Steel Prices

SMU price ranges: Sheet price drop accelerates

Written by David Schollaert & Michael Cowden

February 13, 2024

The pace of sheet price declines accelerated this week as steel buyers said that domestic mills were competing against each other while also coping with higher-than-expected import volumes.

“They are getting rid of the fluff. When you can pit 2-3 mills against each other, the fat margins get cut,” one industry source said.

Contributing to weakness in sheet prices were shorter lead times and weak February scrap prices. Some buyer sources in addition cited higher inventories and more material on order than usual. The result: Consumers are in no rush to return to the spot market. (SMU will release service center shipment and inventory data on Feb. 15.)

SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price now stands at $940 per short ton (st) on average, down $40/st from last week and down $105/st from the beginning of the year.

Cold-rolled (CR) and coated products followed a similar downward trajectory. Our cold-rolled coil price is at $1,195/st on average, down $55/st from a week ago. Galvanized base prices stand at $1,205/st, down $45/st. Galvalume base prices also fell $45/st to $1,230/st on average.

SMU’s plate prices stand at $1,330/st on average, down $30/st from last week. The declines there follow a price decrease announcement from Nucor. And some sources predicted that the steelmaker might announce another round of plate price cuts.

SMU’s momentum indicators for all sheet and plate products remain pointed lower.

Hot-rolled coil

The SMU price range is $900–980/st, with an average of $940/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range was down $20 per st vs. one week ago, while the top end of our range was down $60/st week over week (w/w). Our overall average is $40/st lower from last week. Our price momentum indicator for HRC remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Hot rolled lead times: 3–8 weeks

Cold-rolled coil

The SMU price range is $1,120–1,270/st, with an average of $1,195/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was $80/st lower vs. the prior week, while the top end of our range was down $30/st. Our overall average is down $55/st from last week. Our price momentum indicator for CRC remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Cold rolled lead times: 6–9 weeks

Galvanized coil

The SMU price range is $1,140–1,270/st, with an average of $1,205/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was down $60/st vs. the prior week, while the top end of our range was $30/st lower w/w. Our overall average is $45/st lower than the week prior. Our price momentum indicator for galvanized remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,237–1,367/st with an average of $1,302/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized lead times: 5–10 weeks

Galvalume coil

The SMU price range is $1,160–1,300/st, with an average of $1,230/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was $90/st lower w/w, while the top end of our range was unchanged from the prior week. Our overall average was down $45/st when compared to the previous week. Our price momentum indicator for Galvalume remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, grade 80 benchmark: SMU price range is $1,454–1,594/st with an average of $1,524/st FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume lead times: 7–8 weeks

Plate

The SMU price range is $1,280–1,380/st, with an average of $1,330/st FOB mill. The lower end of our range was down $40/st vs. the week prior, while the top end of our range was down $20/st w/w. Our overall average is down $30/st vs. one week ago. Our price momentum indicator for plate remains lower, meaning SMU expects prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Plate lead times: 4-7 weeks

SMU note: Above is a graphic showing our hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is also available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.

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Michael Cowden

Michael Cowden is managing editor for Steel Market Update. Cowden has covered the steel industry since 2007. He has since 2014 specialized in flat-rolled steel but has previously reported on steel long products, steel pipe and tube as well as aluminum. Before joining SMU, Cowden held reporting jobs at Fastmarkets AMM in Chicago - where he was involved in launching AMM's daily hot-rolled coil index, the Associated Press in Pittsburgh, and the Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh. He has also worked as a copy editor and in marketing at the University of Chicago Press. Cowden has a BA in English from the University of Chicago and an MSJ journalism from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. Contact him at michael@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7872.

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