Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Written by Ethan Bernard


The end of the year is often both a time for reflection, and for looking ahead. You make sense of the ups and downs from January through December. Then you wipe off the old crystal ball, and try to make out what’s in store for the next 365 days. (Also, on a personal level, perhaps you even throw in a resolution or two. Maybe target 10k steps daily, or become an SMU market survey participant.)

Yes, here at SMU we more than understand that impulse to see into the future. But we’re not in the forecasting game… until now. That is, everybody is talking about 2024. We, however, are jumping to the real Future, like far away and stuff. Let’s take a (not-so-serious) look at the distant world of 2124, ONE HUNDRED YEARS FROM NOW. And, no, we are not going to mention robots or aliens. That’s so 2023!

International relations

Call us optimistic, but we think 2124 will be the year when the EU and US reach a final deal on The Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum. Yes, it’s been over a hundred years in the making, and generations of negotiators are not even sure what they are negotiating at this point. However, a general consensus has formed that if the can is kicked any further, said can will simply turn into dust.

‘X’ marks the spot

In a deal valued at $15 ga-gillion (inflation has not been kind to US dollar), Elon Musk has decided to buy U.S. Steel. Not the company, just the stock symbol. Musk, at this point only a disembodied consciousness uploaded into a quantum computer, has finally chosen to corner the market on all things X. While most general uses of the letter will require a licensing fee—in an act of charity—the word “Xmas” will be deemed fair use.  

Roads?

Have you ever looked at your smartphone with a disappointed look and said, “This is what I get for the future?” Well, not in 2124. Personal flying cars have gone mainstream, and into the jet stream. (Yes, the regulatory hurdles dragged on for about 100 years.) Sure, those hoping for highway infrastructure dollars might take a hit. However, steel companies will find a windfall in the new market for FCS (flying-car steel). Advanced, high-strength, and somehow anti-gravitational, look to FCS to be THE market of 2124.

Brown steel

With the success of net-zero initiatives by 2050 all over the world, an unexpected problem rears its head. Strange weather patterns appear and climate scientists warn that a new ice age is approaching. The only answer is, you guessed it: Recarbonization. Coal futures explode. The race will be on as the best and the brightest try to rediscover 19th century open-hearth steelmaking technology. Will they do it in time?

Steel Summit 2124

With its exponential growth over the previous 100 years, there will be only one venue left big enough to host Steel Summit 2124: Mars. Luckily, advances in the FCS market have really brought down the prices on interplanetary travel. Also, it turns out the weather on Mars is not all that different from Atlanta. (Once one takes into consideration the artificial atmosphere, of course.) We hope to see you, or your descendants, there!

In all seriousness, folks, all of us at SMU wish you and your loved ones a happy holidays and New Year, and are grateful for your business! On a less grandiose time scale, we hope to see you next month at our Tampa Steel Conference 2024. And, for those interested, here’s a more mundane SMU survey look at what you all will think will happen in 2024.

Ethan Bernard

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Final thoughts

What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.

Final thoughts

Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)

Final thoughts

Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)