SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Year Ends on a Down Note

Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week – our last of 2021 prior to the holiday break – shows the benchmark price for hot rolled finishing the year around $1,600 per ton ($80/cwt). That’s down another $70 per ton from last week and a total decline of $355 or 18% since peaking at $1,955 per ton in the first week of September. The HR price has not been this low since the end of May. Likewise, prices for cold rolled and coated products, as well as plate, are down another $20-50 per ton. The downtrend in steel prices has been clear for the past couple of months as the market reacts to seasonally slowing demand, the arrival of low-priced imports and building inventories. What remains unclear is how fast, and how far, steel prices will correct in the New Year. It’s important to note, however, that even after dropping by double-digit percentages, steel prices are still far above historical averages, and the industry’s prospects for 2022 are still positive. SMU’s Price Momentum Indicators are pointing Lower for all flat-rolled products – meaning further price declines are likely over the next 30 days – but the indicator for plate remains Neutral.

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $1,500-$1,700 per net ton ($75.00-$85.00/cwt) with an average of $1,600 per ton ($80.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased $80 per ton compared to last week, while the upper end decreased $60. Our overall average is down $70 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum on hot rolled steel is at Lower, meaning we expect prices to decrease over the next 30 days.