in Fort Wayne, Indiana in early October. We will be touring Steel Dynamics (SDI). We will have exact dates and details on our website probably in about a week.
We still have a couple of spots left open for our new Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution workshop which will be in Chicago on June 24 & 25, 2014. Details are on our website or you are welcome to give us a call: 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final thoughts
We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.
Final thoughts
I think all of us know that sometimes courtships go wrong. A misplaced word or deed and soon things can go sideways, and not in the prices sense. Such could be the case with Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel.
Final thoughts
We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.
Final thoughts
The phrase “political football” has been tossed around a lot lately. (Pun probably intended.) For the humble journalists at SMU who thought the week following Steel Summit would prove a quiet one… the news cycle had other ideas
Final thoughts
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.