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    CRU: U.S. Anticipates Wave of Imports in Tight Steel Market

    Written by Estelle Tran


    By CRU Prices Analyst Estelle Tran, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service

    The strength and longevity of the current uptrend in steel prices has surprised many market participants, and mill maintenance outages are expected to keep lead times extended. The latest lead time survey on March 15-17 from Steel Market Update, which is part of CRU, pegged mill HR coil lead times at 8.8 weeks. Severe winter weather in mid-February created massive power outages and disrupted steel production in the Southern U.S. and Northern Mexico. With mills running behind schedule and controlling order entry, inventories continue to be at low levels.

    Estelle Tran

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.