Futures
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Hot Rolled Futures: Calm Before the Storm
Written by David Feldstein
September 29, 2016
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing Futures articles for Steel Market Update, Dave produces articles that our readers may find interesting under the heading “The Feldstein” on the Flack Steel website www.FlackSteel.com.
The flat US Midwest HRC futures curves drifted slightly lower, settling last night around $495/st. The futures market traded lightly last week with buyers few and far between. Only 7,840 tons traded between 9/22 and 9/28. Open interest stands at 344,800 short tons.
The HRC futures market is mired in low volatility. The announcements of the most recent trade case against Vietnam/China, recapitalization of Essar Algoma and OPEC’s production cut have failed to spark any movement in the curve. However, as you can see in the left chart above, while the curve periodically flattens, it’s like a spring coil waiting to pop. HRC futures are one of the most volatile commodities on earth and tend to trend for many weeks at a time. Looking at the HRC futures settlements above, the uptrend from the bottom in November, 2015 is being approached and, if broken through, could be an indication of another continued move lower as seen in 2015.
In other news, Worthington Industries announced better than expected earnings yesterday that included a $4m hedging gain. Clearly, HRC futures greatly helped their business weather this year’s crazy market. Is your business using futures to help mitigate risk?
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David Feldstein
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HR futures: Shifting risk profiles, emerging opportunities
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HR futures complex slips from June
The CME steel futures complex saw a slight decrease in activity from levels seen at the end of June. This has coincided with a notable decline in flat prices for the nearby futures contract, now August HRC, which is lower by $81 per short ton (st) since last writing on June 13. It settled at $672/st on July 17.
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HR futures: Bottom to prices?
A month ago, when we last presented this column, there was a surprising amount of optimism in the presumably imminent reversal of the downtrend in hot-rolled steel prices in the second half of this year.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures: ‘Gimme Shelter’
This chart of the rolling second-month CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) future dating back to the start of 2022 has been as volatile as a herd of “Wild Horses.”
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures: Market changes gears
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