January steel exports rebound from previous month’s low

Monthly averages

Looking at exports on a 3-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the monthly fluctuations. Shipments had trended downward throughout the second half of 2023, reaching an 11-month low in December. The 3MMA changed course as it entered the new year, now averaging 703,734 st through January.

Exports can be annualized on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to further dampen month-to-month variations and highlight historical trends. From this perspective, steel exports have overall trended upwards since mid-2020. January’s 12MMA figure surpassed 800,000 st, now the highest 12MMA recorded since October 2018.

Exports by product

Exports of all major flat-rolled steel products showed significant month-on-month (m/m) increases from December to January, except for hot-rolled sheet, which declined 3%.

Notable year-on-year (y/y) increases were seen in exports of cold-rolled sheet, plate in coils, galvanized sheet, and other-metallic-coated products, with each up between 15-39%.

On a 3MMA basis, January saw trend reversals in galvanized sheet, plate in coils, and other-metallic-coated products, with increasing trade levels for each product. The remainder (cut plate, hot-rolled sheet, and cold-rolled sheet) were relatively unchanged from the month prior.

Note that most steel exported from the US is destined for USMCA trading partners Canada and Mexico.