• Skip to main content

    Product

    June 13, 2021

    SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Hits All-Time High

    Written by Michael Cowden

    SMU’s steel buyers’ sentiment index has hit its highest point ever – surpassing even the euphoria ahead of the unveiling of Section 232 tariffs and quotas in the first quarter of 2018. Stratospheric price gains, the potential for Section 232 to be removed from the EU by December, and a raft of new capacity coming online in North America has done nothing to dampen the post-pandemic cheer. While inflation fears are percolating through some corners of the market, most steel buyers remain convinced that unprecedented market strength in the first half of 2021 will continue into the second half. Could sentiment breach +80 if an infrastructure bill – decades overdue – actually happens?

    SMU asks steel buyers every two weeks how they view their company’s chances for success in the current environment and how they view their prospects three to six months in the future. SMU’s Current Buyers Sentiment Index stands +79 this week, up from +72 two weeks ago and narrowly besting the previous high of +78 in mid-January 2018. SMU’s Future Sentiment Index jumped to +69, up from +63 two weeks ago and marking the highest point since +77 in early February 2018. Both indices have been in the +60s and +70s for most of the year–a massive recovery from the negative territory charted in the second quarter of 2020 following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Michael Cowden

    Michael Cowden is editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He specializes in flat-rolled steel but has also reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube, and aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.

    Read more from Michael Cowden

    Latest in Product

    Drilling activity holds in the US, eases in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs held steady in the US and slowed in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count remained unchanged at 603 rigs this week, maintaining a 17-month high. Compared to this time last year, there are 55 more rigs in operation today. Canada’s count decreased by five to 217 rigs this week, slowing for the first time in four weeks. Still, activity is up compared to the same week of 2025, with 19 more rigs operating today.

    Brazilian pig iron trade with US stuck in doldrums

    The pig iron trade from Brazil into the US has been lackluster over the last month with minimal activity. Many players in the trade thought activity would increase after the International Iron Metallics Assn (IIMA) meeting in Chicago earlier this month, but it has not materialized so far. Part of the reason could be the US scrap buy for October stretched out longer than usual, as buyers and sellers haggled over price. Now that prices settled upward, there may be different ideas on where pig iron prices should settle.

    Nucor Plate Group doubles fuel surcharge to $40/ton for November

    Nucor Plate Group said it will increase its fuel surcharge to $40 per short ton (st) next month, effective for all shipments beginning Nov. 1. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker first said in April that the fuel surcharge was necessary to address rising costs, initially setting the surcharge at $10/st on April 16. The company had previously maintained the $10/st surcharge rate for four straight months through Aug. 17. But it has since doubled its rate in back-to-back months—increasing its surcharge to $20/st in September, followed by its Oct. 15 notice to $40/st. “We remain committed to providing reliable service and transparency as we adapt to changing market dynamics,” Nucor said in a letter to customers on Thursday evening. Nucor announces the surcharge amount on or about the 15th of each month for shipments beginning the following month.

    supply

    September service center shipments and inventories report

    US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.