Miller on scrap: Mid-month dealer sentiment focus on uncertainty

The Mid-American ISRI Chapter held its annual meeting in St. Louis this month. Over the years, this event has become a “must attend” for the scrap community nationwide.

According to several attendees whom SMU spoke with after the meeting, there was uncertainty about where the ferrous scrap market was heading.

There was concern about domestic demand with sheet prices falling and at least one major mill outage in March. This could have a weakening effect on scrap prices. On the other hand, some scrap buyers are still seeking scrap, especially for #1 busheling in the Southeast region. It is unclear if there is enough supply of industrial scrap to go around.

Another concern is the decrease in prices for exports into Turkey. In recent days, European cargoes of HMS 80/20 to Turkey have dropped to $406 per metric ton (mt) CFR. The last cargo sold from the US was at $414/mt. This number could drop on the next round of sales, if there is no resistance from the export community.

With the month of March approaching, the supply of obsolescent scrap should increase on into April as “spring cleanup” will be well underway. These are seasonally weak months for scrap. The scrap community seems to be expecting prices to fall in March and April, the uncertainty being by how much. SMU will continue to keep our readers updated on what actually transpires.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.