Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 18, 2017
There is a wide variance between what the MSCI reported for flat rolled inventories this week and what Steel Market Update reported on Sunday. As we look at our numbers, the mega service centers tended to carry less inventories (based on months of supply, not in total tons) than the medium and smaller distributors that are included in our index. We continue to add service centers and to refine our data and data collection. If you are interested in participating in our index, you can reach me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
This evening, the U.S. Department of Commerce released new license data results through Sept. 19, and the licenses picked up over the past seven days. The new numbers have foreign steel imports moving toward another 3 million net ton month. We will have a full break-out of the report in Thursday’s issue of Steel Market Update.
I was discussing imports during the HARDI steel conference call earlier today. So, I want to let those interested in galvanized imports know that September is trending toward a 250,000+ net ton month. Hot rolled is trending toward 150,000+ net tons. Slabs licenses have picked up and are trending toward 700,000 net tons.
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John Packard
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Final thoughts
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
Final thoughts
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the HRC market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with hot-rolled coil.
Final thoughts
Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.
Final thoughts
What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]
Final thoughts
I’ve gotten some questions lately about whether the huge gap between domestic hot-rolled coil (HR) prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated is sustainable. I remember being asked similar questions about the wide spread between HR and plate that developed in early 2022. I thought at the time that there was no way that spread could hold. Turned out, I was wrong. That was humbling. And so I’m not going to make any bold predictions this time.