Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 4, 2015
I am in Orlando attending the HARDI annual conference. I will be addressing their sheet metal committee a little later in the week. Also here is Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR). I look forward to hearing Alan speak both here and at the end of August 2016 when he will once again address our Steel Summit Conference.
Another one of the ITR economists will address our first Leadership Summit Conference which will be held in March at the PGA National Resort & Spa in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. We have begun to take reservations for the Leadership Summit which will have restricted attendance. Details are on our website and we will be rolling out more information about the presenters and our program as this week progresses.
In listening to our scrap sources late last week they seem convinced that prices are not only up for December but, prices will be up again in January. One large national dealer told us to expect 1st Quarter prices to be up $40-$50 per gross ton. Other dealers believe there will be a spark to prices but it will be short lived. The key will be if there is growing demand as we move into February and beyond. By then, the trade suits should be having a fairly significant impact on the import numbers and the inventory lying around the ports should be worked down. This is something to watch.
Comment made to me earlier this evening at one of the hospitality suites at this year’s HARDI conference. An executive with one of the wholesalers responded to the question asked in our final thoughts earlier this week with the comment that the market will always respond to supply.
A trading company at the same hospitality suite told us how depressing it has been to have to put out new steel offers every two weeks and the new offers always being lower than the last. They were not yet believers that we have achieved the bottom of the market.
Your comments are welcome: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final thoughts
SMU had the pleasure of attending the American Iron and Steel Institute's (AISI's) annual general meeting in Washington this week. It was a slow week in our nation's capital, so we were able to take a leisurely stroll around the National Mall and take in the sights. Just kidding. In fact, the meeting coincided with significant trade actions announced by the Biden administration. It included, among other things, additional tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.
Final thoughts
Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.
Final thoughts
What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.
Final thoughts
Last week we wrote about a brief lull in price movement, labeling it a period of wait and see. It did, in fact, turn out to be pretty brief. This week... things are little bit different. Perhaps right now we are more in a period of "hope and pray" or "Here we go, hold on to your hats."
Final thoughts
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)